Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: San Francisco 49ers

Facts:

  • Of the top 5 QBs in fantasy scoring, only Brock Purdy has a Yards per Completion of above 8.0. His 9.7 yards per competition blows away every QB in the league with the second-highest mark being Tua Tagovailoa at 8.6.
     
  • Even though the 49ers have just the third-highest scoring mark in the league, their 3.6 touchdown drives per game leads the league (second-highest is MIA at 3.53). They are doing this with just 51% of the total time of possession.
     
  • Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are the 12th- and 16th-best receivers in fantasy points per game this year at 16.5 and 15.8, respectively, which helps to show how condensed this offense is and why it makes for such an intriguing stack each week.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack info

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk): This combination commands a premium salary of $21,700 and leads with a Median score of 53.28. It's expected to offer a strong performance, indicated by the highest projected Median of the three.
     
  • Combo 2 (Purdy/Samuel/Kittle): With a salary set at $20,300, the Median score is a bit lower at 51.62. This slight reduction in the Median score comes with a noticeable cost saving, offering a more balanced financial option.
     
  • Combo 3 (Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle): The most economical at $19,600, it presents a Median score of 50.62, which is only slightly lower than Combo 2, suggesting a good value for the money.

Top Finish and High Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk):
    • Top Finish: With an 11.9% chance, this combination has the highest likelihood among the three of achieving the top rank, mirroring its high Median score.
    • 60+% Potential: At 30.3%, it also has the highest probability of exceeding the 60+% score threshold, further indicating its potential for high performance.
       
  • Combo 2 (Purdy/Samuel/Kittle):  
    • Top Finish: Possesses a close 11.1% chance, slightly lower than Combo 1, but still promising for top-tier finishes.
    • 60+% Potential: At 25.1%, the likelihood is somewhat reduced but remains substantial for surpassing the 60+% score threshold.
       
  • Combo 3 (Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle): 
    • Top Finish: Has a 6.9% chance, notably lower than Combos 1 and 2, indicating a reduced but still present potential for the highest rank.
    • 60+% Potential: The chance drops to 21.80%, the lowest of the group but still indicative of a reasonable expectation for high-scoring games.

Combo 1: Great Upside and Savings

Represents the top-tier choice for those targeting the best average output, as suggested by its high Median score. It also offers the greatest chance for both a Top Finish and surpassing the 60+% mark, suitable for players willing to invest more for potentially higher rewards.

Combo 2: Nearly Identical with Lower Ceiling

Serves as a middle ground, offering a slightly lower Median and top finish probability for a more modest salary. Its 60+% potential is still attractive, positioning it as a solid choice for those looking for a balance between cost and performance.

Combo 3: High End Budget Option

As the most budget-friendly option, it might appeal to those who wish to allocate their funds more diversely. While it has the lowest Median score and probabilities for Top Finish and 60+%, it still maintains competitive potential relative to its lower cost.

It looks like the people at DraftKings were asleep behind the wheel with Brock Purdy’s price this week. He is priced as the eighth-most expensive QB but has the third-highest median expectation and a killer matchup with the Washington Commanders. This clear misprice is worth exploiting this week even if the 49ers expect to be one of the highest-owned stacks on the slate. Pairing Purdy with any of his top three receiving options (Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle) is going to give you all the upside you need in GPPs.

Contrarian Option: Philadelphia Eagles

Facts:

  • Even with some relatively low-scoring outcomes recently, A.J. Brown still leads the league in target share at 32% and has a pristine aDOT of 12.36, which gives him 47% of the total air yards for the Eagles.
     
  • From Weeks 1-8, the Eagles were averaging 28 points per game to go with 69 plays per game. In Weeks 9-16, however, that scoring average has dropped to 24 points per game while their total plays on average sits at just 62.
     
  • The Cardinals have allowed the second-most points in the league at 403 (Washington Commanders have given up 453) while allowing the fourth-most passing TDs at 27.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack info

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith): This lineup has the highest salary at $24,200 and stands out with a Median score of 52.32. It suggests a robust average performance level and is justified by the highest salary point.
     
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert): Slightly less expensive at $21,700, it has a close Median score of 49.03. The drop in salary comes with a slight decrease in expected median output, offering a balanced option.
     
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert): The most budget-conscious at $20,400, it offers a Median score of 44.97, which is lower but could be a strategic pick for those aiming to spread their budget across other areas of their fantasy lineup.

There was some discourse around Jalen Hurts and the PHI offense for a while, but he’s still the No. 2 overall fantasy QB in the league at 359 fantasy points (Josh Allen has 363). Especially facing an Arizona defense that has been susceptible to scoring this year, it’s justifiable to pay the prices on this stack for the upside it holds. Especially if it comes in lower owned than the 49ers stacks like we expect.

Top Finish and High-Scoring Potential

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith):
    • Top Finish: With an 11.1% chance, this combination is the most likely to secure the highest ranks, aligning with its strong Median score.
    • 60+% Potential: At 29.2%, it indicates a significant chance of surpassing the 60+% threshold, underlining its high-scoring potential.
       
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert):
    • Top Finish: Possesses a 5.5% chance, which is notably lower than Combo 1 but still substantial for top-tier finishes.
    • 60+% Potential: At 16%, the likelihood is reduced compared to Combo 1 but indicates a reasonable expectation for high-scoring games.
       
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert):
    • Top Finish: Holds the lowest chance at 2.30%, suggesting a smaller likelihood of achieving the top finish.
    • 60+% Potential: The probability stands at 9.5%, which is significantly lower, suggesting that high-scoring outcomes are less likely compared to the other two combos.

Combo 1: Superior Upside and High Cost

This is the premium choice for those looking for a high average output with the highest Median score. It also presents the greatest opportunity for a Top Finish and has the highest probability of achieving 60+% in points, suitable for players prepared to invest more for potentially higher rewards.

Combo 2: Good Medians and Upside

Represents a middle-ground solution, offering a slightly lower Median and Top Finish chance for a modestly reduced salary. Its 60+% potential is still attractive, making it a solid choice for those seeking a balance between cost and potential output.

Combo 3: More Risk for Less Cost

As the most economical option, it's tailored for budget-sensitive players who still seek decent performance potential. The lower Median and probabilities for Top Finish and 60+% make it a riskier play but one that could pay off with the right overall strategy.

Value option: New York Giants

Facts:

  • Granted, Tyrod Taylor has only averaged 37% of the snaps this year, but he has had a strong aDOT of 9.0 and a completion percentage of 62%. Compare that with Tommy Devito who had an aDOT of just 6.4 and a 64% completion rate, and this offense looks to have a bit more explosiveness with Tyrod at the helm.
     
  • In the first eight weeks of the season, the Giants averaged just 12 points per game. Since Week 9, with changes at QB and return of some personnel, they are averaging 17 points per game, though the plays per game is still very low at 56.57 which comes from a low time of possession.
     
  • While Darius Slayton has had a relatively lackluster TPRR all year (just 13%), his aDOT of 12.19 has led to some big play potential, and he has 10-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games on top of two long TD receptions.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack info

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Taylor/Robinson/Slayton): This combination is priced at $12,000, with a Median score of 36.85. It represents a moderate level of expected performance, which is in line with its budget-friendly salary.
     
  • Combo 2 (Taylor/Robinson/Waller): Set at $13,000, the Median score sees a slight decrease to 36.01. The slight increase in salary from Combo 1 correlates with a small decrease in Median score.
     
  • Combo 3 (Taylor/Slayton/Waller): Priced at $12,500, this lineup shows the lowest Median score of 34.88, aligning with its position as the second most affordable option.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Taylor/Robinson/Slayton): 
    • Top 10 Finish: Has a 7.1% chance, suggesting a modest probability of securing a top-tier finish.
    • 4x% Return: At 9.6%, it leads the potential for quadrupling the investment, which complements its Median score.
       
  • Combo 2 (Taylor/Robinson/Waller): 
    • Top 10 Finish: Holds a 5.1% chance, indicating a lower probability for a top-tier finish compared to Combo 1.
    • 4x% Return: With a 2.5% rate, the potential for a high return diminishes slightly but remains within reach.
       
  • Combo 3 (Taylor/Slayton/Waller):
    • Top 10 Finish: The likelihood is at 4.0%, the lowest among the three, consistent with the lowest Median score.
    • 4x% Return: At 4.0%, this combo offers a competitive potential for a high return, interestingly matching its Top 10 Finish probability.

Combo 1: Provides a solid balance between cost and expected performance, with the highest Median score and the best chance for a 4x return. It's a suitable choice for those looking to maximize potential without overspending.

Combo 2: While slightly more expensive, it offers a small compromise in Median score and top-10 finish potential. The 4x% Return rate is lower, making it a choice for those who may be betting on the individual upside of players like Waller.

Combo 3: Despite having the lowest Median, it still maintains a competitive chance for both a Top 10 Finish and a 4x return, which could make it an appealing option for those looking for a potential high reward at a slightly reduced cost.

You aren’t playing this stack with the expectation that they nuke the slate and outscore stacks like the 49ers and the Eagles. You are playing this stack hoping for them to put up 60 fantasy points while you stack up all the expensive plays around them for their ceiling. That said, this stack will come with a little bit of ownership, so you may want to consider having one or two more pieces of relative value around it in larger field contests.