Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.

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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for the Big Game.

Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!

Jerick McKinnon Over 21.5 Rushing Yards

How the Chiefs choose to delegate the running back responsibilities is one of the biggest questions heading into the Super Bowl. 

McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco have split the responsibilities ever since Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down with an injury. There’s a chance that CEH is activated from Injured Reserve before the Super Bowl, but he’s likely to remain a non-factor in the team’s backfield.

Traditionally, Pacheco has handled most of the between-the-tackles work in the Chiefs’ backfield, while McKinnon has done everything else. 

However, those roles shifted a bit last week. McKinnon played on 65% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. the Jaguars, but that figure dipped to just 39% vs. the Bengals. Unsurprisingly, Pacheco saw an uptick in snaps over the same timeframe.

That makes McKinnon an interesting buy-low target this week. He’s played on closer to 50% of the snaps in most weeks, and he averaged 5.5 carries over his final six regular season contests. That figure increased to 11 vs. the Jaguars before dipping to just four vs. the Bengals. McKinnon has averaged 4.0 yards per carry this season, so five carries could be enough to hit the over on 21.5 yards.

The Eagles also stand out as a strong matchup for the Chiefs’ RBs. They’ve been the best pass defense in football this season, ranking first in adjusted sack rate and Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. However, they’ve been much more exploitable against the run. 

With that in mind, the Chiefs’ could lean on their running backs a bit more than they did last week.

Patrick Mahomes Under 20.5 Rushing Yards

  • Editors note: this line is now at 18.5

For most of his career, taking the over on Mahomes’ rushing prop during the postseason has been a strong investment. He played in 11 playoff contests prior to this season, and he averaged just under 30 rushing yards per game. Mahomes has averaged just 19.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, so he’s clearly more willing to use his legs more when the games are at their most important.

Of course, this year has been a bit different. Mahomes suffered an injury in his first playoff contest, which was reported to be a high-ankle sprain. 

The Chiefs never confirmed that injury, and Mahomes wasn’t as hobbled as most expected in his win over the Bengals. Still, he was clearly hampered at times, and he resorted to running only when absolutely necessary.

Overall, Mahomes has now rushed just three times in his two playoff contests, and he’s racked up just 16 total yards. It’s possible that the extra week off will help Mahomes look more like his old self, but I’m still not expecting him to be at 100%. Add in a ferocious Eagles’ pass-rush, and I don’t anticipate Mahomes racking up huge chunks with his legs.

Travis Kelce Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns

Death, taxes, and Kelce in the playoffs. 

Those are three of life’s great certainties.

Kelce had a mortal performance in the AFC Championship, finishing with just seven catches for 78 yards. 

It snapped a string of seven straight playoff games with at least 95 receiving yards, but it was still enough to propel him to the second-most receiving yards in playoff history. Only the great Jerry Rice has amassed more receiving yards during the playoffs, and Rob Gronkowski is the only other tight end even in the same stratosphere.

Despite the subpar performance, Kelce still did what he does best: find his way into the end zone. Kelce finished with 12 receiving touchdowns during the regular season, and Pro Football Focus credited him with the most expected receiving touchdowns in the entire league. 

Part of that stems from playing with Mahomes, but Kelce also has an unparalleled workload in the red zone. He led the league in red zone targets, and the team will look for creative ways to try to get the ball in his hands.

With his score vs. the Bengals, Kelce has now found the paint in eight of his past nine postseason contests. The lone exception was the Super Bowl loss against the Buccaneers, and the Chiefs managed just nine points. Mahomes spent most of that game running for his life behind a patchwork offensive line, so it’s reasonable that Kelce didn’t find the paint in that spot.

The Chiefs also have a bit of uncertainty at the receiver position currently. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney both went down with injuries vs. the Bengals, and they have yet to return to practice. Head coach Andy Reid indicated that he was optimistic about both players, but it’s very possible that they’re operating at less than 100%. Mecole Hardman is also not expected to play, so Kelce should once again be looking at a sizable workload.

Looking for my breakdown on my Kenneth Gainwell and A.J. Brown picks? Check them out here in my Sleeper Over/Under breakdown!

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