SB Showdown

We’re down to the final game of the NFL season. That said, there are still some big DFS contests with big prize pools for Super Bowl LVIII.

Who should you be rostering? Who should you avoid? Who should be your answer at Captain? We’ll dive into all these questions and more with the help of the Paydirt DFS simulations.

These results are from a contest simulation model based on large field contests on DraftKings. The “Proj Own” is the projected ownership for the player in the CPT or FLEX position, while the “Exposure” is the percentage of times a player appeared in a lineup that won the simulated contest. The “Edge” is the difference between the exposure and projected ownership and can be used as a proxy for how over or undervalued a player is.

Captain Ownership Distributions

Captain

When considering a captain for the matchup, your best bet is to go with one of four players: Isiah Pacheco, George Kittle, Brock Purdy, or Christian McCaffrey. All four have a strong edge over their projected ownership at the position and have ceilings that can win you a contest. The players that you should be more wary of are both kickers (Jake Moody and Harrison Butker), along with Patrick Mahomes and Brandon Aiyuk.

It’s worth noting that a negative edge doesn’t mean you cannot use a player, just that you should make sure you are canceling it out with a positive edge elsewhere.

Pacheco

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) stands on the field after a failed fourth down attempt against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

FLEX Ownership Distributions

Flex

Looking at the distributions at the FLEX position, we see some clear edges to exploit at the top: McCaffrey, Pacheco, and Purdy. All three were consistently in the positive edge range in a handful of simulations. The main options that are overvalued are Moody and Kittle. Kittle is particularly interesting because he was undervalued at Captain, but that’s not the case in the flex spot.

Based on the simulation results, focusing on both RBs and leaning toward Purdy over Mahomes is the right move in large-field contests.

CPT and FLEX Notes:

  • It makes a lot of sense to focus on the 49ers side here. Not only are they favorites — and teams that score more points typically produce more fantasy points — but also because guys like Purdy will go under-owned relative to their upside.
  • Both of these defenses are strong, so using just one QB instead of two (most people will play for a shootout) can give you some easy differentiation from the field.
  • Every build should start with McCaffrey in either the captain or flex. He’s a lock on most showdown slates, especially one without a ton of other premium options.

Duplication Projections and DFS Lineups to Avoid

Here are a few of the lineups that are popping with the highest combined ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large-field GPPs:

Own

Some notes:

  • The ownership sums for this slate are all relatively low (we typically start seeing significant duplication in the 230+ range), so you won’t have to do nearly as much duplication mitigation as usual.
  • There is no real clear combo people are latching onto in the FLEX; it’s mostly just McCaffrey everywhere.
  • You’re going to see a lot of double-kicker lineups.

With people aiming to afford CMC and Mahomes, you’ll see a lot of double-kicker and heavy stars and studs lineups, which introduces some interesting game theory concepts. If you choose to go with only one of McCaffrey or Mahomes, you’ll be able to garner a stronger median projection while lowering duplications, which is kind of the holy grail of showdown construction.

One note here is the lack of 49ers Captains in the ownership projections, reiterating the thoughts above on focusing on the 49ers side.

CMC

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the first half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The Super Bowl is an awesome time to rejoice and give the season a deserving send-off, but it’s also the best time to be a degenerate who plays DFS. This game should provide something great to both sides, as the game has the potential to be incredible for both real life and fantasy, especially since both teams have creative offensive-minded coaches to draw up some whacky touchdown plays.

Based on the contest simulations and data above, the lean has to be towards the 49ers if you are playing larger fields. McCaffrey should be in every lineup regardless, as his edge in both the FLEX and the CPT slots is solid, but taking the extra step and pairing him with Purdy is a way to unlock another step of upside.

The more I think about it, this slate really comes down to a straightforward decision: If you use Purdy instead of Mahomes, you can do whatever you want while using the same players as everyone else. Likewise, Purdy's synergy with many of the more talented players and Captain options makes him the clear skeleton key to this slate.

The other route to attacking large field contests here is focusing on Pacheco and the Chiefs DST. If you believe that the Chiefs win this game, taking an angle that focuses on the ground game in a low-scoring contest can pay off really well. Doing so with Pacheco at Captain paired with the Chiefs DST and CMC in the FLEX leaves more than enough salary to fit in some of the other high-priced studs as well.

All that said, my lean is going with either Aiyuk or CMC in the Captain slot and making sure to have Purdy over Mahomes while filling in the FLEX with value plays from the Chiefs' secondary WRs.

Some plays that look overvalued:

  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Jake Moody
  • Chiefs DST

Some plays that look undervalued:

  • Brock Purdy
  • Christian McCaffrey
  • Isiah Pacheco

Good luck and bink a unique!