High-Value Facts & Stacks. Best Week 14 NFL DFS Stacks
Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!
In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.
Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!
All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.
Contrarian option: Detroit Lions
Facts:
- The Lions are averaging 27.25 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the league, and are doing it with the second-lowest rate of field goal drives at just 1.08 per game (MIA leads with .92).
- Of all tight ends with 100+ routes, Sam LaPorta is sixth in the league in Targets per Route Run (TPRR) at 24%, and he’s doing it on 80% route participation, which is better than all but T.J. Hockenson above him.
- While Jared Goff is no world-beater, he is incredibly consistent and has had five games of 20+ fantasy points this year to show some upside for a modest price when the matchup is right.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta): This option sits at the top of the price scale at $20,700 and is distinguished by a Ceiling of 61.51, suggesting the highest potential for peak performance out of the three.
- Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Raymond): With a $17,600 investment, the Ceiling dips slightly to 50.23. The trade-off for the lower price is a modest decrease in ultimate scoring potential.
- Combo 3 (Goff/Raymond/LaPorta): The most accessible at $15,500, it provides a Ceiling of 45.08. While the most budget-friendly, it has the lowest expected top-end scoring performance.
While there is a clear premium on the top-end stack, you do get the benefit of justified drops in cost and ownership as you go through the different combos. It’s worth noting that Combo 1 is not necessarily all that expensive relative to the rest of the slate, so it should be the default you land on.
Detroit Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) and running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) take the field before action against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field, Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023.
Top Finish and High Scoring Potential
- Combo 1 (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta):
- Top Finish: At 9.5%, this combination leads the charge, indicating it has the most substantial chance among the three to finish at the very top.
- 60+% Potential: At a robust 19.4%, it illustrates a significant opportunity for achieving high-scoring games.
- Combo 2 (Goff/St. Brown/Raymond):
- Top Finish: It holds a 1.4% chance — substantially lower than Combo 1 — but still demonstrates potential.
- 60+% Potential: The likelihood stands at 2.5%, which is notably less than Combo 1 but not negligible.
- Combo 3 (Goff/Raymond/LaPorta):
- Top Finish: At a mere 0.1%, this combo has a slim chance of clinching the top finish, reflecting its status as the underdog.
- 60+% Potential: Similarly, the probability here is just 0.5%, indicating a much lower expectation for high-scoring performances.
Combo 1: Premium Upside
This trio represents the pinnacle of performance within this group. Its high Ceiling and Top Finish percentages suit those aiming for the highest possible outcome with their stack.
Combo 2: Even Middle
It balances affordability and potential, offering a reasonable Ceiling for those looking to save on costs without entirely forgoing the chance for a high score.
Combo 3: Budget for Spending Elsewhere
As the most economical selection, it is apt for players looking to spread their budget across other areas of their lineup, albeit with a recognition of its lower Ceiling and Top Finish likelihood.
Not only are all of the Lions' options relatively cheap, but they are all expected to be very low-owned. None of these combos come with a collective ownership projection of above 10%, making them a perfect option for those who want to absorb high ownership elsewhere in their lineup. Look to utilize this stack in large-field GPPs for easy leverage.
Popular option: Kansas City Chiefs
Facts:
- While Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league, he has been playing a lot more like Jared Goff this year than Tom Brady. In fact, Mahomes and Goff are nearly identical in aDOT (7.1 vs. 7.0), completion percentage (68%), and fantasy range (floor of 10 fantasy points, median of 19.6 vs. 18.1).
- Travis Kelce is having a down year and may be on the downslide to retirement, but he still leads all tight ends in the league in terms of median points per game (16.8) and has the second-best TPRR at 25% (behind only Trey McBride at 26%).
- One thing that has remained elite for the Chiefs is their play calling, as they have had a positive DBOE in all but two games this year while holding a 66% dropback rate, which makes them one of just a handful of teams designated as pass-heavy.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Mahomes/Rice/Kelce): Carrying the highest salary at $21,100, this combination stands out with a Median score of 48.61 and the highest Ceiling at 60.76, promising the potential for explosive fantasy performance.
- Combo 2 (Mahomes/Watson/Kelce): This set requires a $19,300 investment with a Median score of 40.80. Its Ceiling sees a reduction to 51.0 but still provides considerable scoring capacity.
- Combo 3 (Mahomes/Rice/Watson): The most budget-friendly at $16,900, it presents a Median score of 38.72. However, the Ceiling dips to 48.40, so it’s the most modest in peak-scoring expectations.
Gone are the days of the Chiefs being wholly reliant on a single receiving option to find upside, as they don’t have a true WR1 on the team, and Kelce is showing his age. Nevertheless, Mahomes represents the pinnacle of upside at QB, so people will still be flocking to Chiefs stacks as they project for the most ownership on the slate.
Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) breaks up a pass intended for Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) during their football game Sunday, December 3, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
Top Finish and High-Scoring Potential
- Combo 1 (Mahomes/Rice/Kelce):
- Top Finish: Leads with a 7.7% chance, indicating a strong likelihood of achieving the highest ranks.
- 60+% Potential: Boasts a 15.1% chance, suggesting a significant opportunity for hitting top-scoring games.
- Combo 2 (Mahomes/Watson/Kelce):
- Top Finish: Offers a 1.1% chance, which is considerably lower than Combo 1.
- 60+% Potential: At 3.2%, the likelihood is less than Combo 1 but indicates there's still a chance for high scoring.
- Combo 3 (Mahomes/Rice/Watson):
- Top Finish: With only a 0.2% chance, this combination is a long shot for reaching the top finish, which correlates with its lower Ceiling.
- 60+% Potential: The chance stands at a mere 1.1%, indicating a much lower expectation for high-scoring performances.
Combo 1: Reliable Medians with Upside
It is the premier choice for those aiming for the highest potential with their stack. With the highest Ceiling and a solid chance for both Top Finish and high-scoring games, it is suitable for those willing to allocate a significant portion of their budget for a single combination.
Combo 2: Risky with Leverage
It represents a strategic choice for those looking to balance investment and scoring potential. While it offers a lower Ceiling than Combo 1, it maintains a reasonable shot at top-scoring games.
Combo 3: Large Field Flyer
It’s tailored for the cost-conscious without entirely forfeiting the chance for a decent performance. This combination could be a clever play for those diversifying their investments across their lineups, although it has the lowest projected high-end output.
Value option: Chicago Bears
Facts:
- Justin Fields has a rush rate greater than 30% since returning from injury in Week 11, resulting in 22 total rushing attempts, which correlates well with his ceiling.
- While D.J. Moore only averages around 17 fantasy points per game, his role is elite, with 31% of the team’s targets and 45% of the air yards. Those marks resemble A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Mike Evans.
- The Bears are one of the few teams in the league that could be justified as run-heavy, as they have not had a single game this year with a DBOE above balanced and have three instances of being run-heavy.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Fields/Moore/Kmet): This combination is priced at $17,600 and features a Median score of 45.92. It's a mid-tier investment option that offers substantial upside.
- Combo 2 (Fields/Moore/Mooney): Slightly less expensive at $16,600, it projects for a Median score of 40.37, indicating a moderate decline in expected performance for a bit of savings.
- Combo 3 (Fields/Mooney/Kmet): The most budget-friendly at $14,400, it presents a Median score of 35.23, which is the lowest but significantly more affordable than the other options.
It is worth noting here that the main reason the Bears are even viable this week is because of price, not their median expectation. Having access to Fields and his two main receiving options at less than $18,000 on DraftKings is an excellent starting point and leaves a lot of room for upside pieces elsewhere.
Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) leaves the field after the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Finish percentiles
- Combo 1 (Fields/Moore/Kmet):
- Top-5 Finish: Leads with 20.9%, suggesting a strong likelihood of placing among the elite.
- Top-10 Finish: At 38.4%, it shows the highest potential of all combos to finish in the top tier.
- 3x Return: This combo shines with a 24.8% chance, the highest among the three, reflecting its potential for a significant return on investment.
- Combo 2 (Fields/Moore/Mooney):
- Top-5 Finish: Drops to 8.8%, which is considerably lower than Combo 1 but still presents a reasonable chance for a high finish.
- Top-10 Finish: At 21.2%, it's about half as likely as Combo 1 to hit the top ranks.
- 3x Return: The chance is reduced to 16.8%, suggesting moderate potential for tripling your investment.
- Combo 3 (Fields/Mooney/Kmet):
- Top-5 Finish: The likelihood further decreases to 1.5%, indicating a marginal chance for a high finish.
- Top-10 Finish: Has a 6.4% chance, which is significantly lower, suggesting this combination is less likely to secure top standings.
- 3x Return: At 15.9%, it's slightly lower than Combo 2, yet still a decent figure given the combo's lower cost.
