Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

We went 3 for 5 last week with the picks and just missed hitting on our final two plays. Chuba Hubbard missed the HIGHER on his carry total by one and Gus Edwards went for some big runs late in the game last Monday but fell short of the 39.5 HIGHER we had on him. We still hit on a couple of tickets in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life and are now up over +78 units on the season. 

Pick'em Tracker

I’ll have more picks in the tracker as the week progresses, but for now will break down one of my main 5-way tickets for Week 17 below…

DJ Chark HIGHER than 23.5 rush/receiving yards

I really like this spot for the Panthers' passing game.

The Jaguars' defense is 24th in success rate per dropback and has yielded the fourth-most passing yards against, per game (257.1). While it didn’t amount to much before last week’s 6-98-2 explosion against Green Bay, Chark has been playing on nearly every snap for the Panthers (over 80% route rate in three straight games).

In Week 16 the heavier usage finally led to heavier targeting and Chark (8 targets) becoming the defacto number one option for Bryce Young. 

I don’t see any reason to think Chark won’t succeed in this spot either. 

The Panthers are still +6.5 underdogs and will likely have trouble running the ball against the top-rated (5th in success rate against the run) Jaguars rush defense. We have Chark projected to go for over 40 yards this week on Fantasy Life making his HIGHER one of the best edges to attack in Week 17. 

Bryce Young HIGHER than 173.5 receiving yards

While correlating the HIGHERS on a QB's passing yards and his WR’s receiving yards does reduce the payouts a little on Underdog, I’m still bullish enough on Young’s low total this week to take the hit.

Young finally showed confidence on downfield passes against Green Bay, throwing for 8.7 yards per attempt and 312 total yards in the 3-point loss. This is also the first time all season that Young has averaged 7.0 yards per attempt (or greater) in two straight games.

Bryce Young

Dec 24, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) with guard Gabe Jackson (69) and center Bradley Bozeman (56) in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

As mentioned above, this is also another spot where Carolina should be letting Young cook. Teams facing Jacksonville have thrown for under 180 yards just twice this season, and one of those games involved the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who ran for 97 yards in that contest.

With his connection with Chark growing and a weak secondary on tap, I like using Young’s HIGHER to correlate with our Chark HIGHER and complete our Carolina passing stack. 

Chris Olave HIGHER than 5.0 receptions 

Olave looks to be in a fantastic spot against Tampa Bay who has allowed the most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year.

New Orleans has also been terrible at running the ball of late (even Taysom Hill’s efficiency has dried up) and they face a Buccaneers defense that is fourth in EPA against the rush this season. With the division on the line expect the Saints to go all out and lean heavily on Olave in this spot who has landed six or more catches in six of his last nine games. 

The second-year WR comes into this week off a game against the Rams where he posted a 91% route rate and a 33% target share. Overall, he’s seen nine or more targets in six of his last nine games. 

If this total does move to 5.5 receptions on Underdog I would also have no hesitation using Olave, but with a HIGHER on his yards instead. We have Olave projected for 83.5 receiving yards this week and his upside looks limitless against this Tampa secondary. 

Rashid Shaheed HIGHER than 32.5 rush/receiving yards

Rather than pair Olave with a HIGHER on Derek Carr’s passing yards (and lower our payouts even more) the more prudent move to me is simply to target the HIGHER on Olave’s running mate, Rashid Shaheed, whose rush/rec yards total is set at an embarrassingly low 32.5 yards (as of writing). 

Shaheed has the same great matchup that Olave does and will also benefit from Olave taking away primary coverage on a lot of plays. Last week, that led to Shaheed getting behind the Rams' defense and landing a 39-yard TD pass – and going for 70 total receiving yards in the loss. The significance of last week, though, isn’t necessarily Shaheed’s production but his usage. He posted a 93% route rate, played on 82% of the snaps, and saw 9 targets – all season highs. 

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Now that he’s moved into the clear number-two receiver role his production on a week-to-week basis should be far more stable and lead to more days like we saw from him in Week 16.

Jacoby Brissett HIGHER than 230.5 passing yards

I’m going against the projections a little on our final prop, which doesn’t like Brissett’s HIGHER as much as I do. However, I also believe that Brissett’s lack of sample size is likely holding his yardage projections down a little in Week 17 as well. 

The veteran hasn’t played much in 2023 but he has averaged a healthy 9.73 yards per attempt (23 attempts) and has a 78% completion rate over the last two weeks. Perhaps most encouragingly about Brissett’s recent run is the fact that he has been able to extract more big plays from WR Terry McClaurin – who went for over 100 yards against the Rams (his first 100-yard game of the year). 

The 49ers aren’t necessarily a poor matchup either. They are dealing with multiple key injuries on defense including starting S Ji'Ayir Brown and starting CB Ambry Thomas.

Teams facing the 49ers are also averaging a healthy 37.1 pass attempts per game this season and the Commanders' defense (31st in EPA per play) is once again likely to cede a ton of big plays to the 49ers league-leading offense – making it likely that Brissett is again forced to dropback 35+ times.

You can combine the five picks for a juicy payout (20x) and get your 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you click below!

Pick'em Plays

Other Week 17 Pick'em Plays

Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of our “play to” range here are some extra Week 17 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots: 

  • Stephen Sullivan HIGHER 6.5 receiving yards (play to 7.5)
  • Adam Thielen HIGHER 42.5 receiving yards (play to 44.5)
  • Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER 67.5 receiving yards (play to 69.5)
  • Terry McLaurin HIGHER 52.5 Receiving yards (play to 54.5)
  • Saquon Barkley LOWER 64.5 rush yards (play to 63.5)
  • Matthew Stafford LOWER 257.5 passing yards (play to 255.5)
Underdog Pick'Em Plays