Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This week, the playoffs begin. With six games spread across three days, it’s a crazy time to be sweating bets and making pick’em tickets. Rather than making one card that took the entire Wild Card weekend to play out I’ve instead focused on the last two days of play (Sunday and Monday) but did provide some extra plays for the Saturday slate at the end of this article as well. 

There are also extra pick’em plays up in the FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, and I’ll likely be posting a couple more before kickoff on Saturday. We are still up over +75 units on the season for all posted plays. 

Underdog Tracker

For this week, I did change the strategy up a little bit and made five picks that were a little less correlated than usual. That’s for a couple of reasons but mainly because the payouts are better on Underdog now when you don’t correlate QBs and receivers.

Regardless of how you lean in that argument, you can still pick and choose which pick’em plays you like for Super Wildcard Weekend below and mix them into your tickets as you please. Or you can simply ride the entire 5-way card with me and see if we can get a group hit!

My entire five-way card for the first round of the playoffs is below.

As a reminder, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up for Underdog with promo code LIFE!

Underdog Pick'em Plays for Saturday Wild Card Slate

With the games being spread across three days I wanted to make sure I covered all six games. With that in mind here are a few of my favorite plays from the Saturday slate before we jump into the rest of the weekend.

David Njoku HIGHER than 54.5 receiving yards

  • Play to: 56.5

Njoku is in a great spot against a Texans pass defense that allowed the second-most receptions and third-most yards to opposing TEs. 

David Bell LOWER than 20.5 receiving yards

  • Play to: 19.5

I'm surprised this line is so high.

Bell will see a few more snaps because Tillman is out but he’s hardly trustworthy for more than a target or two. 

Durham Smythe HIGHER than 18.5 receiving yards

  • Play to: 20.5

Smythe has been an integral part of the Dolphins offense for weeks now.

He should be relied on even more as a possession receiver in a cold-weather game. 

Tua Tagovailoa HIGHER than 0.5 interceptions

  • Play to: 0.5

Tagovailoa has thrown 22 INTs in 25 road starts for his career.

Ka'imi Fairbairn HIGHER than 1.5 FGs

  • Play to: 1.5

Houston has averaged 2.0 FGs per game – fifth-most in the league – and Fairbairn has been very accurate this year.

Matthew Stafford HIGHER than 276.5 passing yards 

Matthew Stafford walking back into Detroit… with a chance to knock off his old team. How does he not go off?

The Lions QB has played spectacular football this season and has ended the year with two games of 300 yards passing or more. Overall, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt and has gone over this number in four of his final five starts of the regular season.

The Lions are also a terrific matchup.

They're a textbook funnel to the pass defense that is 30th in yards per attempt against and 30th in passing yards allowed, overall. They allowed an average of 384 yards passing over their final three games, and in two of those games, they were up against Nick Mullens.

The Rams' secondary is no world-beater either and that should help ensure that Detroit moves the ball quickly as well, keeping the Rams' offensive tempo fast. 

Look for Stafford to at least end this game with a big statline even if he doesn’t get the outright win. 

Josh Reynolds HIGHER than 30.5 receiving yards

Let’s stick with this game for one more play.

While you could certainly correlate Stafford with either Puka Nucau (preferred) or Cooper Kupp HIGHERs, going that route will also affect your payout.

If you want to maintain at least a 20x payout for 5 plays on Underdog then I’d recommend bypassing the correlation and going with a HIGHER on Josh Reynolds – who may be acting as the defacto number two wide receiver for the Lions this weekend. 

As of Thursday night, WR Kalif Raymond is likely out and TE Sam LaPorta hasn’t practiced. Jameson Williams is still very raw and also got banged up last week.

Reynolds stepped up with those three players hurting last week and caught five passes for 44 yards. He also went for 50+ yards in five of his first six games this season – when Williams was suspended. With this game likely to feature plenty of passing and back-and-forth action, there is still some value showing on his HIGHER even now that it has hit the low 30s. 

Josh Allen LOWER than 19.5 completions 

This could best be classified as a “gut play” since it is going against our official site projections, but it’s also based on an impending weather situation and not the bowl of ice cream I had for dinner last night.

The forecast for Buffalo on Saturday is for bitter cold (20-25F) with winds that may reach 20mph – and make the cold nearly unfathomable when the players are on the field. In that type of game environment, who in their right mind would ask their QB to drop back more than necessary?

Josh Allen

Oct 26, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) gestures in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills have also moved to being more of a ball-control, run-first team since switching offensive coordinators with Josh Allen completing fewer than 16 passes in three of his final four games.

If Buffalo does get a lead (and they likely will as -10.0 favorites) then we’re likely to see very conservative play calling with Allen potentially being asked to do more with his legs than his arm in this spot. It’s a good spot to take a LOWER and play the conditions. 

Jalen Hurts LOWER than 237.5 passing yards  

Let’s head to the Monday Night game for our final two plays. The Eagles will be visiting the Buccaneers and have many injury issues to monitor on offense. Jalen Hurts is likely going to play but hasn’t practiced to start the week and hasn’t thrown a ball since dislocating a finger on his throwing hand against the Giants. 

It’s not a great situation to begin with and it will likely be made worse by the injuries incurred by his WRs in last week’s game as well. DeVonta Smith (ankle) got banged up again but has stated he’ll play against Tampa (despite missing practice time with Hurts) while A.J. Brown (knee) looks highly questionable and may even be a game-time decision.

Either way, it’s a tough spot for Hurts and one the Eagles will likely try to work around by running more than usual. We also have Hurts projected towards being a good LOWER play this week with his total set in the 225 range on Fantasy Life.

D’Andre Swift HIGHER than 59.5 rushing yards

With the passing game for the Eagles banged up and potentially even down a man, Philadelphia should look to its rushing attack in this spot to pick up the slack.

Swift was one of the few starters who didn't play last week and, right now, that is looking like a good bit of luck for him and his team. The former Lion has already returned to practice and looks healthy after missing Week 18 with an illness. 

Before sitting last week, Swift had cleared 60 yards or more rushing in a game in five of his last seven starts with his only down weeks coming against elite teams – mainly the Cowboys and 49ers. Given that he sat last week with an illness – and not an injury – it’s also safe to say that he should be in for a regular or even expanded workload (note: he had averaged 17 carries over his final three starts). 

Taking his HIGHER also correlates very well with the Hurts Passing LOWER in our last pick (more rushing success = more rushing yards = fewer passing attempts) making it a great one to use to finish off our pick’em card for Super Wild Card week.

You can tail the 5-way Pick'em and get your 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you click the plays below!

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