Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.

Week 13 didn’t see a lot go our way. Brock Purdy smashed his passing total out of the water but somehow all the yards went to someone other than Brandon Aiyuk. We did bounce back by cashing a nice 3-way pick’em on Monday Night Football in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where there are already multiple plays posted for Week 14. 

As a reminder, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up for a new account at Underdog Fantasy with promo code LIFE below!

Our Sunday Week 14 main card is below…

Baker Mayfield HIGHER than 226.5 passing yards 

The Falcons have turned into more of a traditional funnel to the pass defense as the season has worn on. They’ve allowed just 3.9 yards per rush on the year but they’ve become susceptible to bigger plays in the secondary as their lack of pressure up front has allowed better QBs to take advantage of them downfield.

They’ve allowed 6.7 yards per attempt over their last three games (up from their seasonal average of 6.1) and that includes a game against the Jets and their league-worst offense. 

Mayfield himself – who ranks 14th in EPA/play this year – threw for 275 yards against Atlanta in Week 7. With Tampa Bay’s defensive line banged he’ll potentially be in a spot, again, where dropping back 30+ times may be a necessity, if the Buccaneers want to win this game. 

We have Mayfield projected right in the mid-220-yard range this week. However, the upside here does look promising and our projections are higher on him than they were last week (despite underperforming two weeks in a row now). 

When all is said and done, I expect Atlanta’s offense to put far more pressure on Tampa Bay than Carolina’s did, and force Mayfield into a higher volume of passing and big yardage total in Week 14.

Rachaad White HIGHER than 23.5 receiving yards

Given that we started with a HIGHER on Mayfield’s yardage, the HIGHER on White’s yardage looks like a no-brainer to go alongside it. 

White is one of the league’s most efficient and, overall, most talented receiving backs. He’s third receptions among all RBs this year and has a 90% conversion rate on targets (46 catches, 51 targets). He’s also a better open-field runner than people realize and rates out fifth in receiving yards after contact, far ahead of other elite pass-catching RBs like Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Rachaad White

Oct 16, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (29) runs the ball against Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Chris Wormley (bottom) and linebacker Alex Highsmith (56) during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons are also a solid matchup for White. In three of their last six games Atlanta has allowed an RB to go for over 40 yards receiving (and over 10 yards a catch) – with White himself posting a 6-65 day receiving against Atlanta back in Week 7. 

White’s HIGHER can certainly be played on its own but by correlating it with Mayfield’s HIGHER we give ourselves a great shot at checking off two selections at once for our Week 14 card. 

Cade Otton HIGHER than 23.5 receiving yards

With Mike Evans receiving yardage set in the high 70s range this week we’re not showing a huge edge in either direction on his total. A LOWER on Evans may even be warranted given how good CB AJ Terrell has been this season but I’d rather look for another prop that correlates positively with Mayfield’s HIGHER. 

Otton has had some big weeks for the Buccaneers, topping 40 yards in four of his last seven games. Last week against the Panthers he posted a rare goose egg (0 targets, 0 catches). However, that game also involved Tampa Bay milking a lead for most of the second half against an inexcusably bad Panthers passing game. Otton should bounce back this week. 

Atlanta is at home and favored, and has allowed the fourth most receptions and third most yards to opposing TEs on the year. Despite the poor outing in Week 13, Otton still dominated the snaps for Tampa at TE with a 94% route rate.

Considering his total has now moved down a few points this week (it was in the 26-29 yard range last week) I really like buying low and correlating this with the HIGHER on Mayfield as well for our third pick – and potentially cashing three picks at once with Tampa’s passing offense this week.

James Cook HIGHER than 46.5 rushing yards 

Despite the Bills' love affair with Latavius Murray and their insistence on singing depth pieces like Leonard Fourtnette Cook has still taken 12 carries or more in six of his last seven games. He’s also averaged 16.5 carries a game in the two starts since the Bills fired former OC Ken Dorsey. 

For context, Cook has taken 12 or more carries 10 times this year already. In those games, he rushed for 50 yards or more seven times and 40 yards or more nine times. For the season he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and is fourth in explosive run plays (10+ yards). 

The Chiefs are also a great matchup. They may be without LB Drue Tranquill (concussion - questionable) and are just 21st in success rate against the run this season. The Chiefs have also allowed at least one RB to post 70+ rushing yards against them in every game they’ve played since Week 7. 

Cook’s projected in the 53.0-54.0 yard range in our aggregate projections this week and makes for a solid HIGHER target in this market even if his total reaches the mid-to-high 40s by the end of the week. 

Jakobi Meyers HIGHER than 3.5 receptions 

Let’s end with one more HIGHER on what looks like a conservative receptions total for the Raiders Jakobi Meyers. 

Over his last two games with rookie Aiden O’Connell under center, Meyers has seen 12 targets and been able to convert 10 of those passes into catches. This week he’ll face a Vikings defense that is solid against the run (10th in rush EPA) and likes to blitz – often leaving their corners in man coverage. As a result, the Vikings (who don’t have a deep cornerback group) have allowed the fourth most receptions to opposing WRs. 

Meyers doesn’t create a lot of separation but has always been one of the best in contested catch rate and should be in a great spot to get lots of short outlet passes this week. It’s also possible he’ll avoid the Vikings' best corner in Byron Murphy Jr. who could be used to shadow Davante Adams, whom he has had success against in the past. 

We have Meyers receptions projected in the 4.0 range and you could also think about pivoting to the HIGHER on his yardage (if the reception total were to move to 4.0 later in the week).

You can combine the five picks to put together a 20x payout on top of your 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you click below!

5 Pick Pick'em

Other Week 14 Pick'em Plays

Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of range here are some extra Week 10 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots: 

  • Justin Herbert HIGHER 257.5 passing yards (play to 262.5)
  • Courtland Sutton HIGHER 57.5 receiving yards (play to 59.5)
  • Keaton Mitchell HIGHER 44.5 rushing yards (play to 46.5)
  • De’Von Achane HIGHER 57.5 rushing yards (play to 59.5)
  • Jared Goff LOWER 240.5 passing yards (play to 235.5)
Underdog PickEm