Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.

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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for the Conference Championship Round.

Jerick McKinnon Under 4.0 Receptions

McKinnon had some monster games to close out the Chiefs’ regular season. He had at least one receiving touchdown in each of his final six games, and he had nine total scores over that time frame. He also averaged 5.2 targets and 4.5 receptions per game over that stretch, so he was doing plenty of damage as a pass-catcher.

However, he was completely shut out as a receiver in the Chiefs’ first playoff matchup. Despite playing more snaps and running more routes than usual, McKinnon failed to log even a single target. Part of that was due to Travis Kelce, who was an absolute monster last week. He racked up 17 targets and like McKinnon, most of Kelce’s targets come around the line of scrimmage. Kelce posted an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 7.4 yards this season, and that figure declined to just 5.3 last week.

With Patrick Mahomes currently hobbled, he might need to lean heavily on Kelce once again. The team might also need their running backs to do more pass blocking than usual, since Mahomes’ mobility will be questionable at best.

Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts

While McKinnon continues to lead the Chiefs’ backfield in snaps, Pacheco remains their preferred between-the-tackles grinder. He filled that role beautifully to end the regular season, racking up at least 13 carries in seven straight games from Weeks 10 through 16. He saw a slight downtick in Weeks 17 and 18, but he was back to work with 12 carries last week against the Jaguars. Pacheco has been extremely efficient this season, and he averaged 7.92 yards per attempt last week. Ultimately, nothing he’s done should change his role as the team’s top runner.

This line is arguably a bit too low to begin with, but that’s particularly true given the injury to Patrick Mahomes. The team could lean a bit more on the rushing attack than usual in an attempt to protect their quarterback.

A matchup with the Bengals is also a good one in which to establish the run. They’ve been more mediocre against the run than the pass this season, ranking 14th in rush defense DVOA. The Bengals basically dared the Chiefs to beat them with their rushing attack when these two teams met during the regular season, and Mahomes attempted just 27 passes in that contest. Pacheco had 14 rushing attempts and we could be looking at a similar game plan on Sunday.

Joe Mixon Under 86.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Mixon is coming off a productive contest last week versus the Bills. He finished with 20 carries and two receptions, which he turned into 123 total yards. The Bills entered that contest third in rush defense DVOA, so it was one of Mixon’s most impressive performances of the year.

However, Mixon has ultimately had a disappointing campaign. His efficiency has been a major issue, averaging a paltry 3.9 yards per attempt. Samaje Perine hasn’t been much better – he’s averaged 4.1 yards per attempt – but he’s started to cut into Mixon’s playing time. After dominating the touches for most of the year, Mixon has seen a drastic reduction in market share over the past few weeks. His 20 carries last week were a bit misleading; his 63% market share was a subpar mark. If not for the fact that the Bengals had a comfortable lead for most of that contest, Mixon’s final workload would look a lot less appealing.

Maybe the Bengals can employ a similar game script against the Chiefs, but I doubt it. Even with a banged-up Mahomes, the Chiefs are simply too talented to fall behind in the same fashion that the Bills did. Their defensive line should also have a massive advantage against the Bengals’ depleted offensive line, so I wouldn’t expect nearly the same production as a runner for Mixon this week.

Additionally, Perine has supplanted Mixon as the team’s preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield. He played on 78% of the long-yardage situations last week, leaving Mixon without a ton of pass-catching opportunities. You can play the under on both the rushing and receiving numbers for Mixon, but combining them together is the most appealing option.

Joe Mixon

Bengals running back Joe Mixon finds open space in the Bills defense.

Kyle Juszczyk Under 6.5 Receiving Yards

Juszczyk is one of the few fullbacks in the league who is actually somewhat relevant. He spends most of the game doing the dirty work for the 49ers, but they will occasionally reward him with a target or a rushing attempt.

That said, Juszczyk has not been nearly as involved in the passing game with Brock Purdy under center. Including the postseason, Juszczyk has one target or fewer in six straight games, and he’s had zero targets in four of them. He’s managed to eclipse 6.5 receiving yards in just one of those contests, and it came against the Cardinals’ putrid defense.

With Juszczyk’s role on the decline, I have no problem grabbing the under on his receiving line in a tough matchup against the Eagles.

A.J. Brown Under 71.5 Receiving Yards

Brown had an excellent first season with the Eagles. Finally freed from the Titans’ prehistoric offense, Brown erupted for career-highs in virtually every category. He racked up 88 catches, 1,496 yards, and 11 scores during the regular season, and he was rewarded with a spot on the All-Pro Second Team.

Still, calling Brown a No. 1 receiver is a bit of a stretch. It has nothing to do with his talent – he’s clearly one of the best receivers in football – but he’s not a clear-cut alpha receiver from a volume standpoint. He grades out very similarly to DeVonta Smith in both target share and air yards, and Dallas Goedert has gotten plenty of work when healthy as well.

Smith took the lead as the Eagles’ top receiver last week versus the Giants, finishing with 43% of the team’s targets and 52% of their air yards. That left just six targets for Brown, which he turned into a measly three catches for 22 yards.

That was also in a dream matchup facing the Giants, and this week’s game against the 49ers will be significantly tougher. They were fourth in DVOA versus No. 1 receivers this season, so even if Brown sees a bit more volume, there’s no guarantee he’s able to take advantage.

If you play Over/Under on Sleeper, check out my picks here!