This isn't your typical "Super Bowl" picks column. I'm not here to claim I've "found an edge" or share "+EV" selections.
Instead, I'm here to put together an Underdog entry card that maximizes entertainment equity (ideally with friends) during the Super Bowl.
For background, I have a group chat with my college buddies, and they love tailing my Underdog picks. Every year, we meet up somewhere fun during the Divisional Round to hang out and sweat the games.
And one thing I've learned over the years is how to put together Pick 'Em entries that lead to the most enjoyable collective viewing experience.
This differs from how I would otherwise make pick 'ems, which generally entails looking for the picks with the most value relative to our projection models or making super longshot picks with a big payout but a low probability of hitting.
The key to putting together the perfect entertainment card is to 1) make it as simple as possible to sweat (I call them "clean sweats") and 2) to make them achievable to win (all of these are two-leggers, with very little funny business).
Also, I assume this goes without saying, but this card will feature zero "lowers." If you want to "root" for a crummy game with no scoring, go do that in the darkness of your own basement. This is all about capturing the enjoyment around a game that shoots out with your pals.
OK, with all that being said, here are my recommended entries for the Super Bowl. Share 'em with your friends or whoever you'll be watching the game with and enjoy the camaraderie.
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THE CORE - Kelce & Barkley (3.43x)
The definition: Two high-conviction picks that will be relevant throughout the entire game.
The picks:
- Travis Kelce - higher 6.5 receptions (1.1x)
- Saquon Barkley - higher 22.5 rushing attempts (1.04x)
The reason: Kelce and Barkley are the engines of their respective offenses. Sure, these are decently large numbers, but these two will be heavily featured throughout the game.
While it's fun to root for a fringe dart throw (say Noah Gray to clear 1.5 receptions), it can be painful to wait around all game hoping for one or two opportunities. With Barkley and Kelce, you don't have to worry about them fully disappearing on the biggest stage.
And best of all, as of the time of this writing, both are coming in at plus money.
Tail: Click here to tail.
THE TUDDIES - Hunt & AJB (4.33x)
The definition: Two players to score a TD. Clean and simple.
The picks:
- Kareem Hunt - TD (1.12x)
- A.J. Brown -TD (1.29x)
The reason: Hunt is now the clear goal line back in KC. He has a TD in each of the team's past four games. I'm frankly surprised we are getting this at plus odds considering how consistent his usage (and execution) has been around the goal line.
On the Eagles side, it's a bit trickier. Barkley (.67x) and Jalen Hurts (.9x) are the omega favorites to score for Philly, which means we have to look elsewhere for plus odds. Enter: AJB, a man who finally tapped into his Inner Excellence in the Conference Championships for 96 yards and a score.
He has a TD in three of his past five games, and I love his chances of scoring a TD in this spot.
Tail: Click here to tail.
ONE PLAY - Barkley & Brown (3x)
The definition: Two picks that can get home in a single play.
The picks:
- Saquon Barkley - Longest rush higher than 23.5 (1x)
- Hollywood Brown - Longest reception higher than 18.5 (1x)
The reason: There's nothing more fun than sweating an explosive play. Barkley smashed his longest rush on the opening play of the game vs. the Commanders and Brown has been flirting with big plays throughout the postseason.
Obviously, we are invested in Barkley via his rushing attempts number as well, but it's nice to have outs to winning solely on efficiency and not just volume.
When these types of picks hit, the chest bumps start flying.
Tail: Click here to tail.
THE HAIL MARY - DeVonta & Xavier (50x)
The definition: Sliding two players capable of big games for a bigger payout.
The picks:
- DeVonta Smith - higher 99.5 rec yards (4.53x)
- Xavier Worthy - higher 99.5 rec yards (3.64x)
The reason: OK, I said no "funny business" but a Super Bowl card would not be complete without one hail mary long shot with a big payout. I know Cooterdoodle agrees.
The key with these selections is to diversify them slightly from the other core picks and tap into the players with high volatility and a wide range of outcomes.
Fortunately, both Smith and Worthy check these boxes. These guys are both big-play merchants who can chew up yardage quickly.
They also correlate well together — if one of them scores on a big play, it speeds up the game for the other player.
These picks also have the ability to serve as a hedge to the core selections. If Kelce and Barkley aren't racking up catches and carries, it could be because these two are dominating with big plays instead.
The multiplier (50x) indicates that this selection will rarely hit (so size your entry accordingly), but it's pure euphoria when it does.
Tail: Click here to tail.
Good luck and enjoy the game.