Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.

Our Baltimore Ravens-centered ticket from Week 15 flamed out last Sunday night but we still had another very profitable week, overall. Five of the eight plays I posted in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life hit and it has pushed us up over +70 units on the season (for the time being).

Pick'em Tracker

We will not run this well every week but it’s nice to get some breaks going our way after being unlucky in a few key spots early on in the year. 

Like always, in this article, we’ll try to hit the big 5-way ticket, and the picks for this week are below…

As a reminder, you can sign up for Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

Jordan Love LOWER than 21.5 passing completions

Love has been over this number in each of his past five games but he’s also yet to face the Panthers. Carolina is taking the air and pace out of every game they play of late, running the ball relentlessly regardless of the score. It’s caused the opposing team to pass at far lower rates than normal. 

The last 3 QBs to face the Panthers:

  • Baker Mayfield (29 attempts)
  • Derek Carr (26 attempts)
  • Desmond Ridder (20 attempts)

Additionally, with CB Jaycee Horn back the Panthers have been a tough secondary to throw on and set up as a funnel to the run defense – which Green Bay should be happy to exploit.

I’d expect Love’s attempts and efficiency to dry up this week, and that this game ends with him going LOWER on his completion total.

Chuba Hubbard HIGHER than 16.5 rush attempts 

Another factor in liking the Love LOWER? The fact the Panthers may be able to hold onto the ball for more than a minute at a time in this game.

Green Bay ranks 22nd in success rate against the run and has allowed the lead back facing them to go for 18+ attempts and 80+ yards in three straight contests. 

Teams facing the Packers know their defensive line is exploitable too.

Opponents of Green Bay have averaged 30.5 rush attempts per game this year and while some of that big number stems from the Packers own offensive deficiencies at the start of the season, it’s worth noting that recent opponents like the Lions and Chiefs still ran the ball extensively – despite being down for large portions of the game. 

Hubbard enters having averaged 23.5 carries and 92.5 yards per game over his last three starts and has seen his snap share go well over 70% in each of the last games as well. Given the overall inefficiency of Miles Sanders (6 carries, 2 yards last week) I don’t see any reason why the Hubbard takeover would come to a stop against Green Bay.

Sam Howell LOWER than 35.5 passing attempts

Howell’s LOWER is appealing on multiple levels this week. First, and foremost, there is no guarantee he will finish this game. Howell has managed just 4.69 yards per attempt over his last two appearances and has now thrown six INTs over his last three and a half games. He was benched last week in the second half for Jacoby Brissett and you have to think that if he starts slow there’s a chance Brissett will come on again. 

Second, Howell also faces one of the league's best pass defenses in the Jets and opponents of the Jets have averaged just 30.6 pass attempts, per game. Even if Howell plays well the Jets' offense is so terrible (last in EPA per play) that Washington could easily opt for a run-heavy approach with rookie Chris Rodriguez and Antonio Gibson. 

Last but not least, we have this rating with a significant edge to the LOWER on Fantasy Life, with Howell sitting at 33.0 attempts in our aggregate projections. The 3.0 attempt gap between projection and total makes this LOWER a great one to attack from pretty much every angle in Week 16.

Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER than 63.5 receiving yards

Let’s end our Week 16 plays by targeting the last game of the Week, a primetime showdown between two of the best teams in the NFL on Christmas Day. 

Aiyuk’s regular prop line of 61.5 receiving yards is about 6-7 yards lower than it was last week. The 49ers WR has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, going under 60 yards in seven starts but over 100 yards in five.

Brandon Aiyuk

Dec 12, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) walks off the field after the win over the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The matchup, and the fact our projections again have him as a strong over-target (72.0 aggregate projection), make him a solid buy-low target in Week 16.

Baltimore has struggled against better downfield receivers this season allowing 100+ yards to Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp in two of their last three games. And while they’ve also struggled in run-stopping of late, the Ravens were much better in that regard against Jacksonville, and are still a step up from the rush defenses (Seattle, Arizona) that San Francisco has taken on over the last couple of weeks. 

I expect the Ravens to force the 49ers to lean on the pass more than they had to last week and for the explosive Aiyuk to ultimately overcome this matchup and post another big game.

Gus Edwards HIGHER than 39.5 rushing yards

On the other side of this game, we have a much more straightforward HIGHER to end with. Edwards looks like he’s regained control of this Ravens backfield once again after rookie Keaton Mitchell went down with a knee injury last Sunday Night.

It was a crucial blow for the Ravens Super Bowl hopes, and will force them to put Edwards back in the spotlight. 

Edwards rushed the ball 16 times last week for 58 yards and between Week’s 6-8 (when Mitchell was out of the lineup) Edwards averaged 61.6 yards per game and 16.5 rush attempts. The 49ers rush defense has been exploited at times this season as well and ranks just 29th in EPA per rush. 

I won’t take all the credit for this one (assuming it hits) as our own Matthew Freedman placed it in our FREE bet tracker on Wednesday. I’m happy to ride his coattail in this spot, though, and finish off our (hopefully) winning 5-way ticket this week with an Edwards HIGHER.

You can tail the 5 picks and 20x your buy-in (on top of your $100 deposit match) when you sign up and click below with promo code LIFE!

Other Week 16 Pick'em Plays to Consider

Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of range here are some extra Week 10 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots: 

  • Jared Goff HIGHER 33.5 passing attempts (play to 33.5)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs HIGHER 21.5 receiving yards (play to 22.5)
  • Amari Cooper HIGHER 57.5 receiving yards (play to 59.5)
  • Brock Purdy HIGHER 248.5 passing yards (play to 249.5)
Underdog Pickem