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Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Los Angeles Rams

Facts:

  • The Rams are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league with a DBOE (Dropback over expectation) of +6%, as well as weeks of +12%, +14%, and +12% in their sample.
  • In his return from injury, Cooper Kupp was in on 98% of routes and had a 37% target share, both terrific marks, but more important was Puka Nacua maintaining an elite role with 100% route participation and 31% target share.
  • Although the Rams are not up against a “difficult” opponent, the Cardinals have shown they will speed up in a trailing gamescript. Last week against the Bengals, they had a .83 PPMOE (Plays per minute over expectation), so if the Rams get a lead, we should expect an excellent environment for fantasy.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Stafford/Kupp/Nacua): This combination is the most expensive at $23,100 and has the highest Median score of 58.79.
  • Combo 2 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee): Moderately priced at $19,100 with a Median score of 47.49.
  • Combo 3 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee): Least expensive at $18,100, with a Median score close to Combo 2 at 46.65.

According to the projections, Combo 3 provides the best efficiency, but Combo 1 isn't far behind. The Rams offer robust options through multiple price points, though the best combo is clearly Kupp and Nacua if you have the salary.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Stafford/Kupp/Nacua): Leads with a 17.56% Top Finish and a robust 78.44% 2x%.
  • Combo 2 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee): 2.00% Top Finish with a solid 76.36% 2x%.
  • Combo 3 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee): Slightly better Top Finish than Combo 2 at 2.28% and a high 78.36% 2x%.
Cooper Kupp

Oct 8, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) runs for a first down before he is stopped by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Combo 1: Premium Choice with High Efficiency

This combination offers both top-tier upside and efficiency. With the highest Median score and top finish potential, this is a go-to for those willing to invest in premium choices with consistent scoring.

Combo 2: Mid-Tier with Balanced Potential

Though it's moderately priced, its efficiency isn't as striking. The upside is limited, but it's a reasonable choice for a balanced approach.

Combo 3: Value Pick with Optimal Efficiency

It’s the least expensive, yet it offers the best efficiency. It presents excellent value with a similar Median score to Combo 2 at a lesser cost. Its 2x% is also impressive, making it a solid contrarian or budget pick.

The Rams team combinations cater to different budget ranges and strategies. Combo 1 offers top-tier potential, Combo 2 is the middle-of-the-road option, while Combo 3 offers great value for its price. Dwain and I agree that Stafford has been in a position to erupt for a while now, and with his team now near full health, he should be made a priority.

Contrarian option: Philadelphia Eagles

Facts:

  • In 2022, Jalen Hurts was an absolute cheat code, averaging 50 yards per game rushing with .87 rushing TDs per game. In 2023, those averages are 42 yards per game and .80 TDs per game, yet he isn’t getting near the same level of buzz and ends up undervalued.
  • While the Eagles have had one game with a significantly negative DBOE (Dropback over expectation), they have otherwise skewed positively in competitive game scripts. That tells us that competitive games will lead to big fantasy performances for them. While the Jets aren’t great, they have looked competent the last two weeks and are “only” single-digit underdogs this week.
  • Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert account for 92% of the air yards and 73% of the targets for PHI, making them one of the most condensed target trees in the league.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 2

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith): Priciest at $23,000 with a Median score of 52.12.
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert): Moderately priced at $20,800 with a Median score of 48.59.
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert): Least expensive at $20,000, with a Median score of 42.37.

The Rams stacks above certainly offer better value, but the floors are lower than the Eagles’. None of the above Eagles stacks check in under $20k, which can cause some issues in lineup construction, but with Hurts’ rushing TD upside and a condensed target tree, you won’t bottom out with this team.

Eagles

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) walk to the locker room at halftime at Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Hurts/Brown/Smith): Decent Top Finish at 6.48% and a robust 65.12% 2x%.
  • Combo 2 (Hurts/Brown/Goedert): Lower Top Finish at 3.20% but a slightly higher 2x% at 67.56%.
  • Combo 3 (Hurts/Smith/Goedert): Lowest potential with a Top Finish of 0.32% and 2x% of 57.04%.

Combo 1: High Potential and Cost

The combination offers both substantial upside and a consistent floor. With a relatively high Top Finish potential and a 65.12% 2x%, this combo is ideal for those looking for balanced performance with some upside.

Combo 2: Balanced Potential with Optimal Efficiency

Even though it's cheaper than Combo 1, its efficiency is superior. It offers a balanced potential and is the best pick for those looking to maximize points per dollar.

Combo 3: Value Pick with Limited Upside

It is the least expensive combination, yet its efficiency isn't as impressive as Combo 2. It has limited upside but might be an option for a contrarian or budget approach.

Value option: Houston Texans

Facts:

  • The Texans are small favorites over the Saints, which projects a competitive game environment. The Texans average 66.8 plays per game (.02 PPMOE on the season), while the Saints average 65.8 plays per game (-.02 PPMOE) and should create a good game script for the passing game overall.
  • CJ Stroud has had a strong start to the year, with a 62% competition rate and a respectable 12.8 yards per completion. He’s also yet to throw an interception, with seven touchdowns and no picks on the year.
  • Dameon Pierce has slowly had his workload increased week to week, and although his target percentage dropped in Week 5, he is now averaging 66% of the rushing attempts with a healthy 7% target share and 66% of the rushing attempts inside the five-yard line.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Stroud/Collins/Woods): Most expensive at $15,400 with a Median score of 48.21.
  • Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): Close in price at $15,200 with a Median score of 45.50.
  • Combo 3 (Stroud/Woods/Schultz): Cheapest at $13,400, with a Median score of 38.42.

Nearly every one of these combinations is projected for around 3x value, with Combo 3 being 2.87 points per dollar, which is still one of the best marks on the slate.

Schultz

Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (86) reacts with offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (78) and quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) after catching a touchdown pass against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Stroud/Collins/Woods): Moderate top finish at 2.52% and a strong 91.72% 2x%.
  • Combo 2 (Stroud/Collins/Schultz): Lower Top Finish at 1.40% with a slightly lower 2x% at 89.60%.
  • Combo 3 (Stroud/Woods/Schultz): Minimal potential with a Top Finish of 0.04% and 2x% of 87.44%.

Combo 1: Efficient with Balanced Performance

This combination offers the best efficiency and a balanced risk-reward ratio. With a decent Top Finish potential and a strong 2x% at 91.72%, this combo is excellent for those looking for consistency with some upside.

Combo 2: Moderate Potential with Good Efficiency

While its efficiency is slightly below Combo 1, it's a close competitor. It has a moderate potential and would suit those looking for a solid performance without taking extreme risks.

Combo 3: Budget Pick with Limited Upside

It’s the most affordable combination but the least efficient of the three. Still, in regards to the entire slate, this combination is top 5 in overall value and 2x, 3x, and 4x percentages.

With Tank Dell out, this target tree should condense. Typically, for teams missing a WR, it would be a replacement that is hard to trust, but Robert Woods is a quality veteran wideout stepping into the role. Likewise, he’s very cheap!

This is the epitome of a value stack; the Texans are willing to be pass-heavy, and Stroud has shown plenty of upside. Utilize this stack in GPPs to fit the big hitters in the rest of your lineup.