Peter Overzet recommends his Week 10 NFL DFS picks, highlighted by the 49ers and Vikings.

Last week's "Game Of The Week" popped off in a big way and produced four tournament-winning scores: Joe Burrow (30.14), Mike Gesicki (30 points), Chase Brown (29.7 points), and Jakobi Meyers (21.5 points). 

For Week 10, our DFS awards committee would like to spotlight two offenses to onslaught in GPPs (tournaments).

If you aren't hip to the DFS lexicon, "onslaught" refers to loading up with 4+ players from a single team and doesn't require a "bring back" from their opponent.

There are certain teams—like the Bengals last week—that need to be pushed by their opponent to get into a shootout. For those situations, I like utilizing a bring back so the story you are telling with a lineup is logical.

But sometimes a "bring back" is not necessary and the sharper play is just to load up on a single offense. This makes intuitive sense, too. The idea behind a stack or game stack is to reap the benefits of correlation and eliminate the number of things we need to get right.

When you introduce a "bring back," you now need to get two things right: 1) the primary stack to go off and 2) the additional piece on the opposing team to also go off. But when we onslaught a single team, our thesis relies on only getting one thing right—this one team smashes.

That's exactly how I want to approach the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings this week. Both teams have awesome team totals—28.25 and 25, respectively—as well as opponents who have been ravaged by injuries and are unlikely to put up much of a fight.

Alright, let's get to the good stuff. How exactly to onslaught these two offenses…

🏆 HOW TO ONSLAUGHT THE 49ERS (QB + 2 STARS + VALUE)

 

The Niners are in an incredible spot this weekend as they head out of the bye. They have the highest team total on the main slate, are likely to get Christian McCaffrey back, and have a very friendly matchup with a weak Bucs defense. 

Here are my "rules" for a Niners onslaught:

Min 1: QB Brock Purdy ($6500)

Every onslaught features the QB, so it's no surprise that we are starting with Purdy here. He will likely be very popular, but rightfully so. He projects extremely well and is priced way too cheap. 

With Purdy, you are getting a great floor/ceiling combination. He has averaged the 5th-most passing yards per game (263) and now gets a Bucs defense allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game through the air. This has resulted in the 2nd-highest fantasy boost (4 points per game) for opposing QBs, which was on display on MNF when they allowed Patrick Mahomes to finally turn in a good fantasy game.

While Purdy will be chalky, most rosters will elect to skinny or double stack him, which is why we are going to get unique by loading up with more 49ers pieces …

Min 2: RB Christian McCaffrey ($8000), WR Deebo Samuel ($6900) OR TE George Kittle ($5800)

In a perfect world—one where a salary cap doesn't exist—we would stack Purdy with all three of these options, but the pricing makes it difficult. Instead, we will pick two of these three options to pair with Purdy.

It doesn't feel comfortable, but tossing CMC into this stack will be very unique. No one is going to want to touch him coming off this long injury layoff, but he is still underpriced if he returns to even 80-90% of his typical role. We've seen other star backs like Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones immediately return to big workloads after extended absences, so I don't want to overthink this.

As for the pass catchers, it's impossible to not love both Deebo and Kittle here. Tampa Bay has given up the 3rd-most points to pass catchers (35.4). Deebo has been a monster in games without Brandon Aiyuk, averaging 21.9 points per game with 10 targets and Kittle has been phenomenal all season long. His 9.6 Utilization Score puts him firmly at No. 1 for 2024's best TE:

 

 

Min 1: 49ers DEF ($3300)  or WR Ricky Pearsall ($4400)

To complete this onslaught, we'll need one value option. Handbuilders are normally loath to toss in a defense with their stack, but you'll see this correlation pop up in DFS simulations ("sims") a decent bit of the time. This feels like a spot where the Niners could easily sprinkle in a D/ST score.

Ricky Pearsall would be the other way to go for a cheap Niners option. He's coming off back-to-back games with 4 or more targets, and it's not unusual for a rookie to see a post-bye bump.

🏆 HOW TO ONSLAUGHT THE VIKINGS (QB + JJEFF + AJ + 1 VALUE)

Like the Niners, the Vikings are in a terrific spot this weekend vs. a reeling Jaguars squad that could be without Trevor Lawrence. Ian's matchup charts like them for an explosive day through the air and it's an equally good spot on the ground. Here's how to play it …

Min 1: QB Sam Darnold ($6200)

Darnold is neck-and-neck with Purdy as the best QB play on the slate. The Jags defense is a turnstile. They give up the biggest fantasy boost (+6.4 points per game) to opposing QBs of any defense in the league:

Darnold has taken advantage of soft matchups, too, averaging 265 yards and 2.5 passing TDs the past two weeks vs. the Rams and the Colts. The floor/ceiling combo in this spot is excellent.

Min 1: WR Justin Jefferson ($8800)

I suppose you could galaxy brain a Darnold stack without the best WR in football, but I don't want to be in that line of business. Most of the Darnold slate-breaking upside scenarios prominently feature Jefferson, so we are not going to overthink the WR with the highest projection on the slate.

The Jags' deficiencies against opposing QBs spill over to defending pass catchers, where they give up the second largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.2). 

TLDR: play the man with a diamond tooth.

Min 1: RB Aaron Jones ($6700)

Jones is massively mispriced at this tag and should be a fixture of any Darnold stack or Vikings onslaught. Dwain laid out the case in his rankings piece this week and it's fairly straightforward.

His underlying usage has been elite since Jones returned from injury. Check out these data points:

  • Snaps: 81% (elite)
  • Attempts: 82% (elite)
  • Attempts inside the 5-yard line: 100% (elite)
  • Routes: 64% (great)
  • Targets: 11% (good)
  • Two-minute offense snaps: 100% (elite)

And now he gets to face a Jags defense that is just as bad against the run as it is against the pass, giving up the fourth-biggest fantasy boost to RBs at 4.4 points per contest.

I know sometimes it feels uncomfortable to use an RB in a QB stack, but Jones' price coupled with his pass-catching role make him a near-mandatory inclusion.

Min 1: WR Jordan Addison ($5300), TE T.J. Hockenson ($4700) OR Vikings DEF ($3700)

To round out our Vikings onslaught, we have three good options for a value addition.

The defensive play is very similar to the one with the Niners. Whether it's a banged-up Lawrence or Mac Jones, turnovers will be in play.

My preferred way to play it, though, would be to tack on one of Addison or Hockenson to the Darnold stack. 

We've already established that the Jags are awful against opposing WRs and Addison's large average depth of target—aka aDOT (15.7)—means that he could get loose for some big plays.

I always like correlating my TE with the QB, so Hockenson is also on the menu here. He returned to action last week and had a solid role (60% route participation rate) right out of the gate. It would make sense for the team to expand that even more in his second game back. This will likely be the last time he's priced under $5K this season.

If you'd like my favorite plays and sleepers for Underdog contests, I'll be posting a strategy video on the Deposit Kingdom channel on Friday afternoon. 

Good luck this week.