Every week we’ll go through the Underdog pick’em lines and try to put together a selection of winners using our wit, guile and mostly the awesome Fantasy Life weekly projections that you can find, FOR FREE, on our site.
If you already know lots about Underdog and are a grizzled veteran of the pick’em streets, please bypass this next part and get right to the picks – which I want you to critique vehemently before ultimately tailing.
However, if you’re new to Underdog and are wondering what the heck a pick’em is, I’ve got a little primer for you below.
What is a Pick’em?
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best-ball tournaments and their snake draft format…
…but did you know they also offer single-player daily fantasy pick ‘em contests?
These work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100 plus a mystery Pick'em special. Just sign up using our link or by entering promo code LIFE below:
Now, let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season…
Anthony Richardson under 198.5 passing yards
The Fantasy Life projection on Richardson this week has him set around 170.0 passing yards and potentially in for a very low-volume day.
The Texans held up well in Week 1 against a much more versatile and explosive receiving core and limited another rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson to well under 200 yards.
Richardson also had the highest rate of designed runs called of any QB in week 1 at 27%, which is likely working to keep his projection low this week as well.
Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
He did manage to go over this total in week 1 (223-1-1), but it wasn’t by much, and he will likely be in a less explosive game environment in his second start, with the Total for HOU/IND set at 39.0.
There is always the possibility Richardson lands a 60+ yard TD – or some kind of big play – to help him go higher, but this total is still big enough to withstand a long pass or two and should be helped by slower game play and less scoring than the Colts game saw last week.
Play down to 195.5
Kylen Granson under 26.5 receiving yards
Granson (4-39) popped up for the Colts in a few games last season. But his work has always been sporadic, and he’s tended to trade big weeks off and on with Mo Allie-Cox, who still played on 42% of the snaps last week.
Obviously, game flow last week worked in favor of a bigger passing day – with Richardson attempting 37 passes and Granson going for 39 yards – but this game feels likely to be far less swingy and potentially dictate more running from the Colts, who are also set to have RB Zack Moss back for this game.
HC DeMeco Ryans’ defenses have also tended to be very tough to throw against down the middle, and they limited a good pass-catching TE in Isaiah Likely to just one catch and 4 yards last week.
Given that we started out the card this week with a Richardson under, adding in an under on a secondary receiver like Granson provides some solid correlation and a decent possibility that we hit “two props at once” – if our prediction about a low volume passing day for the Colts comes to fruition.
Play down to: 24.5 receiving yards
Nico Collins over 46.5 receiving yards
One of the bigger surprises from last week was how much the Texans decided to drop back CJ Stroud in his first game as a pro. Stroud threw the ball 44 times on 54 dropbacks in week one, which allowed for some decent days from some of his WRs.
Nico Collins (6-80) was one of the players who benefitted the most. He ended the day with 80 yards and 11 targets, all while accumulating 64% of the total air yards for the Texans. That last part is extremely encouraging as it was clear that Collins catches this season won’t be going for less than 10 yards very often. Even better for Collins’ outlook this week is the fact that the Texans placed WR Noah Brown (76% route participation rate in week 1) on IR, opening up even more potential opportunities.
While his prop total is slightly up from last week, it’s possible that in a few weeks’ time, we see these sub-50-yard high/lowers on Collins as laughable, given the lack of competition he has right now for downfield work.
Play up to 48.5
Rhamondre Stevenson over 50.5 rushing yards
The Patriots' offense uncorked 54 throws in Week 1 against Philadelphia, but it wouldn’t be overly shocking to see them dial it back a bit against a less talented rush defense in Miami.
The Dolphins allowed the second most yards per carry against metric in week 1, ceding 5.9 yards per carry and 208 yards total to the Chargers RBs.
Stevenson did split work with Ezekiel Elliott in Week 1, but the split isn’t a death sentence by any means.
Steveson still took 60% of the rush attempts and played on over 74% of the snaps. While Elliott may hurt some people for fantasy by taking the odd catch or stealing a TD, for our rushing prop Stevenson is still looking like the primary early-down and mid-field back to target for New England.
We have him projected to the higher side on his current 50.5 rushing total, with a 7-8 yard edge – making his higher a good add to our five-legger this week.
Play to: 54.5
Bijan Robinson over 17.5 receiving yards
The Falcons RBs are another backfield that is in a great spot this week. Green Bay may have come out with a win over the Bears, but they were getting it handed to them in both the passing game – and on the ground to an extent – by the Bears RBs.
Chicago RBs went for 11 catches and 80 yards (on 16 targets) last week as the Bears avoided throwing at Green Bay’s elite corners and instead chose to work the short passing game over and over.
Robinson posted an elite 77% route participation rate in week one and showcased elite after-the-catch upside on his short TD catch. While I debated going over on Robinson’s rush yards or rush/receiving yards, the low receiving yard total made this the most appealing, given the 20+ yard projection we have for him at Fantasy Life this week.
Play to: 19.5 rec. yards / or play over 77.5 rush + rec yards
You can pair all five of these selections together for a 10x payout on Underdog Fantasy!
Simply click below to sign up (and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 PLUS a mystery Pick'em special) and start playing today!
