Underdog Pick'em Best Plays. Week 9.
Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.
If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings.
In Week 8 we once again came within a few plays of hitting the perfect 5/5 – but ultimately ended the week 3 for 5. Both DK Metcalf and DeVonta Smith came through with easy Highers, but our Saints correlation came up short. Derek Carr smashed his passing prop out of the water but somehow couldn't bring Chris Olave along for the ride. Alvin Kamara also continued to get 15+ carries a game which brought him just over his total.
One more completion to Olave may have meant less for Kamara and both hitting… but we move on.
This week, I’m buying the low sentiment on a once beloved QB/WR combo while also looking to correlate a couple of key players from one of the biggest games of the week.
The Week 9 Underdog pick’em plays are below.
As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code LIFE to get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 below!
Taylor Heinicke HIGHER – 13.5 rushing yards
- Play to: 14.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 15.7 rush yards
Let’s start with one of the simple plays off the top. Taylor Heinicke will be running the Falcons offense this week and, all things considered, should be an improvement over Desmond Ridder.
One thing I expect to continue with Heinicke in at QB is the Falcons to use their QB on designed runs.
Ridder had a 7% designed run rate on the season and had run for 18 yards or more in each of his last three games. Heinicke is just as mobile and averaged over 20.0 yards a game rushing for Washington between 2020 and 2021. Last week, Heinicke was already scrambling at a 7% clip and managed 14 yards on two carries in limited work.
This week he’ll also face the Vikings who blitz at the highest rate in the league and have allowed the sixth-most yards rushing to opposing QBs.
One way or another (designed runs, scrambles) I expect Heinicke to take off at some point for a few productive runs and likely end up over this number at the end of the game.
Dak Prescott HIGHER - 248.5 passing yards
- Play to: 254.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 252.6 passing yards
We have two high-powered offenses in this game and a QB in Dak Prescott who is playing some good ball of late. Prescott has been efficient over his last two games (75% completion rate and 9.4 yards per attempt) and will have three healthy WRs to work with against an Eagles secondary that has regressed this year – and allowed the second-most yards to opposing WRs.
We have Prescott projected for 35.0 attempts and 252 yards (making the HIGHER slightly more appealing) but I really do feel like this is an even better upside spot than our projections are letting on. Teams against Philadelphia are throwing the ball 39.5 times per game (second-most in the league) as their front seven have been a top-10 unit against the run thus far (3.8 yards per carry).
The Cowboys Offensive Line also has some injury issues (Tyron Smith – questionable) and Dallas has not run the ball efficiently at all in 2023 (19th in yards per rush – 3.9 ypc).
Overall, I like the fact we have two teams who play at a faster pace (top 12 in plays per game) and whose offenses will likely dictate the pace of this game. Prescott seems likely to be throwing late into this game as well (Cowboys +3.0 underdogs) and his performances of late make this a good spot to trust that he’ll reach his higher for us, even if his volume disappoints a little.
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D’Andre Swift HIGHER - 13.5 rush attempts
- Play to: 14.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 14.4 attempts
One player the projections and I definitely agree on in this game is D’Andre Swift.
Swift’s gained full control of the Eagles backfield and seems unlikely to see a volume dropoff in this week after Kenneth Gainwell dropped a key fumble and then went on social media at halftime to respond to a heckler.
Is Gainwell getting benched? Probably not. Are the Eagles going to reward him with a bigger role this week? Absolutely not.
Swift was already seeing more work than Gainwell by a clear margin and heads into Week 9 having gone for 14 or more carries now in five of his last six games. The Eagles attacked the Cowboys on the ground last year (Miles Sanders went for 18 and 21 carries against them in two games in 2022) and given the strength of the Cowboys' secondary (9th in yards per pass attempt) it seems likely the Eagles will employ the same strategy with Swift – who is also arguably the superior runner to Sanders.
We have Swift projected for 14.4 carries this week on Fantasy Life and a big day for him on the ground also correlates more with the Eagles having the lead late (and the Cowboys passing more) – making this an excellent HIGHER to play with our Prescott prop.
You can add Swift to your selections to 6x your buy-in and tail by clicking below!
Jordan Love HIGHER - 220.5 passing yards
- Play to: 226.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 219.7 passing yards
Love has been all over the map in terms of his production in 2023. While it’s easy to lose faith we have to remember that the Packers are a young team that didn’t have the luxury of starting the year with number one WR. This week will mark the fourth game that Christian Watson is back – and playing in full – and a matchup where I fully expect the Love/Watson duo to produce some good returns.
The Rams' defense has shown some clear regression after a strong start and now ranks just 19th in yards per play and 20th in yards per pass attempt against. Their defense is also fifth-last in pressure rate which will likely help the accuracy of Love, who has the who has the fourth-most dropbacks under pressure, according to PFF.
Over their last four games, the Rams have faced a couple of the worst passing offenses in the league (Arizona and Pittsburgh) but still managed to cede 230+ yards in both those situations, and also just allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 304 yards on just 31 pass attempts last week.
Despite Love’s inefficiencies, he still leads the league in aDOT (9.3 yards per throw) and has gone over this mark in four of seven games in 2023. With a great matchup and clear skies expected for Green Bay this week, I like playing for a Love bounce-back game and a HIGHER on his low total.
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Christian Watson HIGHER - 42.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 44.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 48.6 rush yards
If we’re playing a HIGHER on Jordan Love, you probably already guessed what was coming next. Christian Watson has had a frustrating start to the year but his total in Week 9 is the lowest we’ve seen since he returned to a full-time role in Week 5.
Watson’s actual production in 2023 has been miserable (under 40 yards in three of the last four games) but there isn’t much to be worried about from a usage standpoint. He’s posted an air yards share of over 35% in two of his last three games and a target share of at least 20% in two of his last three games.
Watson’s main deficiency this year is that he’s not come down with any “jump balls” (he’s 0/8 on contested catches) and also has a catchable target rate of just 50%. These kinds of stats tend to even out over time and eventually some of these deeper throws will go his way.
As mentioned above, the Rams are a perfect get-right matchup. Their secondary has given up 100+ yards to a WR in back-to-back games and allowed 8.4 yards per attempt last week to the Cowboys. Watson endured a rough start but likely bounces back in a game where we have clear weather and the Packers offense facing a declining defense.
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