Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Editor's Note: Sunday's DFS stack will be updated later in the week. In the meantime, we have our top stack to target for the Thanksgiving Day slate below.

(Thursday) Contrarian option: Detroit Lions

Facts:

  • The Lions' offense has been strong most of the year, averaging 27.2 points per game, but they have only been pass-heavy in terms of DBOE (dropback over expectation) once, and that was one of their lowering-scoring affairs against the Bucs in Week 6.
  • Over the last two weeks, We have seen Jahmyr Gibbs handle the majority of the RB snaps (58%, up from his season average of 45%), leading to target share marks of 16% and 19% and a TPRR (targets per route run) of 26%, all borderline elite marks.
  • Sam LaPorta is fifth in the league in terms of total fantasy points for TEs at 12.3 PPR points per game, but his minimum outcome so far this year is the second-highest at the position at 4.8. 

Stack info (DraftKings)

Lions

Detroit's Fantasy Football Forecasts:

  • Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): This combo leads with a substantial 22.2% chance at a Top Finish, indicating a strong likelihood of securing the highest ranks. With 60+ potential at 27.90%, it is most likely to achieve high-scoring outputs, reflecting its high ceiling for fantasy points.
  • Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Reynolds): The Top Finish percentage is lower at 5.30%, but it offers a still respectable chance of hitting the top of the leaderboard. For 60+ rate, It has a 10.40% chance of crossing the 60-point threshold, indicating decent upside.
  • Combo 3 (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): This combo only a 0.20% chance at a Top Finish, signaling significantly lower upside. As far as 60+ potential, the likelihood here diminishes further to 0.50%, showcasing its status as the most speculative play of the three.

Nov 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) is introduced before the game against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Ceiling and High-Performance Potential:

  • Premium Option (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): Undeniably, this is the premier selection for those targeting peak performance. The investment here aligns with the highest probability of top-tier finishes and scoring prowess.
  • Strong Balance (Goff/St. Brown/Reynolds): For those balancing cost with potential, this mid-range combo offers a meaningful chance at top finishes and a good shot at high-scoring games.
  • Budget Strategy (Goff/Reynolds/LaPorta): As a cost-saving measure, this combination might appeal to those willing to take on more risk for the chance at a decent performance, knowing that the probability of a top finish and explosive scoring is markedly lower.

An important caveat for this slate is that the Cowboys are a very clear — and very popular — option for stacks. But the Lions have a similarly skinny target tree and a team total that is less than a field goal behind.

Considering the upside of both teams and the ownership discount you should get with the Lions, they make for a much better option in large-field GPPs. However, in small-field tournaments or cash games, you are likely better off with a Dak/Lamb/Cooks stack as your base.

Sunday Stack: Coming soon…

Stacks