Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.
If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings.
Once again, we came extra close to hitting all five picks but ended up with a 3 for 5 hit rate in Week 6. Since Week 2 the picks have gone no worse than 3 for 5 for the week.
Ultimately we needed a few more yards from Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo – who somehow managed just 22 yards despite the Panthers playing in garbage time the entire second half (thank you, Frank Reich).
We’ll continue to look for some more correlation strategies but this week we are very focused on the HIGHERS for some receivers who are in high usage spots and locked into prime matchups.
As a reminder, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 (!!) when you sign up for a new account with promo code LIFE below!
The Week 7 Underdog plays are below!
Drake London HIGHER than 3.5 receptions
- Play to: 3.5 receptions; or 50.5 yards (HIGHER)
- Aggregate Projection: 4.1 receptions and 50.9 receiving yards
As much as I want to find some fault with this Drake London pick, I just can’t do it. The HIGHER here seems like a great play to build around. The Falcons have moved to an increasingly pass-happy offense with opposing defenses suddenly learning (after over a year) that stopping Arthur Smith’s offense isn’t all that hard – you simply stack the box and force Desmond Ridder to beat you.
London has been a beneficiary of late as the Falcons have a pass rate of 58.57% over their last three games (13th highest in the league) and face another funnel to the pass defense this week in Tampa Bay. Teams facing Tampa have thrown the ball an average of 38.6 times (6th most in the league).
The Bucs have also allowed 195 yards per game to opposing WRs and ceded over 100 yards to opposing teams' WR1s in four of five games (the one game they didn’t involved the Saints' Derek Carr playing with an injured shoulder).
London has now averaged 7.2 targets per game on the season but also has had an air yards share over 32% in each of the last three games.
As of now, with the matchup, and his usage showing such good traction of late, I would rather play the HIGHER on London’s 3.5 receptions (vs receiving yards)…BUT if this number moves to 4.0 receptions, pivoting to the HIGHER on his receiving yards (at anything 50.5 or lower) would be the move.
Christian Watson HIGHER than 52.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 54.5 yards
- Aggregate Projection: 55.5 receiving yards
Continuing with the theme of buying low on some really athletic, young WRs, Christian Watson is another name whose props this week look like very worthy HIGHER targets.
Watson took some time to get healthy but managed to go for 91 yards in his first game with a full complement of snaps against the Raiders.
How he achieved that total (with 77 yards coming on one play) does make him seem like a bit of a boom or bust option and many weeks that might be true, but this week he is playing the Broncos.
Denver is dead last in yards per pass attempt against (8.2) and also last in PFF coverage grade (45.5). Fellow speedsters and after the catch wizards, Tyreek Hill and DJ Moore had field days against this defense and Watson, who posted a 25% target share, and 76% air-yard share from Week 5, is in a great position to do the same.
You can combine London and Watson for a 3x payout and get your 100% deposit match by clicking below!
Justin Herbert HIGHER than 16.5 yards rushing
- Play to: 17.5 yards HIGHER
- Aggregate Projection: 18.1 rushing yards
I targeted Herbert on this prop last Monday Night and he promptly hit the over for me very quickly against the Cowboys high pressure defense. Herbert’s scramble rate for 2023 is way up vs last season (8% vs. three 3%) and, over the last two games, he’s posted an average scramble rate of 15% (to go with a season designed run rate of 8%).
In short, Herbert seems to be using his legs more than at any point in his career to date and I don’t think that his rushing totals have necessarily caught up to this fact. He’s now rushed for over 20 yards in each of his last two games and gone over this 15.5 number in three of five starts this season.
I don’t necessarily see this trend changing against KC either.
The Chiefs are good at bringing pressure (2nd in pressure rate, 5th in blitz rate) and QBs against them tend to use their legs more as a result. To date, the Chiefs have allowed the seventh most rushing yards to opposing QBs on the season.
Herbert’s higher is a good one target this week – and going forward when he’s up against higher-pressure defenses like KC.
Interested in tailing with Herbert added to the mix? Click below to up your payout to 6x for this 3-pick play!
Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER than 65.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 70.5 yards
- Aggregate Projection: 71.9 receiving yards
I’m not sure if they could have set the total high enough for me NOT to play the HIGHER on Brandon Aiyuk this week. From a setup standpoint, the situation really couldn’t be much better.
Instead of the windy, rainy conditions we had last week, Aiyuk and the 49ers offense will be in the confines of a dome and against a defense that brings none of the same ferociousness that the Browns did.
Minnesota has already given up 100 receptions to opposing WRs this season (most in the league) and also allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to WRs as well. The high blitz rate Minneosta likes to play with (57.9% – first in league) will mean plenty of man coverage opportunities for Aiyuk, who still managed 76 yards last week against a tough secondary – and was inches away from much more.
The 49ers and Brock Purdy should be in a mood to get back on track quickly this week and with Deebo Samuel (foot, back) and Christian McCaffrey (oblique) banged up this is a spot for Purdy and Aiyuk to really connect, like they did in Week 1 against another high pressure defense in Pittsburgh.
Even if this one rises a few yards, the play here is to back a 49ers air raid with Aiyuk leading the charge.
Adding Aiyuk to our Pick'em takes the payout from 6x to 10x, and you can tail the 4-pick play by clicking below!
Jordan Addison HIGHER than 48.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 53.5 yards
- Aggregate Projection: 61.9 receiving yards
I considered using Brock Purdy’s higher (236.5 passing yards) as the final slot for this Week’s ticket and if any of the other picks miss I may regret that decision. However, another total play from this game that also correlates with a big game from Brandon Aiyuk (albiet in a less direct manner) is the HIGHER on Jordan Addison.
The rookie had a very meh game against Chicago, posting just 28 yards in the win, but salvaged his day with a TD. It wasn’t the greatest performance but the weather issues and fact the Vikings were nursing a lead against a wounded Bears team explains some of the difficulties.
Oct 15, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) is unable to make the catch on a long pass in the first half while being defended by Chicago Bears defensive back Tyrique Stevenson (29) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
The fact is, at this low a number we don’t really need Addison to be an elite target earner to get us the HIGHER this week. Despite the slow day, he posted a 37% air yards share last week and plays a SF defense that is extremely good at shutting down the middle of the field (to the point where you might want to consider playing a LOWER on TJ Hockenson).
That should also mean more room and one-on-one situations for Addison, who projects as one of our strongest HIGHER plays of the week, with his aggregate projection of 61.9 receiving yards.
Ultimately, if this game goes as planned and Aiyuk and Purdy ball out against a weak Vikings defense, the garbage time and late game passing situations will likely be more than enough to vault Addison to the over.
You can add Addison to the Pick'em plays to boost your payout to a whopping 20x! Click below to tail the 5-pick Pick'em and good luck in Week 7!
Other Pick'em Plays to Target
Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of range here are some extra Week 7 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots:
- Darius Slayton HIGHER 32.5 receiving yards (play to 34.5)
- Pat Freiermuth HIGHER 20.5 receiving yards (play to 22.5)
- Cole Kmet LOWER 32.5 receiving yards (play to 31.5)
- Patrick Mahomes LOWER 278.5 passing yards (play to 276.5)
- Travis Kelce LOWER 72.5 receiving yards (play to 71.5)
- Mark Andrews HIGHER 53.5 receiving yards (play to 54.5)
- TJ Hockenson LOWER 48.5 receiving yards (play to 46.5)
- Brock Purdy HIGHER 236.5 passing yards (play to 238.5)
