Here is the weekly NFL Pick’em Plays article by Geoff Ulrich to cover Underdog and PrizePicks plays.

If you’re new, last year I put together a five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I would also sometimes include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This year, I’m changing things up a bit. We’ll still be doing the Underdog section (and a full ticket), but I’ll also be doing entries for PrizePicks. The writeups will be a little shorter but there will be more picks. 

Less boring analysis from me, and more of those sweet, sweet picks, driven by our FantasyLife+ projections and our awesome new Pick’em Lineup Builder—which, once you try it, you will seriously never understand how you got by without it. 

Week 3 recap: We Hit The 65x Play!

It was a stellar week with the main Underdog card hitting on all five plays and paying off a massive 65x multiplier. 

As always, I loaded the play on Thursday in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season. Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on. 

Now let’s get to the Week 4 plays …

Underdog Pick’em (5-Way; 50.17x)

Just like last week, I am using the alternate lines on the Underdog app. Bumping up the totals slightly on all five players gets us up to a nice 50.17 payout this week, which is more than fine considering the upside spots some of these players are in. As always, I also don’t mind taking the regular lines and combining these five players for a lower variance lineup, but just know that if you do that you are also taking a much lower payout (around 14x). 

My main combo play this week is combining HIGHERs on Kyle Pitts and Kirk Cousins’ yardage totals in what I consider to be a very solid spot against New Orleans. 

We have both players projected to go for more than their regular total in the DFS lineup builder and the Saints under Dennis Allen have had issues guarding against athletic TEs. Last week they allowed Dallas Goedert to run scott free for 170 yards and they gave up two similar games to TJ Hockenson and Sam LaPorta last season. Combining these two takes down the payout a little, but gives us a nice starting block to build off. 

I’m going uncorrelated with my last three picks, but really like the upside with all three of these remaining plays. 

The Raiders have been yammering about running the ball 20+ times a game all season, and Zamir White, despite playing just 24% of the snaps last week, still somehow managed a 71% carry share. 

He’s their main carry back until further notice and gets a very banged up and demoralized Browns squad this week. Our projections are bullish on White’s HIGHER as they have him as high as 51 yards for the week, despite his regular line being in the mid-40’s. 

I also like the spots for Dalton Kincaid and DK Metcalf to outperform. Kincaid faces a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-most targets and receptions to opposing TEs this season, and should be in a solid game environment with the Ravens likely to keep this game close–and the Bills passing until late in the game. 

Metcalf is just a player I am bullish on every week, but particularly this week against Detroit. The Lions have allowed the most yards to opposing WRs this season and in the one close game the Seahawks have played this season, he received a 31% target share. With Seattle set as 3.5-point underdogs, it’s likely he approaches his target ceiling in this spot against a poor secondary, which is a great recipe for a big game. 

PrizePicks (6-Way; 15x)

Just like last week, I went more conservative with the totals, but still kept it to a six-way entry in case you wanted to use the lineup for PrizePicks flex Friday promotion. I started off with the same passing stack we used in the Underdog lineup, Pitts/Cousins, but used the regular totals in this card. I then went to the same game and included a More Than on Derek Carr’s pass completions, which is set at 19.5. 

The Falcons have allowed a 71.74% completion rate thus far and I expect they will be able to keep the game close or even have the lead at some point thanks to plays from Pitts/Cousins, making Carr likely to complete more than his regular number of passes (we have Carr projected for 20.0 completions). 

After that, I switched games and targeted New England and San Francisco, where I expect Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk to have a big day. Purdy has been great over his last two starts, completing 75% of his passes for 9.25 yards per attempt. The Patriots have not been great at limiting big plays and have now given up the eighth most yards to opposing WRs. Aiyuk has been disappointing to start, but let’s not forget that last season he had 7 games of 100+ yards games. Things could turn around fast for him this week. 

On the flip side, the 49ers lost a key defensive lineman in Javon Hargrave, which will certainly make it easier for Rhamondre Stevenson to get moving. We have Stevenson projected for 57 rush yards in the FL+ projections and given San Francisco’s injury problems, he does have the potential to outperform that mark by a wide margin.  

Additionally, if Stevenson does rush for a ton of yards and moves the ball for the Patriots, that’s only likely to force Purdy into more dropbacks. Hence we get a solid three-way correlation stack to include with our plays from ATL and NO.