High-Value Facts & Stacks. Best Week 3 NFL DFS Stacks.

Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Minnesota Vikings

Facts:

• Justin Jefferson broke the record for the most receiving yards by a rookie and is on pace to shatter his previous season marks through two weeks with averages of 154 yards and 10 receptions per game.
• The Vikings have the highest average Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) in the league at 15% and rank in the top five in Plays Per Minute Over Expectation (PPMOE) at .06, giving them some of the highest upside in the league for fantasy.
• Jordan Addison is still playing relatively limited snaps (78% snap share in week 2) but continues to have much better utilization than teammate K.J. Osborn, so expect him to pass him in the pecking order soon.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Cousins/Jefferson/Hockenson): The Median score is 57.89 for $22,700 in salary.
• Combo 2 (Cousins/Jefferson/Addison): The Median score is 57.44 for $21,700 in salary.
• Combo 3 (Cousins/Addison/Hockenson): The Median score is 47.49 for $18,900 in salary.

When you look at the Median score per unit of salary, the first combo provides approximately 57.89 / $22,700 = 2.55 points per unit of Salary.

The second combo offers 2.65 points per unit of salary, making it the most cost-efficient, while the third combo checks in at 2.51.

The second combo is marginally more "efficient" from a cost-to-median-score perspective.

Finish percentiles

• Combo 1 (Cousins/Jefferson/Hockenson): 19.92% Top Finish and 51.60% Top-5 Finish.
• Combo 2 (Cousins/Jefferson/Addison): 18.80% Top Finish and 48.64% Top-5 Finish.
• Combo 3 (Cousins/Hockenson/Addison): 2.92% Top Finish and 18.92% Top-5 Finish.

High salary, high reward

This combo has the highest salary of $22,700 but also provides the top median score of 57.89. The likelihood for a Top Finish (19.92%) and a Top-5 Finish (51.60%) is significant, indicating its substantial upside. In fact, this combination has the highest Top Finish% and Top-5 Finish% of any stack on the slate.

Moderate salary, moderate reward

While having a slightly lower salary at $21,700, this combo still offers a comparable Median score of 57.44 and a solid chance at a high finish. It's a viable alternative to the first combo if you want to save a bit on the salary while still aiming for high rewards.

Low salary, lowest reward

With the lowest salary of $18,900, this combo offers a significant cost saving but at the expense of lower performance expectations. The chances for top finishes are considerably lower, making this combo a more budget-friendly but riskier option.

Contrarian option: Miami Dolphins

Facts:

• Based on WR usage, Tyreek Hill has the second-highest expected fantasy points at 25.94 (behind only Puka Nacua), although his usage could be better (currently 43rd in utilization rank).
• Tua Tagovailoa has started the season maintaining his strong career efficiency rates in terms of completion percentage (65%) and TD rate (5.3%) but is throwing more than ever at 37 attempts per game.
• The Dolphins have a team total of 27.25, the fourth-highest on the slate, but thanks to a strong pass rate, they have the second-highest TD projection at 3.16.

Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) reacts after his touchdown against the New England Patriots in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): The Median score is 55.58 for $23,500 in salary.
• Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): The Median score is 47.95 for $18,900 in salary.
• Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): The Median score is 43.79 for $17,400 in salary.

The first combo provides approximately 55.58 / $23,500 = 2.36 points per unit of salary. Similarly, the second combo offers 2.54, while the third combo checks in at 2.52. The second and third options are considerably more valuable from a points-per-dollar standpoint and will likely come in at lower ownership.

Finish percentiles

• Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): 13.84% Top Finish and 43.00% Top-5 Finish.
• Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): 3.44% Top Finish and 20.48% Top-5 Finish.
• Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): 0.60% Top Finish and 10.52% Top-5 Finish.

High salary, high reward

This combo is the most expensive at $23,500, but it also offers the top median score on the squad. With a 13.84% chance for a Top Finish and a 43.00% for a Top-5 Finish, this combination provides the highest potential reward, making it an excellent option for those willing to allocate a higher budget for a shot at high finishes.

Moderate salary, moderate reward

At $18,900, this combo is more affordable while still offering a decent median score. The chances for Top Finishes (3.44%) and Top-5 Finishes (20.48%) are lower compared to the first combo, making it a balanced option for those looking for a middle ground between cost and potential reward. The key here is you are fading one of Tyreek or Waddle and looking for a more spread-out offense. 

Low salary, lowest reward

The most budget-friendly option, this combo has the lowest median projection of the trio. The likelihood of achieving Top Finishes (0.60%) and Top-5 Finishes (10.52%) is also the lowest among the three combinations and doesn’t use Hill, making it the riskiest option in terms of performance but at the most affordable cost.

The Dolphins should come in at around half the ownership of a Vikings stack with similar upside, making them one of the best contrarian stacks of the week.

Value option: Chicago Bears

Facts:

• The Bears are the most significant underdogs on the week with a spread of over 12 points, letting us project the Bears to be in a passing game script for most of the game.
• Justin Fields has stayed consistently strong regarding success rate and deep pass efficiency, but his designed rushes have been cut in half (just five to start the season).
• DJ Moore and Fields have come out with words against the coaching staff this week, which could potentially lead to a change in gameplan after a winless start to the season.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Salary and projections:

• Combo 1 (Fields/Moore/Mooney): The Median score is 44.9 for $17,200, good for 2.61 points per salary unit.
• Combo 2 (Justin Fields/Moore/Kmet): The Median score is 44.84 for $17,100, averaging 2.62 points per salary unit.
• Combo 3 (Fields/Mooney/Kmet): The Median score is 39.46 for $15,800, resulting in the worst average of 2.50 points per salary unit.

Sep 17, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) looks to pass during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

It’s evident that Combo 2 slightly edges out the others in terms of efficiency, offering the most points per salary unit. While the differences are minimal, these kinds of edges can be valuable when trying to fit the more expensive and consistent options to round out such a risky stack.

Finish percentiles

• Combo 1 (Fields/Moore/Mooney): 1.64% Top Finish and 12.80% Top-5 Finish.
• Combo 2 (Fields/Moore/Kmet): 1.76% Top Finish and 11.88% Top-5 Finish.
• Combo 3 (Fields/Mooney/Kmet): 0.12% Top Finish and 3.04% Top-5 Finish.

Expensive and medium cost options: Combos 1 and 2 are comparable in salary and projections, offering moderate Median scores and Top Finish possibilities. They both also exhibit similar efficiency, making them reasonable choices for those seeking a balance between investment and potential reward.

Balanced risk and reward: Combo 3, while being the most budget-friendly option, presents the lowest Median score and a significantly lower chance for high finishes. This combo represents a more conservative approach, suitable for those willing to manage risk while working with a smaller budget.

The Bears may come out as flat as Weeks 1 and 2, but with a big trailing game script on deck against a Chiefs defense allowing opponents to move the ball, it’s worth taking a shot.