Week 4 was another close but no cigar kind of event. We went 3 for 5 on the props for Week 4, nailing the highers on Stafford, Moss and Kendrick Bourne, but missing the highers on Mac Jones and Tutu Atwell.
Jones was in a pass-friendly game environment before getting pulled so that one really hurt as all he needed to do was finish the game to get to his over. Atwell not going over despite Stafford throwing for 300+ yards was frustrating as well.
Still, the process was strong and eventually we’ll string together a five/five clip, hopefully before 2024 hits. This week we’ll once again be employing the same kind of correlation stacks that have gotten us close to the perfect week and targeting one particular game that seems to have good back and forth kind of potential.
If you already know lots about Underdog and are a grizzled veteran of the pick’em streets, please bypass this next part and get right to the picks – which I want you to critique vehemently before ultimately tailing.
However, if you’re new to Underdog and are wondering what the heck a pick’em is, I’ve got a little primer for you below.
What is a Pick’em
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best-ball tournaments and their snake draft format…
…but did you know they also offer single-player daily fantasy pick ‘em contests?
These work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100 plus a mystery Pick'em special. Sign up by entering promo code LIFE below:
Now, let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season…
Joe Burrow HIGHER than 249.5 passing yards
We’ll again start off cards this week with a QB/WR passing stack that will correlate multiple Underdog pick’em plays from the same game – a game in ARZ/CIN that has the potential for some good back and forth action.
Joe Burrow enters this week with his doubters currently being up more than they have been at any point in his career to date. It has an admittedly tough scene for Burrow thus far in 2023, who comes into Week 5 ranked dead last in yards per pass attempt.
While it is possible Burrow has forgotten how to play football, I prefer the contrarian angle of this story, that Burrow is just a perennial slow starter whose preparation has once again been hampered by a lingering pre-season injury – an injury he says is better this week than it has been all year.
If that’s the case, and Burrow does have better mobility this week, it could be a long day for the Cardinals secondary. They already enter the week having allowed the 10th-most passing yards on the season and are 30th in overall defensive DVOA, against the pass.
Against the 49ers last week they were so bad in coverage that Purdy finished the day one completion shy of a perfect game, going 20-21 for 283 yards and a TD.
An over on Burrow obviously comes with a little risk given how poorly he’s played to date, but with the Cardinals offense moving the ball well on the ground (see below) this game does have good shootout potential.
Ultimately, I like siding with that view as it allows us to stack multiple highers on potentially undervalued members of the Bengals’ offense, and build out our five-way card around this offensively appealing game.
Play to 255.5
Ja’Marr Chase HIGHER than 80.5 receiving yards
You probably knew this was coming after reading the first prop. If we are going higher on Joe Burrow this week you are right in thinking we best be taking a higher on Ja’Marr Chase alongside him too. Of the two plays I objectively like Chase’s higher more than Burrow’s this week – although it is very likely that if one goes over, they both go over for the week.
Chase has still been productive even with his QB at less than 100%, having caught 19 of his last 24 targets and producing an average of 107.0 receiving yards over his last two games. That production alone makes him an interesting higher target this week – with his yardage prop in the low 80’s – but it’s the matchup that really puts this one into perspective.
he Cardinals have now allowed at least one WR to go for over 80 receiving yards in each of their last three games, a streak that includes Giants’ rookie Jalin Hyatt going for 89 yards against them on just two targets in Week 2.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) celebrates a touchdown catch in the second quarter during a Week 14 NFL game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Nfl Cleveland Browns At Cincinnati Bengals Dec 11 0227
Last week, Arizona’s secondary got exposed even further by a real offense in San Francisco whose leading WR, Brandon Aiyuk, managed an obscene 24.7 yards per catch against the Cardinals, going for 149 yards on 6.0 receptions.
Chase may have efficiency issues but his usage trumps even that of even Aiyuk and he may see an even bigger share of targets this week if Tee Higgins (abdomen – questionable) can’t play. We have Chase projected for a big week with an aggregate projection of 96.3 receiving yards on Fantasy Life, making him a strong higher for Underdog pick’em cards in Week 5.
Play to 84.5
James Conner HIGHER than 58.5 yards
Let’s stick with this game for one more play. Much like last week when we brought back Zack Moss (18 car. 70 yards) on our Rams passing stack, who hit for a higher against the weaker Rams rush defense, we can do the same this week with James Conner – who will be up against an underwhelming Bengals rush defense.
Cincinnati has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs on the year and are third last in yards per carry against (5.1) as a defense. Moreso, for all their faults, the Cardinals are actually quite good at running the ball.
Conner has averaged 5.2 yards per carry on the year and, as a team, the Cardinals have been one of the best at creating yards before contact – a metric which speaks to how good their offensive line has been in the run game.
Conner has a great matchup, a total he’s gone over on in three of four games this season and a 65.9 yard aggregate projection over on fantasy life for the week as well.
His higher looks well worth attacking and makes plenty of sense to play along Burrow/Chase highers for a three-way game stack card as well.
Play to 62.5
Dallas Goedert HIGHER than 34.5 receiving yards
Goedert has had a slow start to the season but this week looks like a good time to buy back in on him for a higher. Usage-wise, there is really nothing wrong with Goedert. He’s still an every-down player with a 92% route rate and 17% target share on the season.
He’s been a little unlucky to date from a production standpoint as well, as other players on the Eagles have been seemingly been taking turns at creating explosive plays, leaving him little in the way for opportunities in the middle of the field. This week, though, could easily be his turn for a breakout.
The Rams have a thin defense to begin with and haven't been great against opposing TEs, allowing the 11th most yards to the position on the year. Further, while Goedert’s yardage O/U’s for the season have been holding steady in the 41.5 to 36.5 yard range, we finally have a solid dip to buy this week as his aggregate projection on Fantasy Life is set at 39.0 – but his yardage totals for Week 5 have now dropped to 33.5 on Underdog.
Given his overall after-the-catch ability, he makes for a good one-off play off this lower total, especially given the matchup which could favor slightly increased targeting as well.
Play to 35.5
Dalton Kincaid HIGHER than 4.0 targets
I was initially looking for a Dalton Kincaid reception prop to add in for this week but Underdog has started giving us lines on total player targets (target meaning: the number of times a pass is directed at a player – does not have to catch to count) and honestly I like using him in this category better.
The Jaguars have some solid young corners, but are lacking as a coverage unit as a whole. They have been a great matchup for opposing TEs over the last couple of seasons, and it seems like the entire league now knows this. To date, opposing QBs have directed 38 targets towards the TE position when playing Jacksonville, which is the second most targets any team has allowed to the TE position through four weeks.
From a fantasy perspective, you’re likely perturbed about Kincaid’s low aDOT and lack of downfield receptions, but his usage has remained steady (13 targets over his last three games). There is also likely to be a shift towards the Bills featuring Kincaid eventually, just given how talented he is as a pass-catcher, and the matchup this week may force Josh Allen’s hand in that regard.
We have Kincaid projected for 4.5 targets this week in our aggregate projections making this flat 4.0 total one to target. While a push isn’t the goal, the fact we have a 0.5 cushion off our projections, and the fact Kincaid has gone over this total in two of his last three games, make it worth using this week on Underdog cards.
Play to 4.0
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