Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 16.
Deshaun Watson Under 31.5 rushing yards
Watson has now started three games for the Browns, and the early results have not been impressive. The team has managed 13 points or less in their past two contests, and their 27-point performance against the Texans was extremely fluky. The offense managed just six points of their own, but the defense and special teams combined for three touchdowns.
Watson’s individual numbers have also been unimpressive. He posted his best game from an efficiency standpoint last week, but he still averaged just 6.46 adjusted yards per attempt. Watson averaged 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt in his final season with the Texans, so he has not been the same player to start his tenure with his new team.
It’s not surprising that Watson has had to shake some rust off, so he has leaned on his legs a bit more than usual. He’s averaged 6.3 rushing attempts through his first three outings, which would represent a new career high. However, he has not been particularly efficient as a runner, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry. He did rack up 33 rushing yards against the Bengals in Week 14, but he’s been at 22 yards or fewer in his other two contests.
Ultimately, I’m expecting Watson’s rushing frequency to decrease as he gets more comfortable as a passer. The Saints are a solid matchup for rushing quarterbacks, but they still allow an average of just 25.2 yards per game to the position. Ultimately, I like the under in this spot.
Mac Jones Under 225.5 passing yards
How in the world do the Patriots rebound from last week’s loss? That was one of the stupidest ways that a football game has ever been decided, leaving fans, analysts, and everyone in between scratching their heads:
Now, they’ll have to try and save their season against one of the best teams in football. They’re taking on the Bengals in Week 16, who have rattled off six consecutive wins. If the Patriots lose that contest, their playoff odds will dip to just eight percent.
The Bengals' high-flying aerial attack gets most of the attention, but don’t sleep on their defense. They rank 11th in pass defense DVOA, and they held Patrick Mahomes to just 223 passing yards back in Week 13.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that Jones is not Mahomes. He had the easiest possible matchup last week against the Raiders – they entered the week dead last in pass defense DVOA – and Jones responded by completing 41.9% of his passes for 112 yards. I’m not sure if it’s purely due to Matt Patricia, but Jones has regressed badly in his sophomore season.
With Jones struggling, don’t be surprised if the Patriots lean on the run game in this spot. Jones has hit the over on this number in less than half of his starts, so this seems like a nice opportunity to fade him.
Adam Thielen Under 50.5 receiving yards
Thielen has given the Vikings some solid production throughout the years. He racked up at least 1,276 receiving yards in 2017 and 2018, and he’s had double-digit touchdowns in each of the past two years. He’s obviously lost some work to Justin Jefferson in recent seasons, but he remains a reliable No. 2 option.
However, we have started to see a bit of a shift in the team’s passing attack. K.J. Osborn’s role continues to grow, posting an 85% route participation and a 29% target share in Week 15. Those additional targets are going to have to come from somewhere, and they’re definitely not coming from Jefferson.
That leaves Thielen as the clear loser in the Vikings’ pecking order. Kirk Cousins threw the ball a whopping 54 times last week, yet Thielen still saw just four targets. Cousins had 460 passing yards, yet only 41 of them went to Thielen. Ultimately, he finished with a target share of just eight percent, and he was targeted on only seven percent of his routes run.
It’s possible that was a one-week blip, but there’s no denying that Osborn has looked impressive. It should surprise no one if his role continues to grow, and the Vikings are not going to throw the ball 54 times every week.
With that in mind, Thielen’s receiving prop of 50.5 yards feels a bit high. He’s averaged just 49.0 yards per game this season, and he’s been at 49 yards or less in four of his past six games.
DK Metcalf Over 78.5 receiving yards
I am all in on the Seahawks’ passing attack in Week 16. They’re taking on the Chiefs, which is one of the best possible matchups. The Chiefs possess the perfect combination of a terrible defense and a potent offense. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and opposing teams have to throw for four full quarters to try to keep up with their offense.
The Seahawks have fallen off a bit recently, losing four of their past five games, but they remain a dynamic passing offense. They rank fifth in passing DVOA, and they’ve averaged the ninth-most passing yards per game. Geno Smith has done more than just hold his own as the team’s starter, actually outplaying his predecessor Russell Wilson.
Still, the team’s biggest strength is their receivers. The combination of Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is one of the best one-two punches in the league, and both players have split the workload pretty evenly this year. Metcalf has a slight edge, but together they account for more than 50% of the team’s targets and nearly 70% of their air yards.
However, Lockett suffered an injury in the team’s last contest, leaving Metcalf as the clear alpha in an elite spot. Metcalf has already averaged more than 10 targets over his past five games, and that number should increase with his running mate sidelined. I’ll take my chances with him against KC.
Dec 4, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs the ball against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick (6) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Desmond Ridder Under 182.5 total yards
This number feels almost comically low for a quarterback in the year 2022. This is such a low bar for a QB to clear when combining his passing and rushing yards, and there aren’t many quarterbacks in football where it would be worth considering the under.
However, this feels like an exception. Ridder made the first start of his career last week against the Saints, and it was pretty much a disaster. He completed just 50% of his passes for 97 yards, and he added only 38 yards with his legs. He finished with a Pro Football Focus grade of just 43.4, which would be easily the worst full-season mark for any passer in football.
This game versus the Panthers also figures to be played at a lightning pace. These two teams love to run the football. The Falcons rank 31st in the league in pass rate over expectation, while the Panthers have run the ball at the highest frequency over their past three games. That means the clock should be moving constantly in this matchup, which is going to result in minimal possessions for both squads. With Ridder struggling so badly last week, there are more than enough reasons to support the under in this spot.
