Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100. Just sign up using our link or by entering promo code LIFE.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 15.
Justin Jefferson Over 94.5 receiving yards
There is plenty of competition for the role of “best receiver in football,” but it’s hard not to back Jefferson at this point. He’s had a dominant season, leading the league with 1,500 receiving yards while averaging 115.4 yards per game. He’s on pace to lead the league in yards per touch for the second consecutive season, and he has a chance to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history.
Jefferson was at his best last week against the Lions, torching them for 223 yards on 11 catches, but he’s been devouring opponents all season. His 29.6% target share is the fifth-highest mark in the league, while his 42.6% air yards share ranks sixth.
Jefferson is in another fantastic spot for success Saturday versus the Colts. They’ve been average in pass defense overall this season, ranking 15th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve struggled mightily against No. 1 receivers. They drop to just 27th against No. 1 options, and while the Colts have a pair of strong cornerbacks in Isaiah Rodgers and Stephon Gilmore, no one in the league can completely slow down Jefferson.
Ultimately, Jefferson has recorded at least 98 receiving yards in nine of 13 games this season, and I see no reason why he can’t do it again.
J.K. Dobbins Over 53.5 rushing yards
Dobbins was activated from Injured Reserve in advance of the Ravens’ Week 14 matchup with the Steelers, and they wasted little time throwing him into the fire. He racked up a season-high 15 carries, which he converted into 120 yards and a touchdown.
Dobbins didn’t look like himself at the beginning of the year, but he is easily the Ravens’ best runner when healthy. He averaged a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie, but he was down to just 3.51 before landing on IR after Week 6. Last week’s mark of 8.0 yards per carry suggests he’s ready to roll moving forward.
The best part is that the Steelers are actually a pretty good team against the run. They rank 11th in rush defense DVOA, but the Ravens still gashed them for 215 rushing yards last week. If they can do that against Pittsburgh, they should have no problems taking advantage of the Browns’ putrid run defense. They rank just 30th in rush defense DVOA, and the Ravens ran for 160 yards against them in their first meeting this season.
Dobbins is still not going to be the Ravens’ bell-cow back – he had 39% of the carries last week, Gus Edwards had 34% – but it would not be surprising if the gap is a bit wider in Week 15. Even if it isn’t, Dobbins is talented enough to hit the over on 53.5 yards with less than a dozen carries.
Rachaad White Under 26.5 receiving yards
It has been a disastrous year for the Buccaneers. Tom Brady has gotten most of the heat, but the rest of this lineup hasn’t performed the same way that they have in previous seasons.
That includes Leonard Fournette. Lombardi Lenny has averaged a paltry 3.5 yards per carry this season after averaging a career-best 4.5 yards per attempt last year. As a result, he’s started to lose some playing time to White.
White was the Buccaneers’ third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he stands out as a solid prospect. He grades out well from an athletic standpoint, ranking in the 82nd percentile or better in 40-yard dash time, Speed Score, and Burst Score. White was also a tremendous pass-catcher in college, with his 18.9% target share ranking in the 98th percentile. Player Profiler lists his closest comparable as David Johnson, and if you’ve been playing fantasy for more than a few years, you know that’s high praise.
Unfortunately, the team does not seem particularly interested in utilizing White as a pass-catcher. He had just a 36% route participation last week, while Fournette was at 52%. He also played on just 31% of the long-yardage situations.
It seems like the Buccaneers are firmly committed to a committee at this point, with White handling the rushing responsibilities and Fournette playing in passing situations. That makes White a fade as a receiver against the Bengals.
D’Onta Foreman Under 70.5 rushing yards
Don’t look now, but the Panthers are making a push for the postseason. They would be basically dead if they played in any decision but the NFC South, but at 5-8, they’re currently just one game behind the division-leading Buccaneers. They’ve already beat the Buccaneers once this season, and they face them again in Week 17. As crazy as it sounds, the Panthers control their own destiny as far as making the playoffs.
The biggest reason for the Panthers’ recent success has been their ground game. They’ve won three of their past four contests, and they’ve run for at least 185 yards in all three of them. That said, those wins came against the Falcons, Broncos, and Seahawks. The Falcons and Seahawks both rank in the bottom seven in terms of rush defense DVOA, while the Broncos are the Broncos. I wouldn’t trust Denver to book a dinner reservation at this point.
This week’s matchup against the Steelers is going to represent a stiff step up in weight class. The last time the Panthers played a competent run defense, the Ravens limited them to just 36 total rushing yards.
That could spell trouble for Foreman’s rushing numbers. He has not handled a bell-cow workload in recent weeks, and he handled just 48% of the team’s rushing attempts last week. That doesn’t matter when your team is rushing for more than 200 yards, but it could make a world of difference in tougher matchups. This seems like a nice opportunity to sell high.
Austin Ekeler Over 42.5 rushing yards
The Chargers secured a big win over the Dolphins last week, putting them right back in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. They’re tied with the Patriots and Jets at 7-6, and while they’re currently on the outside looking in, they still have four weeks to move up a spot or two.
The best news for the Chargers is that they’re finally getting healthy. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were both in the lineup last week for one of the first times all season. Their pass-catchers getting healthier is a phenomenal development for Justin Herbert, who has posted subpar efficiency numbers for most of the year.
The Chargers’ getting healthier at receiver has also impacted Ekeler. He’s been a monster catching passes out of the backfield this year, but he’s posted a target share of 17% and 14% in back-to-back weeks. His reduced role as a receiver has led to more work as a runner, with Ekeler handling 15 carries against the Dolphins in Week 14. That was just the third time all year that Ekeler had at least 15 carries in a game.
The Titans are a tough matchup for running backs, but this seems like a great opportunity to buy-low Ekeler’s rushing ability.
