Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 11.
Brandin Cooks Under 54.5 receiving yards
Cooks returned to the Texans’ lineup in Week 10 following a one-week hiatus. He was pouting about the fact that the Texans did not trade him before the deadline, which is understandable: no one wants to play for the Texans if they don’t have to.
However, Cooks may have lost his status as the team’s No. 1 receiver when he was on the sidelines. He had just seven targets last week, while Nico Collins led the way with 10. That gap between Cooks and Collins has been pretty slim, to begin with – Cooks has a 22.3% target share, Collins is at 16.67% – and the Texans are playing for nothing at this point. It would not be a surprise if the team looks to feature Collins more down the stretch, who was their third-round pick in 2021.
The Texans are not the type of team that can support multiple pass-catchers. They have a pass rate above expectation of -5.8%, and they like to lean on Dameon Pierce in the run game whenever possible.
Add in a tough matchup against a better-than-expected Commanders’ defense, and this has all the makings of an under.
Matthew Stafford Under 232.5 passing yards
The big news in Los Angeles involves the injury to Cooper Kupp, who will miss an extended period. He was officially placed on Injured Reserve after undergoing ankle surgery, and while his season isn’t officially over, the Rams might be.
How is the Rams’ offense possibly going to survive without him? Kupp has done everything for the Rams this season. He’s racked up 30.9% of the team’s targets and 34.5% of their air yards, which probably undersells his importance to the passing game.
Stafford has played in eight games this season and averaged just 241.0 passing yards per game. That’s down more than 45 yards from his average of 287.4 last season, and his efficiency numbers have fallen off a cliff. Kupp has averaged more than 101.5 receiving yards per game with Stafford at the helm, so he’s averaging nearly as much as the rest of the team combined.
It’s hard to see any of the remaining pass-catchers stepping up in Kupp’s absence. Allen Robinson hasn’t looked like the same player after being acquired in the offseason, and none of their other options projects as more than a complimentary piece. The Saints are an average defense, but it’s hard to envision Stafford overcoming such a massive blow.
If you're playing on Underdog, here is another way to fade the Rams, with an Allen Robinson under play.
Jarvis Landry Over 34.5 receiving yards
Landry returned from an extended injury absence last week and stepped right back into a sizable workload. He played on 37 of 47 snaps and posted a route participation of 82%, both of which compared favorably with top receiver Chris Olave. Landry also had more targets than Olave and was targeted on a higher percentage of his routes run. While Olave’s status as the team’s top receiver is not in jeopardy, there should be more than enough leftover for Landry.
Both players should see a spike in production this week vs. the Rams. Their defense has been a pass funnel this season, ranking 21st in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA but fourth against the run. The Rams are in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per game allowed, but they’ve allowed the seventh-most over their past three games. Those contests have come against the 49ers, Buccaneers, and Cardinals, who are not exactly known for airing it out.
Ultimately, Landry is a solid bet for around six targets in this contest, which he should be able to convert into more than 34.5 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 rushing yards
2022-23 has to be one of the most dysfunctional NFL seasons in a while. The Colts managed to win last week with Jeff Saturday coaching his first NFL game, but it’s hard to call that situation anything other than a fiasco. Nathaniel Hackett also continues to make baffling decisions on a weekly basis in Denver, while Kliff Kingsbury is continuously on the hot seat in Arizona.
That said, the Raiders might take the cake. Josh McDaniels has reportedly lost the locker room to the point where his franchise quarterback is crying about other players in his postgame interview. There has been speculation that McDaniels already would’ve been fired if not for the fact that the Raiders don’t have enough money to hire a new coach. You can’t make this stuff up.
One thing that McDaniels has done right this season is utilize Jacobs. He’s averaging a career-best 5.2 yards per attempt, resulting in an average of 91.2 yards per game. He was unable to truly get things going last week vs. the Colts, but he still finished with 78 yards on 21 carries.
Jacobs should continue to see all the work that he can possibly handle this week vs. the Broncos. For all their faults, the Broncos have had a stout pass defense this year, ranking third in pass defense DVOA. They drop down to 20th against the run, so teams have been much more successful when sticking with the ground game.
Expect Jacobs to handle around 20 carries in this spot, making him a strong over candidate.
Michael Gallup Under 42.5 receiving yards
The Cowboys will square off with the 8-1 Vikings in one of Week 11’s marquee matchups. The Vikings continue to survive by the skin of their teeth, pulling out another Houdini act last week vs. the Bills.
Buffalo’s win expectation got to over 99.8% after stuffing the Vikings on a goal-line stand, but the Vikings clearly don’t play by the same rules as the rest of the league.
They’re going to get a stiff test from the Cowboys, who head to Minnesota as road favorites. The Vikings have been pretty average in terms of defensive DVOA this season, and they’ve actually allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game.
That said, I don’t expect Gallup to be a huge part of the equation. He has just a 17.34% target share for the year, putting him well behind CeeDee Lamb in the pecking order. Dalton Schultz has also posted a larger target share, especially in recent weeks.
Gallup has ultimately hit the over on his current receiving prop in just two of six games this season, and he’s yet to go for more than 49 yards in a game. Even in a solid matchup, this number is simply too high.
