Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit of up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 18.
Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!
Isaiah McKenzie Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve officially made it to Week 18, which can only mean one thing: incentive season. Players often have bonuses worked into their contracts for reaching statistical milestones, and there are two ways you can approach it.
You can look to target players who are close to incentives if you believe the team is going to feed them a bit more than usual, or you can look to fade them if you believe the lines have become too inflated.
McKenzie stands out as someone that I want to play this week. He needs to get to 46 receiving yards to earn a $100k bonus, and given that McKenzie is not a superstar, that’s a not-insignificant chunk of change.
He has just two games with more than 46 receiving yards all season, but he has at least 37 receiving yards in five of them. That includes 44 yards in his first meeting vs. the Patriots in Week 13, so we have a bit of wiggle room with the current number.
The Bills also figure to take this game very seriously. They can’t get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the Chiefs win on Saturday, but getting a win would still be very important. If they finish 0.5 games behind the Chiefs in the standings, it would ensure that the AFC Championship game would be played on a neutral field should both teams make it that far. That’s definitely worth playing for.
Gus Edwards Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
The Ravens have officially been eliminated from winning the AFC North, but their spot in the playoffs is secure. However, they might still have something to play for.
The league has proposed a scenario where if the Ravens beat the Bengals on Sunday – and therefore finish with the same number of wins and one more loss – they could still host a playoff game should these teams meet in the postseason. A coin flip would decide who would have home-field advantage, and while that scenario has to be given final approval, it did get the thumbs up from the competition committee.
That means the Ravens still might have something to play for, but it remains to be seen if that will actually matter. The offense has looked dreadful since losing Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and he’ll miss his fifth-straight game.
The team has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their past five games, and they’ve averaged just 291.4 yards per game over that stretch. That doesn’t bode well against a Bengals’ defense that has been pleasantly surprising this season.
Edwards has also seen his role with the offense diminish recently. J.K. Dobbins has re-established himself as the team’s top runner, racking up 68% of their rushing attempts last week. That left just 12% of the carries for Edwards, which represented a significant decrease from his mark in recent weeks.
Add it all up, and this seems like a strong under candidate.
Baker Mayfield Over 186.5 Passing Yards
Mayfield’s tenure with the Rams has been very up and down. It started on a major high note, leading the team on a game-winning 98-yard touchdown drive just days after signing with the organization. He also had an awesome performance against the Broncos’ excellent defense, racking up 230 passing yards with 9.64 adjusted yards per attempt.
Unfortunately, his other performances haven’t been nearly as impressive, racking up 132 yards or fewer in games against the Packers and Chargers.
His poor performances have both come on the road, and he’ll be on the road again this week vs. the Seahawks. Luckily, the matchup is a good one. The Seahawks have been a mediocre defensive squad this season, ranking just 21st in Football Outsiders DVOA. Their offense is also very capable, which creates a situation where opposing teams often need to score points to keep up. The Seahawks are also still playing to get into the playoffs, so expect their offense to do some damage vs. the Rams.
Mayfield is going to have to throw the ball more than he did last week to keep up. He’s averaged just 20 pass attempts in the two games where he failed to hit the over on 186.5 yards, but he’s averaged 31.5 in the two games he has. I expect his volume to be closer to the latter in this spot.
A.J. Dillon Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
The playoffs for the Packers start in Week 18. In reality, they started a few weeks ago, but they can officially punch their playoff ticket with a win over the Lions on Sunday Night Football. It’s quite a turnaround for a team that was basically left for dead after losing seven games in an eight-game stretch earlier this season.
While the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, they’ve blossomed into more of a run-heavy offense in 2022-23. That makes sense: the team ranks third in rushing DVOA but just 15th in passing DVOA.
They have one of the best 1-2 punches at running back in football with Dillon and Aaron Jones. While Jones is the more complete player, Dillon is their preferred between-the-tackles grinder. He’s been particularly active in the team’s recent four-game win streak, averaging 13 carries and 51.5 yards per game.
That bodes well for his output vs. the Lions. The Lions’ defense has been vulnerable all year, particularly on the ground. They rank 27th in rush defense DVOA, so Dillon has a chance for a big performance in this matchup.
Deshaun Watson Under 209.5 Passing Yards
Everyone knew that Watson would have to shake off some rust after missing essentially two full years, but I don’t think anyone expected it to be this bad.
He has not looked like nearly the same player that he was in Houston, averaging just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt. He averaged 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt in his last season with the Texans despite playing on a team with minimal talent.
Watson did turn in his best performance last week, but he did it more with efficiency than volume.
He finished with 169 passing yards and three touchdowns on just 18 attempts vs. the Commanders, good for an average of 12.72 adjusted yards per attempt. The Browns have arguably the best rushing attack in football, so it makes sense to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as much as possible.
This week, Watson has to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the Steelers. They continue to win games with their elite defense, posting a record of 7-2 with T.J. Watt in the lineup. They’ve allowed 188 net passing yards or fewer in six straight games, so this number seems way too high.
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