Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Los Angeles Chargers

Facts:

  • In Week 6, Joshua Palmer and Keenan Allen both had strong utilization with 100% and 98% of the snaps, respectively, and a combined 85% of the team’s air yards on 33% of the total targets.
  • Justin Herbert is technically having the best season of his young career, with slightly lowered volume but improvements in Success Rate (9.9%), QBR (37.8; career-high), and Average Net Yards per Attempt (6.96; career-high).
  • While the Chiefs have the higher team total, they don’t have nearly as consolidated a target tree, with Travis Kelce owning the best target share at just 26%. Ten other receivers have had some targets come their way, making them a more complicated side to stack in GPPs.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Team 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Herbert/Allen/Palmer): This combination is the most expensive at $21,400 and has the highest Median score of 51.3.
  • Combo 2 (Herbert/Allen/Everett): Moderately priced at $20,400 with a Median score of 47.47.
  • Combo 3 (Herbert/Palmer/Everett): Least-expensive at $16,600, with a Median score of 37.5.

According to the projections, Combo 3 provides the best efficiency in terms of cost, but Combo 1 has the highest performance potential. The Chargers offer robust options through multiple price points, though the best duo is Allen and Palmer if you can afford the salary.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Herbert/Allen/Palmer): Leads with an 8.76% Top Finish and a robust 72.64% 2x%.
  • Combo 2 (Herbert/Allen/Everett): 3.48% Top Finish with a solid 67.72% 2x%.
  • Combo 3 (Herbert/Palmer/Everett): Worse Top Finish percentage than Combo 2 at 0.04% but a high 64.76% 2x%.
Herbert Allen

Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) and wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) celebrate after a play during the second quarter a wild card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Combo 1: Premium Choice with Strong Projections

This combination offers both top-tier upside and efficiency. With the highest Median score and top finish potential, this is a go-to for those willing to invest in premium choices with consistent scoring.

Combo 2: Mid-Tier with Balanced Potential

Though it's moderately priced, its efficiency isn't as striking. The upside is limited, but it's a reasonable choice for a balanced approach.

Combo 3: Value Pick with Decent Efficiency

It’s the least expensive, and its Median score lags behind the other combos. However, its 2x% is relatively high, making it a solid contrarian or budget pick.

The Chargers have one of the best game environments on the slate and are priced in a spot that makes them accessible. Likewise, the way their target tree is built out allows for stacking upside, whereas the Chiefs' target tree is much more spread out. Add it all up, and the Chargers will be a high-upside stack with lots of ownership.

Contrarian option: Buffalo Bills

Facts:

  • While Stefon Diggs has by far the highest expected fantasy points on The Bills, he is second on the team in end zone target share behind Gabe Davis. Davis has a 32% market share of the end zone looks (as well as an 89.78% rate of third and fourth down snaps), while Diggs sits at 30.56%. That helps Davis maintain a strong median output.
  • The Bills are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, with a seasonal DBOE (Dropback Over Expectation) of 6% and only one week with a negative rate.
  • The Bills are one of the biggest favorites on the slate at nine points. Still, we have seen Buffalo lay on the points even after securing a lead (against Miami and Las Vegas), so we can have confidence they won’t let up quickly, even if the Patriots are a wet shoe in the snow.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Team 2

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Allen/Diggs/Davis): This combination is the most expensive at $23,000, showcasing a Median score of 51.76.
  • Combo 2 (Allen/Diggs/Kinkaid): Priced at $20,200 with a Median score of 48.1.
  • Combo 3 (Allen/Davis/Kinkaid): The least expensive option at $17,200, but it offers a Median score of 38.42.

Bills stacks and Chargers stacks are basically in lockstep when it comes to projection and finishing potential. All three combos are within one point of each other in terms of median projections, and they have similar top-finish rates as well. The most significant difference is Bills' stacks should come in at half the ownership of Chargers’ stacks, which provides fantastic relative value in GPPs.

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Allen/Diggs/Davis): It stands out with a 7.96% Top Finish, an impressive 40.60% Top-5 Finish, and a 57.48% Top-10 Finish.
  • Combo 2 (Allen/Diggs/Kinkaid): Checks in with a 3.36% Top Finish, 24.28% Top-5 Finish, and a respectable 44.32% Top-10 Finish.
  • Combo 3 (Allen/Davis/Kinkaid): While the most affordable, it has a 0.24% Top Finish, 3.76% Top-5 Finish, and 12.36% Top-10 Finish.
Bills

Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) celebrates with Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) after catching a touchdown pass against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Combo 1: High Potential and Cost

With the highest Median score and the best finishing percentiles across the board, this combo is the premium choice for those aiming for peak performance with plenty of upside.

Combo 2: Balanced Potential with Optimal Efficiency

Reasonably priced with a good balance of Median and top-finish projections, this combination offers a blend of value and performance while lacking some top-end power.

Combo 3: Value Pick with Limited Upside

While it's the most budget-friendly, its finishing percentiles are significantly lower. It's a viable choice for those with budget constraints, but it might not be ideal for those seeking higher returns.

Value option: Los Angeles Rams

Facts:

  • The Rams are just three-point favorites over the Steelers with a mediocre game total. Still, considering they have had a pass-heavy DBOE in three of six weeks and been neutral or fast-paced in all but one, we should expect them to keep their foot on the gas, no matter the game script.
  • Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are top-10 receivers in terms of utilization on the year and have the fourth and sixth-best expected fantasy points per game at 18.39 and 17.73, respectively.
  • At 37.8 attempts per game, Matthew Stafford is throwing with more volume than any of his last 10 years, while his TD rate is an uncharacteristically low 2.6%, which should lead to some positive regression soon.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Team 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Stafford/Kupp/Nacua): This combination is the most expensive at $23,600 and has the highest Median score of 63.88.
  • Combo 2 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee): Moderately priced at $19,700 with a Median score of 52.1, which is still very strong.
  • Combo 3 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee): Least expensive at $17,800, with a Median score of 48.22.

Each stack for the Rams above has a 3x% (Chance of hitting 3x their salary in median points) of at least 27%, with Combo 1 and Combo 3 hitting 31%. But this stack isn’t just about value, as the medians outpace many of the best stacks on the slate in raw points.

Rams

Oct 7, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee (89) celebrates with wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) after catching a touchdown pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Stafford/Kupp/Nacua):  Leads with an impressive 39.20% Top Finish and a robust 84.12% 2x%. Additionally, it has a significant 60.76% chance of exceeding the 60+% category and boasts the highest Ceiling at 79.85.
  • Combo 2 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee): 9.68% Top Finish with a solid 81.96% 2x%. It also has a 27.96% probability of surpassing the 60+% mark and has a Ceiling of 65.125.
  • Combo 3 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee): Has a 4.56% Top Finish — slightly less than half of Combo 2 — but with a high 84.32% 2x%. It's just a little behind Combo 2 in the 60+% category at 17.12% and offers a Ceiling of 60.275.

Combo 1: Premium Choice with Superior Efficiency

This combination shines both in terms of upside and efficiency. With the highest Median score, Top Finish potential, and ceiling, it is the primary choice for those ready to invest in top-tier combinations with optimal output.

Combo 2: Balanced Potential

While moderately priced, its efficiency is commendable, especially given the robust 2x% and Ceiling. It's a worthy option for those looking for a balanced approach, ensuring consistent performance.

Combo 3: Optimal Efficiency on a Budget

Despite being the least expensive, it competes closely with Combo 2, especially in the 2x% and 60+% categories. It provides substantial value, making it an ideal choice for budgetary constraints without compromising too much on performance.

While the Rams are not what you would typically consider a “value” because of their price, it’s easy to argue they aren’t expensive enough. Stafford is below $7,000 and projects as well as those in the upper price tier on DraftKings. Kupp and Nacua earn 28%+ targets in an offense with a top-10 pass rate in the league. No matter how you cut it, the Rams offer immense upside and terrific value.