Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.
If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way, Pick’em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings.
Thus far, we have yet to hit a 5-0 week, but have come close numerous times. Week 5 yielded another 3/5 week with us hitting overs on Joe Burrow, Dallas Goedert and Ja’Marr Chase.
We got robbed of another Higher hitting by a James Conner injury (who was well on his way to going over on his yardage before he left the game) and also missed out on the Dalton Kincaid Higher (4.0 targets), as the Bills mysteriously cut his snaps/targets against the Jaguars.
The correlation strategies have been working well. We just need a little luck to flow our way. The Week 6 plays are below, let’s run hot…Good Luck!
What is a Pick’em?
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best-ball tournaments and their snake draft format…
…but did you know they also offer single-player daily fantasy pick ‘em contests?
These work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100 plus a mystery Pick'em special. Sign up by entering promo code LIFE below:
Now, let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season…
Bryce Young higher than 221.5 passing yards
As tough of a start as it has been for Young there have been signs of improvement from a production standpoint.
He’s averaged over 6.0 yards per attempt in his last two games (vast improvement over the sub-5.0 yards from Week 1 and 2) and against a weaker passing defense in Minnesota (Week 4), was able to complete 78% of his passes.
The fact he now has two solid after-the-catch receivers in D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo fully healthy should help his overall production upside going forward as well.
Ultimately, regardless of what you think of Young’s recent work, what this boils down to is an extremely ideal setup.
The Panthers are 13.5-point underdogs and face a Dolphins defense that is 25th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in yards per pass attempt against.
Despite what our Aggregate projections think, the upside here is pretty tremendous, so much so that this low 200-yard line could get blown out of the water early in the 3rd quarter if Carolina gets into a heavy deficit (and they likely will).
On top of that, using Young means we can correlate his Higher, with a Higher from one of his receivers (see below), and potentially knock out two legs of our 5-way pick’em in one go.
- Play to: 222.5
- Aggregate Projection: 210.6
Zach Wilson higher than 11.5 rushing yards
Our aggregate projections on Fantasy Life have Wilson going for 16.9 rushing yards making this a nice edge to attack.
While you don’t primarily think of Wilson as a runner, like so many other young QBs in the league, he’s extremely mobile and comes in averaging 19.25 rush yards over his last four games.
Wilson’s scramble rate is slightly up this year (6% vs 5% last year) and he has a 5% designed rush rate on the year as well.
When you add in the fact he’s facing a team that brings lots of pressure in the Eagles – who allowed the fourth most rush yards to opposing QBs last year – this feels like a great spot for Wilson to potentially use his legs to help alleviate some of that pressure.
- Play to: 13.5
- Aggregate Projection: 16.9
You can tail the previous two picks in a two-way Pick'em that allows you to 3x your money by clicking below!
Jonathan Mingo higher than 30.5 receiving yards
It looked like the Panthers may have been ready to cut Mingo’s work a little in Week 5, after they gave second-year WR Terrace Marshall 10 targets in Week 4. However, once Mingo was healthy he was inserted directly back into an everydown role and promptly produced the best line of his career, posting 5-48 on seven targets against Detroit.
Mingo’s been slow to get going but he was an elite yac producer in college and has a 74% snap share on the season as well. He’s also had just a 60% catchable ball rate, which should normalize (get better) as the season wears on.
Our aggregate projections on Fantasy Life have Mingo set at 32.5 yards for the week giving us a decent edge to attack, as well.
Ultimately, he hasn’t broken out for a big game yet so you could also argue his props may normalize somewhere in the 30.0-yard range as the season wears on, making this a great time to buy low.
Regardless, the correlation potential with Young’s Higher and the great game environment makes him an easy add-on this week to our card.
- Play to: 30.5
- Aggregate Projection: 32.5
You can tail the previous three picks and 6x your money by clicking below, PLUS get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 with promo code LIFE!
Chris Olave higher than 57.5 receiving yards
If we are going back over the last 15 games or so, Olave has rarely had his receiving prop set this low. In the first few games of the year, his totals were generally around 64.0 to 74.0 receiving yards and he went for over 85.0 yards in each of his first three games.
Despite getting just 16 yards over the last two weeks, not much has changed from the circumstances that allowed him to produce those plus lines in Week 1 through 3.
The Saints' lower passing outputs the last two weeks were primarily due to a Carr injury and Patriots blowout and Olave, who acts as the Saints' primary downfield target (42% air yards share), suffered the most from the injury to Carr (which caused a 33% catchable target rate in Week 4).
This week, though, we have a healthy Carr, a dome environment, a young secondary and a game with a spread that has hovered between 1.0-2.0 points all week. A close game benefits Olave as the Saints should be passing late into the fourth.
Our aggregate projections have the second-year WR hovering around 64.5 yards for the week making him a great higher play to target in Week 6.
- Play to: 61.5
- Aggregate Projection: 64.5
If looking to make a 4-pick Pick'em combination, you can 10x your buy-in by clicking below to tail!
Garrett Wilson higher than 52.5 receiving yards
To take us home this week, let’s target one of the best young receivers in the game who comes into Week 6 with a criminally small yardage total on Underdog.
Wilson has averaged 9.5 targets per game with Zach Wilson at QB in 2023 and should be in a good game environment for Week 6 (Jets 7.0-point underdogs) where he could again approach his ceiling in terms of usage (14 targets in Week 4 against the Chiefs).
This total is so low, and Wilson is so talented, that we may not need game flow to work in our favor but, with the Eagles on tap, it likely will.
Philadelphia ranks 7th in offensive DVOA but their defense has lagged a bit (13th in defensive DVOA) and they could be without two starters in the secondary this week (Darius Slay, Justin Evans – questionable).
For the season, WRs have had a nice go of it against this Eagles secondary with five different WRs, over the Eagles last two games, posting games with 50 or more receiving yards against them.
Wilson has an aggregate projection of 57.5 yards this week on Fantasy Life and should be in a great spot given the game environment, to come up with the yardage we need to capitalize on his higher.
- Play to: 54.5
- Aggregate Projection: 57.5
You can tail the entire 5-pick Pick'em on Underdog Fantasy by clicking below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 AND the chance to 20x your buy-in!
