PrizePicks is a great site to get some single-player DFS exposure on. 

I wrote about how PrizePicks works (and where it's legal) in another article, and FantasyLife+ subscribers will also have access to our great Pick’Em lineup builder, which uses projections for PrizePick totals. 

For today, we’re focusing exclusively on PrizePicks and their current Super Bowl 59 lines. PrizePicks has a ton of player totals available on their site for building lineups, for pretty much every player who will be involved in the big game.

PrizePicks Super Bowl 59 Strategy

There are a couple of different ways you can approach building Pick’Em lineups. I love to use the Fantasy Life projections but also try to build my lineups with a story in mind as to how the game will go, so my picks end up being correlated if I’m right. 

For the Super Bowl, I created three different PrizePicks lineups, with each having a little different direction as to strategy.

Let’s dig in and see if we can’t build some big winners for next Sunday.

Best Super Bowl 59 Picks for PrizePicks

The Statistician’s Special – 4-way (7.5x Multiplier)

I called this one the Statician’s special because I built it almost exclusively off the Fantasy Life projections that I thought were showing the biggest edges this week. Here is where we stand on the four players in this build.

Patrick Mahomes: 

  • Projection – 236 yards
  • PrizePicks – 252.5
  • Edge 26 yards

Xavier Worthy:

  • Projection – 6.9 targets
  • PrizePicks – 7.5
  • Edge – 0.6 targets

DeVonta Smith:

  • Projection – 5.8 targets
  • PrizePicks – 6.5 targets
  • Edge – 0.7 targets

Saquon Barkley:

  • Projection – 19.8 carries
  • PrizePicks – 22.0 carries
  • Edge – 2.2 carries

Worthy and Mahomes correlate nicely since lower passing volume would both mean a worse chance for Patrick Mahomes to get over 252.5 passing yards and fewer targets for Worthy. The rookie did go over this in three straight games to end the year, but averaged 6.5 targets in the Chiefs' first two playoff games.

Mahomes going under his total for yards wouldn’t necessarily be bullish for Barkley or everyone on the Eagles' offense either. He threw for under 200 yards in the Super Bowl vs Philadelphia in 2023 as the Chiefs ran the ball effectively, which also caused Jalen Hurts to throw far more.

If they do so again, that could mean fewer carries for Barkley, who went way under this number vs the Commanders (15 carries).

Smith, I view as a solid fade candidate this Sunday almost regardless of what kind of game script you’re building around. With Dallas Goedert’s usage up, he’s being treated as more of the third target in this offense, but still has big totals in most markets. The WR has seen four targets in each of the Eagles' first three playoff games and gone under 6.5 targets in seven of his last 10 games overall.

 

The Two-Way Demon – 2-way (10x multiplier) 

Goedert and Smith-Schuster are two players I’m bullish on for this Sunday.

Smith-Schuster only caught two passes vs the Bills, but he played on 58% of the snaps and had a 12% target share. His route rate vs the Bills also went way up from 41% vs the Texans to 63%. The former Steelers WR played against the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 and saw 9 targets in that game and caught 7 passes. As the Chiefs starting slot corner against a defense with terrific outside corners, I think he’s likely in for a busier day than his current totals suggest.

As far as Goedert goes, he’s a player who has been on the rise late in the season. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 5 receptions and 62 yards per game and generally outperformed WR2 DeVonta Smith in most usage metrics. The Chiefs have also been terrible against TEs this season, allowing 5.9 receptions and 66.2 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs, which ranked them bottom three in both areas as a defense.

You could take the alternate lines (PrizePicks demon lines) on Goedert in this spot, but I went the TD route instead. Any score by Goedert likely means the Eagles are pushing the pace through the air and that will force the Chiefs to react by throwing more as well, which should help Smith-Schuster.

Overall, I think these two plays correlate nicely, and since it’s just a two-way ticket we really only need a couple of things to break our way to hit a 10x payout. 

 

The Big One – 6-way Power Play (17.5x Multiplier)

It’s the Super Bowl—you can’t properly sweat the Big Game without a Big ticket on PrizePicks. There is quite a bit of overlap with some of these props from the previous lineups but I’ll give you a quick breakdown of the thought process below.

  • Fade the Eagles rushing game and focus on the pass (Hurts Higher + Goedert Higher + Barkley Lower)
     
  • Keep fading Smith for Goedert given the recent usage and matchup (Chiefs are terrible against TEs)
     
  • Play the lower reception totals on the Chiefs receivers and RBs, thanks to their rotation at both positions (Pacheco at least one catch in 7 of 9 games this season)

If you wanted to get this bigger, you could look to boost the payout by using the demon lines on some of these players, mainly Goedert, Hurts, or Smith-Schuster.

Either way, I like that most of these are in line with our projections and offer solid correlation for the most part through the six-man build.