Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!

In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.

Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option, and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!

All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.

Popular option: Baltimore Ravens

Facts:

  • In Week 7, Lamar Jackson torched the Lions for 357 yards passing on just 27 attempts, with a yards per attempt of 13.2 (yearly double his season average) while adding nine rushing attempts for 36 yards and a TD.
  • While the Ravens are not considered a fast-paced team (they’re “Neutral” in plays per minute over expectation), they haven’t played a single slow-paced game this season, which is massive for their upside potential as a stack.
  • Zay Flowers doesn’t profile as the typical WR1, but his utilization has been surprisingly strong this year as he ranks 13th in the league, sandwiched between Davante Adams and A.J. Brown.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 1

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Jackson/Flowers/Andrews): The most expensive option at $20,100, it showcases a Median score of 48.69.
  • Combo 2 (Jackson/Flowers/Beckham Jr.): Priced at $17,500, it offers a Median score of 42.10.
  • Combo 3 (Jackson/Beckham Jr./Andrews): The least expensive of the trio at $18,300, it has a slightly lower Median score than Combo 2 at 40.76.

Given the projections, Combo 1 leads in terms of raw performance, while Combo 3 presents itself as a cost-efficient option without compromising too much on the Median score.

Ravens

Oct 22, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Jackson/Flowers/Andrews): It leads the pack with a 4.84% Top Finish, a promising 25.64% Top-5 Finish, a 43.88% Top-10 Finish, and an impressive 73.32% chance to exceed the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 2 (Jackson/Flowers/Beckham Jr.): Comes in with a 0.80% Top Finish, 8.64% Top-5 Finish, 19.40% Top-10 Finish, and a 71.92% chance to exceed the 60% percentile.
  • Combo 3 (Jackson/Beckham Jr./Andrews): The budget option, but with a 0.44% Top Finish, 6.92% Top-5 Finish, 16.96% Top-10 Finish, and a 62.40% chance to surpass the 60% percentile.

Combo 1: High Performance at a Premium

This combination leads in nearly all metrics, making it the go-to for those aiming for top-tier results and willing to spend a bit more.

Combo 2: Value Play with Good Potential

With a good balance between cost and performance, this combo offers decent returns without breaking the bank.

Combo 3: Budget-Friendly Option

While it's the most affordable, its performance metrics lag slightly behind Combo 2. It's a viable choice for those who have budget constraints and are looking for reasonable potential.

The heart and soul of the Ravens stacks is based on Lamar Jackson and his rushing/passing combo. Who you pair with him is less important, but you can see from the model results that dropping to Odell Beckham Jr. is a pretty risky proposition. That said, the Ravens will be a popular option on Sunday, so aiming to be a bit different with the WR3 is fine in larger GPPs.

Contrarian option: Miami Dolphins

Facts:

  • There’s no doubt that Tyreek Hill is the WR1 on the Dolphins, evidenced by his league-leading 20.67 expected PPR points per game, but Jaylen Waddle is due for a big game. He’s averaged 6.83 targets per game, .83 endzone targets per game, and an aDOT of 9.29, all strong marks on the league’s best offense.
  • While the Dolphins have been lighting the league on fire, you could argue that they have been doing it while keeping some in the tank. They’ve not had a game with a fast-paced, pass-heavy script all year (just one pass-heavy game by DBOE), allowing them to keep a more balanced playbook and keep their WRs tied down a bit.
  • Back in Week 2 against the Patriots, Hill had just five catchable targets on nine total targets, while Waddle had five on six. We should expect Waddle to be the more “accessible” WR once again.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 2

Combo 1 (Tua/Hill/Waddle):

  • Salary: $24,700
  • Median: 54.99

Finishing Percentiles:

  • Top Finish: 16.44%
  • Top-5 Finish: 46.72%
  • Top-10 Finish: 63.60%

Upside: The ceiling is quite high at 68.74, offering the best odds for a top finish while providing significant upside in the upper percentiles. Given its median projection, this combo is one of the strongest contenders for top performances.

Combo 2 (Tua/Hill/Smythe):

  • Salary: $20,000
  • Median: 45.31

Finishing Percentiles:

  • Top Finish: 3.12%
  • Top 5 Finish: 17.28%
  • Top 10 Finish: 33.20%

Upside: With a ceiling of 56.64, this combination offers some upside but significantly less than Combo 1. The drop in median and finishing percentiles while saving $4,700 suggests that while it might be budget-friendly, it compromises the likelihood of top-end results.

Combo 3 (Tua/Waddle/Smythe):

  • Salary: $18,000
  • Median: 36.95

Finishing Percentiles:

  • Top Finish: 0.04%
  • Top 5 Finish: 1.44%
  • Top 10 Finish: 7.04%

Upside: Boasting a ceiling of 46.19, the upside of this combo is the least appealing among the three. The low median projection and diminished finishing percentiles make this combination the riskiest play. It's the most economical choice but provides considerably lower potential returns.

Dolphins

Oct 22, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs with the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Summary:

Combo 1: Offers the most potential upside and strongest finishing percentiles. It's the premium choice, but the potential returns justify the investment.

Combo 2: A balanced option that provides some savings without entirely sacrificing the upside. While not as potent as Combo 1, it's a viable choice for those looking to allocate funds elsewhere.

Combo 3: The clear underdog among the three. It's the most budget-friendly, but the drop in potential upside and finishing percentiles suggests it might not be the best investment, even at its lower price point.

The Dolphins have a lot of upside across all their combos, specifically because of how strong Hill and Waddle can be in a vacuum. While Hill provides more explosive play upside, Waddle has a lot of touchdown equity based on his red zone usage. Because of this dichotomy, you can mix and match either based on your salary restraints.

Value option: Carolina Panthers

Facts:

  • Bryce Young has a pass yards per completion of just 5.3, tied for the worst mark in the league with (surprisingly) Joe Burrow.
  • While his utilization hasn’t been terrific, Adam Thielen has been an absolute target magnet this year, with 13 targets in each of the last two games and a 14-target game in Week 3.
  • The Panthers are scoring 18.67 points per game — a bottom-five mark in the league — while having almost an entirely league-average DBOE at 1% and a slow-to-neutral pace. However, with a team total of 23.5 this week, they are one of the more interesting teams in DFS due to their low price tags.

Stack info (DraftKings)

Stack 3

Salary and projections:

  • Combo 1 (Young/Thielen/Mingo): Priced at $15,100, it projects a Median score of 43.18.
  • Combo 2 (Young/Thielen/Hurst): A bit more economical at $14,600 and offers a Median score of 40.99.
  • Combo 3 (Young/Mingo/Hurst): The most budget-friendly at $11,400, but losing Thielen results in a Median score of 27.77.

Upon a quick glance, Combo 1 seems to be the most robust in terms of raw performance. Combo 3 is the one that stands out without Thielen, who is integral to the upside of this stack. However, it's essential to dissect the finishes to get the complete picture.

Oct 1, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) reacts in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Finish percentiles

  • Combo 1 (Young/Thielen/Mingo):  1.32% chance for a Top Finish, a strong 11.16% for a Top-5 Finish, a solid 25.64% for a Top-10 Finish, and a remarkable 86.68% likelihood to surpass the 2x points per salary.
  • Combo 2 (Young/Thielen/Hurst): A slightly lower 0.64% Top Finish, a decent 7.08% Top-5 Finish, a 17.68% Top-10 Finish, and an excellent 86.08% chance to exceed the 2x points per salary.
  • Combo 3 (Young/Mingo/Hurst): With 0.00% for Top Finish, 0.08% for Top 5, 0.20% for Top 10, and a 70.88% probability to clear the 60% percentile, this combination, while budget-friendly, offers significantly less potential.

Combo 1: Balanced and Powerful

Offering the highest projections and impressive finishing percentiles across the board, this combination provides good value for its price.

Combo 2: A Close Second with Savings

While it lags slightly behind Combo 1, this option saves $500 and still offers a decent potential for returns, making it an appealing choice for those looking to save a bit without compromising too much on results.

Combo 3: The Economical Choice

It is undoubtedly the most affordable option, but its significantly lower projections and finishing percentiles make it the riskiest play. This is the combo to go for if budget constraints are the primary concern but with a clear understanding of its lower ceiling.

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