Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.

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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 17.


Alvin Kamara Under 62.5 rushing yards

Kamara was once mentioned in the same breath as some of the best running backs in football. He was an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he also was one of the best in the league at finding the paint.

Unfortunately, nothing has gone right for Kamara this season. The team has seemingly gone away from using him as a pass-catcher, opting instead to feed him traditional rushing attempts. That simply hasn’t worked. Kamara is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season, which is nearly a full yard lower than it was in his prime.

Without that pass-catching role, Kamara has lost his status as a bell-cow running back. He has only 47% of the team’s carries this season, including just 51% last week versus the Browns. Part of that was due to Taysom Hill being used at quarterback in inclement conditions, but the fact remains that it has largely been a disastrous season for the former top back. He’s had 62 yards or fewer in nine of 13 games, and it’s hard to imagine things getting much better against the Eagles. Philly’s had their issues stopping the run this season, but they’re favored by nearly a touchdown in this contest. If they can grab control of this contest, the Saints could be forced to throw the ball much more than they did last week.


George Kittle Over 51.5 receiving yards

I am buying the Kittle resurgence in a big way. Kittle has always been one of the most talented tight ends in football, he’s just been stuck in an awful situation. The 49ers don’t need to pass the ball much given their dominant defense, and Kittle has to share the field with plenty of other elite talents. Guys like Christian McCaffreyDeebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk also need their touches, and Kittle is such a good blocker that he’s willing to sacrifice for the good of the team.

However, Samuel is currently out with an injury, and Kittle has been absolutely balling in his absence. He’s increased his target share to 26.1% over the past three weeks, which is easily the top mark on the squad. He also has nearly 32% of the team’s air yards over that stretch, so he’s a viable big play threat as well.

Kittle has made the most of his opportunities in the past two weeks, turning 13 targets into 10 catches, 213 yards, and four touchdowns. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but we have plenty of room for regression with the current number set at just 51.5 receiving yards.

Kittle also draws one of the best possible matchups against the Raiders. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and while Samuel returned to practice on a limited basis Thursday, the beat reporters seem pessimistic about his chances of returning to the lineup. As long as Deebo is out, Kittle should be able to post another strong performance.


Cam Akers Over 69.5 rushing yards

I have to commend the Rams for their fight in recent weeks. I personally would’ve packed things in a long time ago, but the team has actually won two of their past three games. They're still on pace to finish with the worst full-season record for any defending Super Bowl champion, but they clearly haven’t given up.

Akers has been one of the lone bright spots in what has otherwise been a dismal year. Akers started the season in the doghouse, and he was even sent home at one point. The team was reportedly looking to get rid of him, but he has worked his way back into Sean McVay’s good graces. The team actually ended up releasing Darrell Henderson, so Akers has resumed his role as the team’s top running back.

Akers has taken full advantage of that role recently, averaging 5.23 yards per carry over his past two games. That includes a massive performance against the Broncos last week, finishing with 118 yards and three touchdowns.

I wouldn’t expect a similar game script this week – the Rams won that contest by 37 points – but Akers should continue to find some success on the ground. The Chargers have been very exploitable on the ground this season, ranking just 25th in DVOA.



James Conner Over 96.5 rushing + receiving yards

Conner is going to need a month-long ice bath after the season is over. Even though the Cardinals are well out of contention, the team has not hesitated to give Conner a monster workload in recent weeks. He’s played on at least 91% of the team’s offensive snaps in five of the past six weeks, which is basically unheard of for a running back.

Conner has also dominated the backfield touches in that stretch. Over his past six games, he’s averaged 17.7 rushing attempts and 5.2 targets per game, making him one of the busiest backs in football. He’s also been productive, averaging more than 100 scrimmage yards per contest while scoring seven total touchdowns.

I don’t see why anything would change for the Cardinals in Week 17, and Conner draws an excellent matchup versus the Falcons. They rank 30th in defensive DVOA, and they’ve struggled against the pass and the run. One way or another, expect Conner to make an impact against Atlanta.


Aaron Rodgers Under 237.5 passing yards

The Packers have somehow come back from the dead, and they have everything to play for against the Vikings in Week 17. They’re still underdogs to make the postseason, but the fact that they’re even in this position is shocking. They lost seven of eight games earlier this season, but three straight wins have put them back in contention. If they can win their final two contests – a big if – their playoff odds would improve to 89%. That means they’d still need a bit of help, but two straight wins will likely send the Packers to the playoffs for the fourth straight year.

The offense has been the biggest reason for their turnaround, but it hasn’t been due to Rodgers. The team has leaned on their running duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, a combo which ranks third in the league in rushing DVOA.

Even in his prime, Rodgers was known more for his efficiency than for putting up gaudy yardage totals. He’s only averaged more than 281.8 yards per game in one of his 18 seasons, which is pretty shocking. To put that in perspective, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for at least 284.6 passing yards every year as a starter.

Rodgers’ passing output has dipped to just 222.1 yards per game this season, and I wouldn’t expect a huge uptick facing the Vikings. Minnesota has struggled mightily against the run this season, so Green Bay should be able to continue leaning on Jones and Dillon. The Packers are also favored in this contest, so they’re not expected to fall into a pass-heavy game script.

If you play Over/Under on Sleeper, check out my picks here!