Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.

While our Tampa Bay HIGHER stack didn’t work out in Week 14, a lot went right. Three out of the five plays I posted in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life hit and it has pushed us past +48.0 units on the season, for the time being. 

Pick'em Tracker

I always post multiple early week plays there so be sure to bookmark and keep a watch out for when they drop as getting early lines/totals can be hugely beneficial. 

The main Underdog pick’em card for Week 15 is below. 

As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code LIFE below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100!

Lamar Jackson HIGHER than 28.0 passing attempts

I like this spot for Jackson to keep doing what he’s done the past two weeks, which is throw the ball. Over his last two games he’s attempted 32 and 43 passes respectively, and in six road games this year he’s thrown the ball 30 or more times on four occasions. 

The Jaguars (who will host the Jackson and the Ravens) are also an opponent who tends to force teams into quicker tempo and more passing on offense as well. They’re 6th in plays per game and rank second in the league in success rate against the run. Teams playing Jacksonville are also averaging 38.4 pass attempts, per game, the second most in the league. 

We have Jackson projected in the 29-30 attempt range this week but I would still play the HIGHER on any total under 30. Jackson is playing well and given his hot stretch Baltimore seems likely to lean towards quick passes – more than designed runs – against a top-tier rushing defense. 

Odell Beckham HIGHER than 38.5 receiving yards 

Obviously, if we’re playing for Jackson to have a heavier volume day as a passer then we can look to some of his receivers to benefit from that kind of game script as well.

Odell Beckham has been on fire of late from an efficiency standpoint as the former New York Giant enters this week having gone for over 90 yards receiving in two of his last three outings. 

Beckham’s snap count is managed, as the Ravens are limiting his usage to keep him fresh, but his target rate has been outstanding. 

Odell Beckham

Overall, Beckham has seen an average target rate of around 24% in the last three weeks and a Target per route run (TPRR) rate of over 30% in each of his last three games as well.

The Jaguars are a bottom-tier passing defense who are 27th in yards per attempt against and have allowed the sixth most receiving yards to opposing WRs. 

Beckham’s total still looks low in this spot and projects as a great correlation square to add with our Jackson HIGHER. 

Keaton Mitchell HIGHER than 8.5 receiving yards 

If we think the Ravens may pass the ball a little more in this spot, and use quick passes to counteract the Jaguars' rush defense then, logically, it should benefit the Ravens RBs from a receiving angle as well.

Rookie Keaton Mitchell has been a big play machine when he’s touched the ball this season producing 8.5 yards per carry and 11.1 yards per reception to date. 

The Jaguars have also been terrible at covering RBs out of the backfield. To date, Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions and third most receiving yards against to opposing RBs. Mitchell’s snap count is concerning (33% of the snaps last week) but this total is exceedingly low and he’s seen multiple targets in each of his last two games. 

Again, if we like Jackson to be dropping back more than usual then Mitchell’s target volume could benefit as well. Ultimately, one target may be enough to get him over this total against such a weak coverage unit. And since we’re playing the Ravens passing angle in our first two picks adding in Mitchell’s receiving HIGHER for our third pick makes tons of sense as well. 

Travis Etienne HIGHER than 53.5 rushing yards 

At first glance, playing rushing overs against the Ravens may not look overly appealing. However, there are some good indications that this may indeed be a good buy low spot on Travis Etienne.

Since Week 10 the Ravens rush defense has not been good. They are dead last in success rate against the rush over that period and over their last three games have allowed 4.9 yards per rush against – 6th worst in the league. 

Etienne has been hampered by a rib issue but he is coming up on three weeks removed from when he suffered that injury – and has been playing and practicing through it for the most part. This is a massive game for the Jaguars and it’s hard to see them limiting him unless absolutely necessary. I’m also trusting our projections in this spot which have his HIGHER projected as a strong edge. 

Finally, a big Etienne day on the ground correlates well with our Ravens passing HIGHERs, as him gobbling up yards and moving the chains will likely force the Ravens into more up-tempo passing spots as the game progresses. 

Tony Pollard HIGHER than 51.5 rushing yards 

Let’s end things with one more RB HIGHER, this time on the perennially underrated Tony Pollard. Pollard started the season slowly but has come on as the year has progressed. He’s now rushed for 55 yards or more in five straight games and has taken 12 or more carries in seven straight games as well.

This week’s game against Buffalo could be a run-heavy affair as well.

There is the potential for some snow or rain and winds well above 10mph. Regardless, with the Cowboys on the road and facing what is generally a middling Buffalo run defense (20th in EPA against the rush) – who could be without a key DE in A.J. Epenesa – I like this spot for Pollard to carry the Cowboys offense. 

We have him projected into the 60-yard range as well on Fantasy Life, suggesting this total may have opened a little low. With that in mind, as well as the weather, I like using this as a good buy-low opportunity and making him our fifth pick for Week 15.

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