Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.

You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? 

The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.

For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit of up to $100.

Sleeper

Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests for Super Bowl LVII.

Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions

Mahomes turned in another fantastic season for the Chiefs, leading the league in both passing yards and touchdowns. He’s headed to his third Super Bowl in the last four years, and he will almost certainly take home his second MVP award.

However, Mahomes is not opposed to throwing an interception or two. He had 12 interceptions this season, and he threw at least one pick in nine of 17 regular season games. He had 13 interceptions the year prior, so ball security is not one of Mahomes’ biggest strengths.

That doesn’t bode well for his chances of keeping a clean sheet vs. the Eagles. They boast everything that you look for in a passing defense. 

They were first in the league in adjusted sack rate, and they generated 70 sacks during the regular season. No other team had more than 55, so the gap between the Eagles and the rest of the league was big enough to drive a truck through. With Mahomes’ mobility still a major question mark, that could spell disaster.

If the Eagles’ pass rush doesn’t get to Mahomes, he’ll still have to navigate one of the best cornerback trios in football. Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox all finished with a top 23 grade at the cornerback position per Pro Football Focus, so there are no weak spots to pick on.

Finally, the Eagles’ defense was opportunistic, racking up 17 picks during the regular season. That was tied for the fourth-most in football, so they’re capable of generating turnovers. Ultimately, I like their chances of creating a pick in this spot.

Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing Yards

The Eagles have utilized a committee approach in their backfield all season. 

Miles Sanders has served as the team’s top option, while Gainwell and Boston Scott have factored into the equation as well. Add in one of the best running quarterbacks in football in Jalen Hurts, and an outstanding offensive line, and it’s no surprise that the Eagles had tons of success moving the ball on the ground. They were first in Football Outsiders rushing DVOA, and they averaged the fourth-most rushing yards per game.

The team should be able to generate plenty of rushing yards against the Chiefs, who are a mediocre defensive squad. Their numbers don’t jump off the page as bad, but they ranked just 21st in adjusted yard lines on defense. 

They’ve held their own against the Jaguars and Bengals, but the Eagles are a completely different animal.

The bigger question is how the carries will be split. Gainwell has been busy the past two weeks, but the Eagles have played in back-to-back blowouts. I wouldn’t expect another double-digit carry performance vs. the Chiefs, but it’s nice to know that it’s at least in the range of outcomes.

Even if Gainwell does revert to his usual 5-8 carries, that should still be more than enough to get to 20 rushing yards. Gainwell averaged 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season, and he’s averaged at least 7.0 yards per carry in two of his past three games. Ultimately, Gainwell has had at least five carries in seven games – including three each of his past three – and he’s finished with at least 20 rushing yards in six of them. This number seems a bit too low.

A.J. Brown Under 70.5 Receiving Yards

The story of the Eagles’ postseason has largely been the same as during the regular season: they haven’t really been tested. They opened the postseason with a matchup vs. the Giants, who weren’t in the same weight class. Last week’s matchup vs. the 49ers looked great on paper, but injuries to Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson left the team without a quarterback in the second half. That took a lot of the sting out of the matchup.

This game should be more competitive, but don’t expect the Eagles’ to abandon their roots. I fully expect the Eagles to be able to run the ball in this contest, and given Hurts’ struggles since returning to the lineup, they should lean on their ground game quite a bit.

With that in mind, Brown’s receiving number seems a bit too high. He’s averaged seven targets over his two playoff contests, but he’s managed just seven total catches for 50 yards. DeVonta Smith and Brown have both served as the team’s top receiver at times this season, so I’m not sure why Brown’s receiving prop is 10 yards higher than Smith’s.

If you play Pick'em on Underdog, check out my picks here. 

We've been cranking out Super Bowl content all week. If you need something, chances are we have it. 

Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca has worked full-time in the sports betting and DFS industry since 2018, with his work appearing on sites like The Action Network, DraftKings, Awesemo, and Props.com. He has a proven record as a bettor thanks to his analytic approach focused on line movement, public betting percentages, and trends. He specializes in the NFL and NBA sides, but he’s also had success in MLB, college football, and the player prop market. Matt is also an avid Mets fan who hopes to be alive for the team’s next World Series, whenever that may be.
Read More