Peter Overzet identifies three winning plays for NFL DFS Week 17 action.

We've reached the end of the road. Week 17 marks the last "real" Main Slate of the season. 

This will be my final GPP-specific DFS column of the year, so let's make the most of it and ship a tournament on our way out the 2024 door. 

As always, these salaries/plays are specific to DraftKings salary cap contests, but the macro matchups and correlation principles can apply regardless of where you are playing DFS. 

If you'd like my favorite plays and sleepers that are specific for Underdog draft contests, I'll be posting a strategy video on the Deposit Kingdom channel on Friday afternoon. 

Alright, let's get to it …
 

🏆 One Buc In Every Lineup

I'm kind of surprised the Bucs don't have a bigger team total (22) in this pristine home spot vs. the Panthers. FWIW, Freedman likes over 47.5 in this game and has it projected for 51.1, so I'm not alone with that sentiment. 

Carolina, which is just plucky enough to keep games competitive, is the matchup you dream of your players getting with fantasy championships on the line.

As Ian laid out here, the Panthers rank dead last in getting pressure on the QB and are near the bottom of the league in both EPA allowed per dropback (30th) and per rush (31st). Translation: you can move the ball however you want against this sieve.

The Buccaneers are plenty motivated, too—they'll need to win out and the Falcons will need to drop a game for the Bucs to make the playoffs.

In smaller-field DFS contests, I have zero issue throwing the entire Bucs kitchen sink into your lineup, but let's quickly discuss each play in a vacuum.

Re: Irving: He's been a revelation this year (3rd in YPC, 1st in yards after contact, 4th in yards per route run, etc. etc.). The only issue has been playing time. Liam Coen (rightfully) caught some flak after underutilizing him in the team's embarrassing loss to the Cowboys last Monday night and I envision him correcting that mistake vs. the Panthers. In Week 13, Irving tallied 185 yards and a TD vs. this same turnstile defense.

If you are worried about timeshare shenanigans with Rachaad White, then feel free to play this spot through the passing game. Baker has not finished outside of the Top 10 at the position in games where Evans has been healthy. While 182 yards is a big number, I would not be surprised to see these two go out there and lock up another 1K receiving-yard season for Big Mike.

The beauty of the Bucs is that there are some really nice salary-saving options as well. As Dwain outlined in the Utilization Report, McMillan has locked up the No. 2 role in the offense. He's averaging 15.4 points per game and an 18% target share the past month. He can comfortably be tacked onto Baker stacks.

Same goes for Durham, who will likely get another start at TE with Cade Otton still ailing. Durham had a respectable 7 targets and an 88% route rate in Week 16 and it will not shock you to know that the Panthers are also very poor against TEs. 

And if you don't play any of the aforementioned skill players, I'd most certainly give a long look at playing the defense ($3400). The points gotta come from somewhere.

🏆 Aaron Jones Revenge Game/GPP Leverage

I'm writing this on a Thursday, but I have a hunch that this Packers/Vikings game is going to be the most popular DFS game of the slate. 

Sam Darnold ($6400) and Justin Jefferson ($8300) are coming off monster games and there are plenty of NFC playoff seeding implications on the line between these two teams. 

While the field gravitates to Darnold stacks, I like the idea of making the pivot to Jones. It never feels comfortable to lock him in a lineup—he's a volatile, boom/bust player who is just as likely to fumble the ball a few times and get soft benched as he is to break the slate. 

But that's the exact kind of variance we should be looking to embrace in tournaments.

Jones is coming off back-to-back games with 18 rush attempts and averaged 3.5 targets per game over that span. In Week 14, he had 139 yards vs. the Packers.

Considering how tight this spread is (Packers are 1-point road favorites), Jones should stay involved throughout. 

Swing for the fences and play Jones as a contrarian pivot this Sunday. The post-TD "Bank Vault" celebration is gonna hit like late-night cookies and eggnog. 

🏆 The 'Slop It Up Fest' Of The Week (Saints/Raiders)

I do a show called "Off & On The Clock" every Friday with the Badge Bros. where we break down the slate on Underdog.

Every week, we identify one game as the "Slop It Up Fest" of the week. This is the game that is so gross on paper that it could actually be great for fantasy.

This week's candidate is so obvious that I'm not even consulting with my fellow Badge Bros. before circling it on the schedule.

Neither the Saints nor Raiders have a team total over 20, but this game has the makings of a sneaky shootout.

Things are fairly straightforward on the Raiders side of the ball. With Aidan O’Connell back at the helm, both Bowers and Meyers are cooking. Meyers has 56 targets in the last six games and Bowers is coming off a 13-target game in Week 15. 

The Saints secondary is decimated, so both should be able to feast in this spot. 

As for the Saints, this is where we really can slop it up. Alvin Kamara is almost for sure going to be shut down for the year and Miller will get a mulligan after the team's brutal showing in Green Bay. As long as this game remains close, he should see 15+ touches.

I wouldn't touch the QBs in this game, but I like the idea of mixing and matching a few of these guys as mini-correlations in your lineups. 

Good luck this week. Next time you see me I will have morphed into a cash-game grinder for Week 18.