Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. 

We took a small step back last week in the plays, going just 2 for 5. Christian Watson getting hurt late and Brandon Aiyuk getting mysteriously ghosted by Brock Purdy the entire second half was our main downfall. 

This week, I’m returning to a more correlated approach as I think there are a couple of great spots to target with QB/WR and WR/RB correlations, along with two great buy-low spots on elite WRs.

The Week 8 Underdog plays are below!

As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog to play Pick'em with promo code LIFE to cash in on a 100% deposit match of up to $500 (!!) below!

Derek Carr HIGHER than 236.5 passing yards 

I admit, whenever I look to take Derek Carr on a HIGHER in pick’em it does make me throw up in my mouth a little. At the same time, you can’t argue with the trends in this Saints offense, or the matchup. 

New Orleans is 11th in pass rate entering Week 8 and Carr has now thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games. That obviously doesn't guarantee us anything for Week 8 but it is always nice to know that Carr is more than capable of smashing this kind of number out of the water in the right game environment. 

On the other side, we have the Colts who rank 6th in plays per game (the Saints are 2nd) and have allowed four of seven QBs to go over this number against them – and ceded 264 yards to Ryan Tannehill in Week 5.

New Orleans is also overtly terrible at running the ball for the most part (28th in yards per rush) and the Colts have been good at stopping weaker rush offenses (3.8 YPC against). 

DeVonta Smith HIGHER than 48.5 receiving yards

Smith’s production with the Eagles can be a little hit or miss but, all things considered, when his yardage total drifts to these levels (high 40’s or low 50’s) it’s usually a great time to buy in.

Smith has now produced 100+ yards in a game for the Eagles seven times over his last 26 starts and managed 131 yards on just four catches back in Week 2. While he’s floundered a little since then, his slump isn’t likely to last for too long. 

Even with all the attention A.J. Brown is getting Smith’s usage is still healthy as he enters this game with a 22% target rate and a 32% air yards share on the season.

The Commanders' secondary has allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks (second worst in the league) and should be hyper-focused on stopping Brown after he victimized their secondary in Week 4 to the tune of 9-175-2. 

In short, there is big play, big game potential with both these receivers every week and just because the ball has gone more toward Brown of late doesn’t mean we should be writing off Smith.

Week 8 also looks like the perfect time to take a shot that the ball starts to find Smith more frequently.

You can tail Carr + Smith and 3x your Underdog entry PLUS get your $500 deposit match bonus below!

2 Pick'Em

Chris Olave HIGHER than 58.5 receiving yards

If we’re using Carr’s over we almost have to go back and slam Chris Olave into our ticket as well.

It’s been a weird week for the second-year WR, as he endured a terrible night last Thursday, converting just 7 of the 15 targets that were thrown his way by Carr and managed just 57 yards against one of the weaker secondaries in the league. 

In addition, Olave was arrested for excessive speeding on Monday but released right away and was a full practice participant on Wednesday. 

There is a lot to digest here, but the bottom line is that his projections this week are still extremely low for someone who has a 26% target share and a mammoth 40% air yards share on the season. 

Chris Olave

I’m betting that we see a little more inspired effort from him after he spent most of the last week or so ruining his reputation and enduring multiple embarrassing situations.

Our projections think this line is a little low as well as he’s projected in the 68.0 yards range in our site’s Freedman model.

You can add Olave to your Pick'em for a 3-way entry to 6x your buy-in and tail by clicking below!

3-Way Pick'em

Alvin Kamara LOWER than 53.5 rushing yards

With two receiving/passing highers, we’re already exploiting the fact the Saints are a poor rushing team and not likely to find a ton of success this week against a decent Colts defensive line.

But why not take it a step further and look to directly short their main back as well?

Alvin Kamara has averaged 18 carries over his last two games and has not breached 70 rushing yards in either game. Overall, his last three starts have seen him take 58 carries and average 3.62 ypc. The Saints may have seen enough as there is already talk about getting Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller more involved and saving Kamara more for the passing game. 

When you add in a somewhat poor matchup I think the LOWER is a pretty attractive play, especially if we’re playing Saints passing/receiving HIGHERs. 

Even though we have Kamara projected slightly higher in our projections, the correlation factor and fact that the Saints are openly talking about increasing touches for other backs both work in our favor – and may just work to adjust the projections in our favor as well into Sunday.

Adding Kamara allows you to 10x your buy-in PLUS get your $500 deposit match! Click below to tail the 4-way Pick'em:

4-Way Pickem

DK Metcalf HIGHER than 53.5 receiving yards

I get the fact that we should be respecting the Cleveland defense (1st in defensive DVOA) but let’s also not forget that DK Metcalf is a freak of nature and a player who is nearly impossible to shut down, by any defense. 

Metcalf enters this big game against Cleveland off an extra week of rest, as well, after he sat out the easy win against Arizona so he could rest a sore hip.

DK Metcalf

Oct 15, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) catches a pass but is out of bounds near the end zone in the third quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

The injury issue may also be working to keep his total low this week, which makes it a great spot to buy into some unneeded fear. Metcalf actually practiced last week on Friday so him sitting was likely somewhat precautionary. He’s already practiced twice for Week 8 and was a full participant each day. 

Add in the fact that Tyler Lockett (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday and may not be 100% and Metcalf’s target share may go up a decent chunk in Week 8. 

Cleveland’s tough schedule of late may be catching up to them as well. They have now allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt over their last three games and could be on the field a ton here given how banged up their offense is. Metcalf is in a great spot to produce a HIGHER for us in Week 8.

You can combine all five of the Pick'em selections for a 20x payout on your plays and also take advantage of the $500 deposit match by clicking the picks below!

5 Picks

Other Week 8 Pick'em Plays to Target

Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of range here are some extra Week 8 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots: 

  • CeeDee Lamb HIGHER 66.5 receiving yards (play to 69.5)
  • Jared Goff LOWER 285.5 passing yards (play to 220.5)
  • AJ Brown LOWER 87.5 receiving yards (play to 85.5)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson HIGHER 17.5 receiving yards (play to 19.5)
  • Ja’Marr Chase HIGHER 82.5 receiving yards (play to 84.5)
  • Breece Hall HIGHER 68.5 receiving yards (play to 70.5)
  • JOE BURROW HIGHER 245.5 passing yards (play to 247.5)
  • Jordan Love HIGHER 14.5 rushing yards (play to 16.5) 
Underdog Pick'em Plays