Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 10.
Saquon Barkley over 92.5 rushing yards
It’s good to have Barkley back in our lives. The talented running back burst onto the scene as a rookie, leading the league with more than 2,000 scrimmage yards, but injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued him over the past few seasons. It hasn’t all been his fault – the Giants’ offensive line has ranged from bad to awful in recent years – but it started to feel like we had already seen the best from Barkley.
He’s cooled off a bit after starting the year red-hot, finishing with 83 rushing yards or fewer in three of his past four games. However, he’s still averaging 4.8 yards per attempt for the year, and he grades out favorably in ball-carrier metrics. He’s averaged 3.3 yards after contact, and he’s recorded the 12th-fastest top speed of all players.
Barkley is in the perfect spot to bounce back in Week 10. He’s taking on the Texans, which is the best possible matchup for a running back. They haven’t just been bad against the run this season; they’ve been downright awful. They rank dead-last in rush defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed at least 136 rushing yards in all but one game this season. Derrick Henry gashed the Texans for 219 yards two weeks ago, and Barkley could have a similar performance in Week 10.
Nov 6, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) drops back to pass against the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Justin Fields over 58.5 rushing yards
Fields has had a remarkable turnaround in recent weeks. The No. 11 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was looking like a massive bust, but he’s given Bears’ fans a glimmer of hope. He led the team to an upset win over the Patriots two weeks ago, and he followed that up with valiant efforts against the Cowboys and Dolphins.
The big reason for his turnaround? His legs. It’s no secret that Fields is one of the best athletes at the quarterback position. He blazed a 4.46 40-yard dash at his pro day, putting him in the 98th percentile for signal callers. That said, rushing wasn’t a huge part of his arsenal to start his career. He averaged just 35.0 rushing yards per game last year and only 38.8 rushing yards through the first five games this season.
Everything changed in Week 6. He racked up 88 yards on 12 carries versus the Commanders and nearly led the team to a comeback win. He hasn’t stopped running since, totaling at least 60 rushing yards in four straight games. I’m not expecting a repeat of last week’s performance – Fields set a record for QB rushing yards in a single game – but this number is too low now that Fields is finally utilizing his best asset.
Donovan Peoples-Jones over 3.5 receptions
The Browns are not known for their passing game, but Peoples-Jones has quietly emerged as a solid contributor. He’s racked up at least four catches in five straight games, and he’s proven to be a reliable option for Jacoby Brissett. He’s caught nearly 75% of his targets over that stretch, so he’s been extremely efficient. Amari Cooper remains the team’s top pass-catcher, but the gap between him and DPJ isn’t quite as large as you’d think: Cooper has a 24.8% target share over their past five games, while Peoples-Jones sits at 20.3%.
Both Cleveland receivers have the potential for solid performances against the Dolphins. Miami stands out as one of the best possible matchups for receivers. They rank 31st in pass defense, but they’re seventh in rush defense. That means opposing offenses have been much more successful when taking to the air so that Cleveland could throw the ball a bit more than usual. The Dolphins also have the potential to put plenty of points on the scoreboard so that this game could turn into a shootout.
Robert Tonyan over 27.5 receiving yards
I get it if you want nothing to do with the Packers’ passing attack. They’ve been awful this season, and last week’s performance versus the Lions was arguably their worst showing yet. The Lions entered that contest dead last in defensive DVOA, yet the Packers could only put nine points on the scoreboard. It dropped them to just 3-6, making them a massive longshot to qualify for the postseason.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the team also sustained some key injuries in that contest. Romeo Doubs and Aaron Jones both left the game in walking boots, and Doubs is expected to miss the next four to six weeks.
That opens the door for Tonyan to take on a slightly larger role vs. the Cowboys. He’s already been one of the few members of the Packers’ pass-catching corps that Rodgers actually trusts, and he’s racked up at least four targets in five straight weeks. He’s hit the over on his current receiving prop in the last four games, and I like his chances of doing it again in Week 10.
Oct 23, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller (29) interferes with Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan (85) during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Sam Ehlinger under 187.5 passing yards
How can the Colts possibly be competitive this Sunday? Not only did they fire their coach during the week, but they brought in a guy with zero coaching experience to take his spot. Now he has less than a week to get his team prepared to play the Raiders. Maybe Jeff Saturday will be a good NFL coach, but he’s certainly not in a position for success right out of the gate.
One thing I do feel confident saying is that Ehlinger is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. That’s not exactly a huge limb to be out on, which is why he was merely a sixth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He was not expected to get any playing time this season, but things changed after the team benched Matt Ryan.
Ehlinger looked overmatched last week facing the Patriots, completing just 51.72% of his passes for 103 yards and an interception. He averaged just 2.0 adjusted yards per attempt, and while the Raiders are a better matchup, I’m not expecting a ton of improvement moving forward.
