Week 2 was solid.
We came within 4.0 Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards of nailing all five of the picks.
If you were able to mix and match the four winners on Underdog pick’em hopefully you came out with some nice winning tickets.
While being perfect is the goal, it’s never a bad idea to leave yourself room for improvement either, and we’ll try again in Week 3 to nail all five picks.
As always, we’ll be guided by the Fantasy Life weekly projections along with a lot of the other awesome tools on the site – such as the Utilization Report that helps us identify potential breakout (or regression) candidates before they happen.
If you already know lots about Underdog and are a grizzled veteran of the pick’em streets, please bypass this next part and get right to the picks – which I want you to critique vehemently before ultimately tailing.
However, if you’re new to Underdog and are wondering what the heck a pick’em is, I’ve got a little primer for you below.
What is a Pick’em
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best-ball tournaments and their snake draft format…
…but did you know they also offer single-player daily fantasy pick‘em contests?
These work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100 plus a mystery Pick'em special. Just sign up by entering promo code LIFE below:
Now, let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season…
Desmond Ridder over 195.5 passing yards
The Falcons take on the Lions this week and, just like we did with the Colts last week, I like targeting their passing offense for multiple correlated plays. Unlike last week, though, I like the highers.
Desmond Ridder may not be throwing a whole ton but when he has dropped back to pass he hasn’t been all that bad. Through two weeks he has a 68% completion rate and a yards per attempt metric of 7.0, which is far better than what he produced in four starts last year.
Ridder’s playing well, but going with the higher play on his yardage total really comes down to matchup.
Detroit seems likely to operate as a classic funnel to the pass scheme most weeks and is coming off a game where they allowed 8.0 yards per attempt to Geno Smith – while ceding just 3.3 yards per carry.
Detroit’s offense also remains a top-10 unit (even with a few injuries) and the overall lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball (for both sides) seems likely to push this game into shootout territory.
It’s possible that Atlanta’s rushing attack is just too potent for the Lions to stop, but if they do stop it, Ridder will have a great chance of sailing over this sub-200 total before the game’s end.
Play to: 202.5
Kyle Pitts over 34.5 receiving yards
As mentioned above, starting with a Ridder higher play means we most certainly should be looking to correlate that pick with a higher on one of his primary receivers as well.
Despite the overwhelming frustration he causes fantasy owners on a weekly basis, Kyle Pitts remains a supreme talent who could blast well over his 33.5 total on just a couple of targets – as he did in Week 1 when he posted 44 yards on just two catches.
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) is hit by Green Bay Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas (29) after making a catch during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
There are obvious concerns about Pitts’ usage, as the third-year TE was somehow out-targeted last week by Jonnu Smith – who some of you may just be finding out is actually on the Falcons. Despite losing some looks to the veteran, it’s pretty clear when we look at Pitts’ usage stats from the Seahawks game that he remains a primary part of Atlanta’s offense.
Pitts had a 91% route participation rate in Week 2 and while his air yards went down drastically, he still managed a double-digit target share.
The matchup with Detroit this week should also help. The Lions have allowed 87.5 yards per game to opposing TEs (the most in the league) and will be without starting S CJ Gardner-Johnson.
With the Lions offense likely forcing the Falcons into more dropbacks than usual, Pitts should benefit and his awesome after-the-catch ability gives us another out if he’s somehow limited to just a few catches once again.
Play to: 35.5
Bijan Robinson under 67.5 rushing yards
If we like the Falcons passing game to potentially be winners this week against Detroit (in the stat department at least), then the other logical result from that outcome is that anyone involved in the rushing game for Atlanta may actually be a slight loser.
Rookie Bijan Robinson was in our picks last week, and promptly smashed his 17.5 receiving prop out of the water to the high side. He makes the picks again in Week 3, but this time as a rusher, and a play to the lower.
While fading an explosive player like Robinson is always scary, the Lions defense has been great at defending against RBs, and the run in general, going back to late last season.
Starting in Week 13 of 2022, only one team has managed to have an RB go for more than 55 yards on the ground against Detroit (the Panthers in Week 16). This season alone they’ve held both of the lead RBs they've faced to well under 50 yards and ceded just 3.6 yards per carry.
Robinson may still break the game open through the air, but with his receiving prop now 7.0+ yards higher than it was last week, I’d rather try to correlate him with our other Atlanta plays by taking him on a rushing under.
He’s projected for just 59.5 rush yards on Fantasy Life this week and seems likely to have a tougher go of it in Week 3 against Detroit’s emerging rush defense.
Play to: 67.5
Mark Andrews over 53.5 receiving yards
Since all of your higher/lower plays can’t be from the same team, we’ll include a couple of one-off targets to help tie things together and fill out our pick’em cards.
We’ll start with Mark Andrews, who returned to action last week and promptly put everyone who doubted he’d remain the focal point of this Ravens passing game in 2023, on notice.
Andrews had an 85% route participation rate in his first game back and, more importantly, took a 24% team target share while producing a 5-45-1 line on eight targets.
His lower aDOT and air yards are slightly concerning, but a lot of his Week 2 production (or lack thereof) can also be attributed to the opponent and a Bengals defense that is great at limiting yards after the catch.
The Colts are a much different beast, though, especially when it comes to defending the passing game and the TE position in general.
Indianapolis comes into this week with the fifth-worst yards per attempt mark against on defense and has allowed an average of 55.0 yards per game to opposing TEs.
Andrews isn’t exactly your normal TE either.
He went over this 52.5 mark in 13 of 17 games played in 2021 and as mentioned previously, led the Ravens in target share and overall targets in his first game back.
With a far better opponent, his outlook is rosy enough to include as a higher play in a game where the Ravens battered defense also provides some extra shootout potential.
Play to: 54.5
Javonte Williams over 49.5 rushing yards
Williams is still working his way back from major reconstruction surgery on his knee and there was some thought the Broncos may ease him back into things and potentially limit his usage early.
While he’s only averaged 12.5 carries per game through two weeks it's an encouraging sign that Sean Payton clearly views him as the main early down back, given he took 12 of the potential 15 RB carries the team dished out last week.
The efficiency against Washington dipped just a touch for Williams but this week against Miami should be a great spot for him to post some real numbers.
he Dolphins have been gashed up front thus far, allowing 4.9 yards per carry against and the third most rushing yards to the RB position, overall.
The weather this week could also help Williams. Potential rain in the forecast could certainly make this a slower-paced, run-heavy matchup where Williams would likely be a favorite to exceed his seasonal average of carries.
Currently, he’s projected for 58.1 rush yards on Fantasy Life in Week 3, giving us a solid projected edge to take the higher on his 50.5 total on Underdog.
If the weather stays poor you might even look to pair a Williams over with an under on a Russell Wilson passing total which would give you two correlated plays to work with from this game.
Play to: 52.5
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