Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit of up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests during the NFL Wild Card Round.
Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!
Irv Smith Jr. Under 15.5 Receiving Yards
Smith was activated from Injured Reserve before the Vikings’ Week 18 matchup versus the Bears, so he will presumably play a role for the team during the postseason. He played on 45% of the snaps last week, but that number was inflated since the team had nothing to play for. T.J. Hockenson was on the field for just 46% of the team’s snaps, but that figure was closer to 90% in previous weeks.
Even when Smith is on the field, he’s pretty far down on the Vikings’ pecking order. Hockenson is one of the better receiving tight ends in football, while Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn are going to get plenty of looks as well. Add in Dalvin Cook, who had four targets and three catches against the Giants in the regular season, and Smith is potentially the No. 6 option in this passing attack.
Even with Smith’s inflated role last week, he still managed just 14 yards on his three catches. The Giants are a solid matchup for tight ends, but I don’t think he’ll be on the field enough for that to actually matter.
Keenan Allen Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
Allen is in a potential smash spot for the Chargers’ Wild Card matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville possesses the worst passing defense among the 14 playoff teams, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve struggled in particular against No. 1 receivers, ranking 28th in DVOA in that split.
Since returning to the lineup in Week 11, Allen has been an unquestioned No. 1 receiver. Per Fantasy Life’s data guru Dwain McFarland, Allen has posted a 26% target share over his past eight contests, and he’s finished as the WR2 for fantasy purposes. Fantasy points don’t translate directly to yards per game, but it’s hard to rack up points without putting some yards on the board. Allen has had at least 86 yards in five of his past six games, despite Mike Williams being available for five of them.
Williams is going to miss this contest after suffering a back injury in last week’s meaningless loss to the Broncos. Head coach Brandon Staley is catching a ton of heat for his decision to play his starters in that contest, but Williams’ loss should be Allen’s gain. I like his chances of going over 81 yards in this matchup.
Deebo Samuel Under 14.5 Rushing Yards
Samuel returned to the 49ers’ lineup in Week 18, and he’s historically been a huge part of their offense. He’s been deployed all over the field, operating as a Swiss Army Knife for a team that lacked playmakers. That includes being used in the run game, and he averaged 3.8 carries in his first six contests this season.
However, things changed for the 49ers when they acquired Christian McCaffrey. They are all of a sudden blessed with one of the most impressive groups of skill position players in the entire league. McCaffrey’s do-it-all skillset at running back combined with Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle gives the team an embarrassment of riches.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the team hasn’t really needed to utilize Deebo as a runner quite as much. He hasn’t had more than four carries in any game since McCaffrey joined the fold, and he’s been held to single-digit rushing yards in four of seven contests.
The team is still going to get the ball into Samuel’s hands during the playoffs, but they may not need to do it against the Seahawks. They’re favored by nearly double-digits, and they beat them by 20 points when they met in San Francisco earlier this year. The 49ers have gotten significantly better since then, so this game could get ugly. Expect Kyle Shanahan to save some of his more exotic playcalls for later in the postseason.
Daniel Jones Under 242.5 Passing Yards
Jones has put the Giants in an interesting position for the offseason. The team declined his fifth-year option, and it was widely assumed that they would draft a quarterback after another disappointing season. Of course, things did not go to plan in the best way possible. The Giants are in the postseason, and Jones’ play has been a big reason why. He’s earned the right to start somewhere next season, and it may end up being in New York. I’m not sure if a player has ever had his option declined and then re-signed with the organization, but Jones is a candidate this offseason.
Part of what has made Jones so impressive this season is who he’s had to throw to. His top receivers for most of the year have been Darius Slayton, Richie James Jr., and Isaiah Hodgins. That’s embarrassing for the modern NFL.
Jones should be able to find success against the Vikings, but asking him to get to 243 passing yards is a lot. He’s averaged just 200.3 passing yards per game this season, and he was held below 243 in all but two games. One of the exceptions was against the Vikings, but that game stands out as a clear outlier. Jones should be active with his legs and Saquon Barkley should be busy in the run game, so I don’t think Jones will need to throw the ball quite as much in the rematch.
Tom Brady Under 28.5 Completions
Brady hasn’t had the greatest statistical season by his lofty standards. He averaged just 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt – his lowest mark since 2002 – and his touchdown rate was nearly half of what it was in his first season with the Bucs. Still, what he did was impressive nonetheless. He led the league in both pass attempts and completions at the ripe old age of 45. While most quarterbacks would be on their second broadcast contract by now, Brady is headed back to the playoffs for the 14th consecutive year.
His reward? A matchup with the Cowboys’ ferocious pass-rush. The Buccaneers have had issues on the offensive line all season, which does not bode well for a matchup with Micah Parsons and company. They rank second in the league in adjusted sack rate, and they brought down Brady twice in their first matchup this season. The GOAT attempted just 27 passes in that contest, his lowest mark of the year until a meaningless Week 18 game versus the Falcons.
The Cowboys have plenty of questions to answer this postseason, but the pass-rush should make life miserable for Brady. I’ll take my chances with under 28.5 completions.
If you play Pick'em on Underdog Fantasy, check out my picks here.
