Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.

I’ll start by mentioning that Week 9 was pretty heartbreaking, again. 

We went 4 for 5 and hit on HIGHERS from Taylor Heinicke (rushing), D’Andre Swift (attempts) and Dak Prescott (yards).

Then there were the Packers where our correlated Green Bay stack didn’t correlate as Jordan Love went HIGHER on his low total but Christian Watson (1-37) did not. Watson also got injured late on his only catch which didn’t help. 

Regardless, it was another strong showing and hopefully, the four picks that hit helped you out. 

Onto Week 10…

As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code LIFE to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 below!

Deshaun Watson HIGHER than 189.5 passing yards

The Browns are in a curious spot this week from a production standpoint. They like to run the ball (3rd-highest rush rate in the league) but face a Baltimore defense that has a stifling defensive line. 

The Ravens dispatched the Browns with ease in Week 4 (they held Cleveland to just 111 yards rushing) but that was with one-dimensional Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. This week, though, Cleveland will have Watson under center who is making his second start since returning from injury. 

While it hasn’t been pretty, Watson’s four starts this year (Bengals, Steelers, Titans, Cardinals) have seen him pass for 200+ yards three times – and his one muted performance (154 yards against the Bengals) came in monsoon-like conditions.

The weather for this week in Baltimore looks great (low wind) and Cleveland seems far more likely to use both the bigger body of David Njoku and the underrated Amari Cooper more than they did in Week 4 to keep the Ravens' defense off-balance.

We have Watson projected for 203.0 passing yards this week and while it may not be pretty the game flow (Browns are 6.0 point underdogs) and matchup against the Ravens make it likely we’ll see him sail over this low total at some point.

Amari Cooper HIGHER than 52.5 receiving yards 

One reason why I like targeting QBs with suppressed or low totals is because it often means they’ll have a WR with a suppressed or low total that we can correlate with them as well.

While it didn’t work out for us last week with Christian Watson, I have more confidence this week that if Watson hits for us, he’ll bring Amari Cooper along for the ride. 

Unlike the Packers' troubled star, Cooper has seen consistent usage all year. He’s got a team target share of 24% entering this week, has a massive 43% air yards share and has gone for over 60 yards in five of his last six games.

The 50.5 line looks almost disrepcteful from that standpoint and the Fantasy Life projections agree.

Our aggregate projections have Cooper set at a ghoulish 66.6 yards this week and I tend to agree that his prop is one of the better ones to attack with a HIGHER in Week 10. 

Let’s take our shot with the Browns' offense and correlate Cooper with our initial HIGHER on Watson and knock two picks out at once.

Will Levis HIGHER than 217.5 passing yards 

For our third and fourth picks, we’re going with two more HIGHERS and right back to another QB/WR correlation stack in the Titans.

You may not think “potent passing attack” when you think of Tennessee, but with Will Levis under center, the Titans have been more explosive.

Will Levis

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) celebrates on the field after defeating the Atlanta Falcons at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.

Levis survived the vaunted Pittsburgh pass rush last week putting up 262 yards in the loss and averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt in his assassin-like performance against the Falcons (238 yards). And considering how productive he’s been, I’m genuinely shocked we can get Levis’ HIGHER at just 212.5 yards this week against Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers have been one of the worst secondaries in the league over the last three weeks, allowing 9.3 yards per attempt over that span. They enter this game having just allowed 470 yards passing to rookie C.J. Stroud and have both of their starting corners (Jamal Dean and Carlton Davis) listed as questionable.

Levis’ status as a rookie with just two games under his belt seems to be keeping his props, and projections, somewhat muted, but I’m fully in line with trusting that he keeps things going in Week 10.

You can combine the Browns stack with Levis to 6x your buy-in and get your $100 deposit match by clicking below!

3-Pick Pick'em

DeAndre Hopkins HIGHER than 60.5 receiving yards

You probably guessed what was coming already.

Just like Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins' total this week looks well worth attacking given what he’s been able to accomplish in this Titans offense – and with Levis – to date.

While he was shutout in the second half last week, the former Texan still saw 11 targets against Pittsburgh and comes in with a dominant 28% team target share and 41% air yards share. 

DeAndre Hopkins

We could talk about Hopkins' talent for days — and how he’s the perfect fit for a young QB like Levis who isn’t afraid to throw downfield – but, in reality, targeting Levis/Hopkins is truly about the matchup.

Tampa Bay allows just 3.8 yards per carry against (10th-best in the league) and with a rookie QB on the other side, I doubt they will start dropping back and daring Derek Henry to beat them.

What makes them different from Pittsburgh in that regard is that Tampa Bay (21st in pressure rate, 19th in sacks) doesn’t bring pressure the way the Steelers do (6th in pressure rate, 9th in sacks) so Hopkins – who went for 128 yards against another low-pressure team in Atlanta two weeks ago – is far more likely to get better downfield opportunities. 

Look for another big game from DHop this week and for him and Levis to put a hurt on this failing Buccaneers defense.

You can combine the four previous picks to 10x your buy-in and get your $100 deposit match below!

4-Pick Pick'em

George Pickens HIGHER than 42.5 receiving yards 

I won’t lie, I debated this final pick for a long time before finally settling on Pickens.

If you’re thinking, “Geoff, you sell out, you're actually buying into the narrative that Pittsburgh will give a Diva WR more targets just because he threw a social media tantrum?”…you are at least partially correct. 

The fact of the matter is that I’ve learned not to bet against these kinds of spots over time.

Ultimately, Pickens plays for a players coach in Mike Tomlin who didn’t just defend Pickens’ behavior but almost went as far as to encourage it.

There are, of course, more subtle reasons to target a Pickens HIGHER in this spot (see below), but I do expect there will be a more concerted effort to get him the ball this week. 

For the record, Pickens has been a great target for HIGHERS when his prop gets this low. He went for 50+ yards in six of his last eight games of 2022, and has still gone for 50+ in 4 of 8 games in 2023 – that’s a solid 62% hit percentage of 50+ yards over his last 16 games. 

I did list some extra props below this week if you can’t stomach trusting him as a final piece, but Pickens gets the final nod for me this week and (hopefully) will deliver us a 5/5 week.

You can put all five picks together for a 20x payout and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you click the picks below to sign up!

5-Pick Pick'em

Other Week 10 Pick'em Plays

Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of range here are some extra Week 10 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots: 

  • Alvin Kamara LOWER 51.5 rushing yards (play to 49.5)
  • Lamar Jackson LOWER 209.5 passing yards (play to 207.5)
  • Chris Olave HIGHER 60.5 receiving yards (play to 62.5)
  • Mac Jones LOWER 226.5 passing yards (play to 222.5)
  • Brock Purdy HIGHER 245.5 passing yards (play to 249.5)
  • Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER 64.5 receiving yards (play to 67.5)
Underdog PIck'em Plays