Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 14.
Chig Okonkwo Over 33.5 receiving yards
The Titans were blown out of the water last week vs. the Eagles. Philadelphia managed just 10 points on offense, while the Eagles racked up 35. The Titans are not the type of team that is well-equipped to play from behind, especially after losing Treylon Burks to an injury. He was emerging as their clear top option in the passing attack, so there are going to be plenty of opportunities available for the rest of the roster.
Okonkwo is someone who should benefit. He hasn’t played a ton of snaps this season, but he has produced some big plays when on the field. He’s averaged an eye-popping 18.3 yards per reception, which is pretty insane for a tight end.
His role in the offense was already on the rise. He has at least five targets in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 51.5 receiving yards in those contests. He’s now posted at least 35 receiving yards in four of his past five outings, and his role should continue to grow with Burks sidelined.
The Jaguars also represent an excellent matchup. They rank 31st in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Jared Goff threw for 340 yards against them last week. That was only Goff’s third game with more than 277 passing yards, so Ryan Tannehill should have significantly more upside than usual.
Tyler Huntley Under 183.5 passing yards
Some folks are excited about Huntley getting the chance to start this week, but I’m here to dampen their enthusiasm. The only reason Huntley seems like a competent quarterback is that the standards for backups are incredibly low. If you can manage to get the team in and out of the huddle without falling on your face, people remember you for being better than you actually were.
That’s clearly the case with Huntley. His numbers as a passer last year were extremely unimpressive, averaging 5.1 adjusted yards per attempt while throwing more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three).
The Ravens also posted just a 1-3 record in Huntley’s four starts. Huntley does provide some fantasy appeal with his rushing upside, but that’s not going to be of any benefit for his passing prop.
Huntley’s worst performance last year came against the Steelers, and that’s who he’ll square off with on Sunday. He completed just 51.6% of his passes for 141 yards, and he managed two interceptions with zero touchdown passes.
With T.J. Watt back in the mix, the Steelers’ defense has gone right back to being an elite unit. They’ve allowed 17 points or fewer in three of their past four games, and opposing quarterbacks have managed 180 passing yards or less in all three contests. The lone exception was against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and I’d be very surprised if Huntley can match his output.
Zonovan Knight Over 33.5 rushing yards
The Jets will be a bit healthier at running back than they were last week, with Michael Carter expected to rejoin the fold. However, Knight isn’t going anywhere. He fared extremely well as the Jets’ lead back last week, turning 15 carries into 90 rushing yards. He also caught all five of his targets for 28 receiving yards. Overall, he’s averaged 5.5 yards per attempt and a 100% catch percentage, so he’s earned a role moving forward.
Knight will face a stiff test this Sunday against the Bills, who rank third in rush defense DVOA. However, the Bills' defense has been far from infallible this season.
They surrendered 208 rushing yards to the Packers in Week 8, and the Jets racked up 174 rushing yards in their first meeting this season. Carter and James Robinson split the work in that contest, but both backs finished with at least 12 rushing attempts and 48 rushing yards.
With Robinson basically out of the picture at this point – he was a healthy scratch the last time Carter was active – expect Knight and Carter to post a roughly 50/50 split against the Bills. That should be enough for Knight to hit the over on 33.5 yards.
DeShaun Watson Under 26.5 rushing yards
I think it’s safe to say that Watson’s first game with the Browns did not go as well as he would’ve hoped. He struggled mightily against a weak Texans’ defense, completing just 12 of 22 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. He added seven carries for 21 yards, but the Texans lost that game more than the Browns won it. He was directly responsible for handing them 14 points thanks to a pick-six and a fumble return touchdown.
Watson should improve moving forward, but I wouldn’t expect much progression as a runner. He has excellent athleticism for the position – he blazed a 4.66 40-yard dash at the 2017 combine – but he’s never been a frequent runner in the past. He averaged between 5.1 and 6.2 attempts per game in his four years in Houston, and he averaged 31.1 rushing yards per game.
The Bengals have also been one of the hardest teams for quarterbacks to run on this season. They allow an average of 13.4 rushing yards per game to the position, which is the fourth-best mark in the league. The Bengals’ defense ranks 11th in overall DVOA, so this doesn’t feel like a great spot for Watson to bounce back.
Tom Brady Over 37.5 pass attempts
While the rumors continue to fly regarding Brady’s love life, he continues to sling the ball with the vigor of a much younger man. The Buccaneers have not taken things easy on their 45-year-old quarterback this season, who leads the league with 524 passing attempts in 12 games. He’s coming off a whopping 54 pass attempts last week vs. the Saints, and he’s had at least 40 in nine of his past 10 games.
With that in mind, why is this number sitting at a very reasonable 37.5? Are they worried that the Buccaneers are going to lean on the run game against the 49ers? Tampa hasn’t been able to run the ball all season, and the 49ers rank second in the league in rush defense DVOA.
If the Buccaneers are going to find success in this matchup, it’s going to be on the arm of Brady. That might not happen – the 49ers are also excellent against the pass – but this number is simply too low.
