It’s only been a few weeks, and I already miss building rosters.

To be clear, I mean the drafting part. I need a few (or seven) months to recharge and get back into the managing aspect of this game we play. Anyway, I went through a thought exercise about how the market will look next season. Honestly, I could draft right now. But let’s get through the playoffs first.

Single-week contests are all we’ve got left. Of course, there’s a strategic element to the format. Rostership rates, stacking, and projecting game flow all play a part in constructing a winning squad. However, “playing the best plays” can put you in contention. So, using our tools, I found some of the popular and off-the-board DFS options to consider for the Divisional Round.

You can unlock the full suite of DFS tools, betting picks, projections and more with a FantasyLife+ Tier 2 membership below.

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels, WAS ($7,000)

Our projections have the Commanders’ rookie QB (who’s playing like a seasoned vet) as the co-leader in potential points for the weekend. And since we can roster Jayden Daniels at a slight discount (Lamar Jackson: $7,800), the (likely) Offensive Rookie of the Year is the best point-per-dollar QB on the board.

Based on his rushing tendencies, the LSU product wasn’t fully over his rib injury until Week 11. Afterward, his 8.6 attempts per game (scrambles and designed runs) were the most of any passer. Accordingly, the Lions allowed the third-most yards on the ground to QBs throughout the regular season. Josh Allen (68 yards and two scores), Anthony Richardson (61 yards), and Kyler Murray (45 yards) highlighted the floor and ceiling advantage of the #KonamiCode. But Daniels will also need yardage through the air on top of his ground game to pay off his price tag. 

Here’s where OC Kliff Kingsbury’s play-action-laden play-calling will matter. Not only did the Lions allow a league-high 65.0% passing success rate on play-action attempts, but they also gave up the fifth-highest explosive play rate on similar concepts. With Daniels as one of the headliners in the game with the highest over/under, the only concern is who to pair with Washington’s franchise QB.

Patrick Mahomes, KC ($6,000)

It’s odd to consider a two-time MVP as an under-the-radar choice. But the stink of the regular season (QB13 in PPG) may hang on Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. However, the Chiefs look like they’re peaking at the right time.

Mahomes ranked 14th in dropbacks per game through the first six weeks of the season. Fewer attempts meant fewer appearances inside the top 12. But after adding DeAndre Hopkins and adjusting Xavier Worthy’s on-field deployment, their dropback over expectation rate picked up. So, we have fewer concerns for Mahomes as a passer. Plus, his ability and tendencies as a scrambler also go unnoticed until the playoffs.

  • Scramble Rate (since 2019): 7.9% (playoffs), 6.3% (regular season)
  • Total QB Runs per Game: 3.9, 2.9
  • Rushing FPPG: 4.7, 2.8

We just watched Houston limit the Chargers to 53 total yards on the ground and hold opposing RBs to the third-lowest PPR PPG throughout the year. Mahomes taking care of business by himself has been and should be on the table for Saturday. So, if you’re looking for passing and rushing upside at a lesser cost, Mahomes should be an easy click.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET ($7,700)

Let’s do a thought exercise using our projections. To be clear, I’m using what’s available on the site. So, if I’m wrong, it’s Dwain McFarland’s fault. But let me try something.

  • Rushing: 16.4 (attempts projection), 54.3% (team share)
  • Receiving: 3.6, 12.7%

Despite David Montgomery logging full practices, Gibbs should maintain the lead on the backfield touches. He handled the third-most touches per game (25.7) and averaged the most PPG of any RB (32.6) with Montgomery out. A 55-45 or 60-40 split isn’t unreasonable. Even better, this type of workload for rushers against the Commanders has been productive.

Fifteen RBs have secured over 50.0% of the carries against the Commanders. Only five didn’t find the end zone. Regardless, as a group, they averaged 17.3 PPR PPG against Washington. That’s just ahead of Josh Jacobs (i.e., the RB7). If we add in the target share, the mean jumps to 20.9 PPG. While it’s easy to envision HC Dan Campbell welcoming Montgomery back with a goal-line TD, Gibbs’s explosiveness as a runner and utility as a receiver justify his cost and popularity heading into Saturday night.

Austin Ekeler, WAS ($5,100)

The narrative for rostering Austin Ekeler is almost all you need. Detroit blows the doors off the Commanders. Daniels in a trailing-game script. The offense would be better off with a pass-catching RB. Luckily, Ekeler’s utilization data is already pointing us to the same answer.

Ekeler missed a month with a concussion but instantly returned to a hybrid role in the season finale. He was the only non-Daniels runner to generate a first down. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson Jr.’s efficiency and yardage totals have been on the decline since Week 12. On top of his dropoff, in a two-game sample, defenses have some idea what to expect if Robinson is in the backfield.

  • Early-Down Attempts: 15 (Robinson), 10 (Ekeler)
  • Stacked-Box Rate on Early Downs: 40.0%, 10.0%

While Ekeler has broken more tackles, he’s seen fewer defenders at the line of scrimmage. And we already know who’s the better receiver of the duo. Even as 9.5-point dogs, Ekeler taking on a larger role would lend itself to the Commanders not tipping their hand schematically. Either way, in a PPR format, Ekeler’s outlook as a receiver makes him a value add against the Lions. 

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET ($7,200)

Honestly, I originally had Puka Nacua here. I don’t think there’s going to be a Cooper Kupp resurgence, but I’m also weighing game environments. There’s snow in the forecast for Philadelphia on Sunday. Lincoln Financial Field does have heated pipes under the field to keep the surface playable. But if I’m looking for the “best play,” I’ll go to the guy in a dome.

Sure, having David Montgomery back might put a dent in the Lions’ passing rate. But the Sun God played with Sonic and Knuckles on the field for over three months. Simply put, he lived up to the nickname.

  • Target Share: 27.0%, 9th 
  • Targets per Route Run: 24.0%, 12th
  • UR Score: 7.8, 11th 

Surprisingly, the Commanders (partially) shored up their secondary. They went from giving up the second-most explosive receptions through the first 10 weeks to below the league average by Week 18. However, they still ranked fifth-worst in passing success rate allowed. In a game where we can see Jared Goff forced to pass, the defense matchup is conducive to St. Brown taking over yet another contest.

Amari Cooper, BUF ($4,400)

Admittedly, clicking on Amari Cooper is going to take a bit of faith. But I can make the case for him at such a low cost.

First, Buffalo knew they could attack the Broncos with their offensive line. They used six offensive linemen on multiple running plays, allowing them to lean into their rushing attack (-11.0% dropback over expectation rate). Subsequently, four of the Bills’ WRs were under a 55.0% route rate. While an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality might make sense, the Ravens have been one of the stingiest fronts to face. So, letting Josh Allen test the Ravens’ secondary might yield better results, which is where Cooper comes into play.

Baltimore typically plays a zone-style coverage (55.0% zone vs. 45.0% man) with Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens on the outside. Marlon Humphrey has been the Ravens' best CB but primarily plays on the interior. Regardless, Stephens was responsible for the 14th-most receiving yards allowed amongst all CBs over the final eight games of the season. Wiggins was in the top 20 for YAC per reception surrendered. 

Shakir’s target share will deem him the safest option of the Bills’ pass-catchers. However, if you want to swing for the fences, the threat of Cooper downfield might be the home run you need to have on your roster.

Tight End

Travis Kelce, KC ($5,000)

Since I suggested Patrick Mahomes, I had to find a receiver benefitting from his QB pulling the team to a three-peat. Travis Kelce usually fits the bill, but, like Mahomes, it’s been a “down” year relative to expectations. Coincidentally, his usage started to revive as the offense got ready for the stretch run.

  • Targets per Route Run: 19%(Weeks 1-6), 23% (weeks 12-17)
  • End-Zone Target Share: 14%, 18%
  • UR Score: 7.6, 8.6

I highlighted Kelce’s TPRR, as the offense has some new faces as of late. He was on the field with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, who made his NFL debut back in Week 1. Since Week 12, Worthy’s been at a 20.0% target share. DeAndre Hopkins joined the team. Marquise Brown is back. Oh, and Isiah Pacheco and Samaje Perine are snagging a few looks here and there. Simply put, Mahomes has more options and is still targeting his TE1.

Unfortunately, the Texans kept Kelce in check the last time they matched up (5-30-0, receiving stat line). However, other pass-catching TEs were able to cause some issues for Houston’s interior defense (Jonnu Smith: 19.8 PPR PTs, Mark Andrews: 14.8). The WRs will keep the defenders occupied. Meanwhile, Mahomes and Kelce will do what they do best.

Dallas Goedert, PHI ($3,900)

Now, I know what you’re thinking. You’re under the impression I’m expecting Dallas Goedert to stiff-arm his way into the paint every week. That’d be great. However, his workload is what caught my eye.

I’d put less stock in a one-game sample if it weren’t a playoff game. And in that match Jalen Hurts was under duress on 41.7% of his dropbacks. He responded by matching his second-lowest air yards per attempt in a single game all season (6.5). Middle-of-the-field throws were (nearly) nonexistent. Now, let’s look at the Rams’ defense.

The Rams had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again. They broke through Minnesota’s front on 54.0% of Darnold’s dropbacks. Simply put, it’s a similar setup for Hurts in the Divisional Round. So, while a 35.0% target share might look like an outlier, his path to paying off his cost at $3,900 would allow you to focus on other high-end options.

You can unlock the full suite of DFS tools, betting picks, projections and more with a FantasyLife+ Tier 2 membership below.