Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

Safe to say the picks from the article didn’t go our way last week. The Carolina passing attack regressed hard and the Saints passes all went to random receivers rather than their two primary WRs. We did hit a nice three-way pick’em play in our FREE Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, which saved the week. We are still up over +78 units on the season for all posted plays. 

Pick'em Tracker

I’ll have more picks in the tracker as the week progresses, but for now will break down one of my main 5-way tickets for Week 18 below…

As a reminder, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 on Underdog Fantasy when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

Tony Pollard HIGHER than 60.5 rushing yards 

It’s been a rough year for Tony Pollard and Tony Pollard truthers in general. Pollard wasn’t able to deliver the fantasy goods in his first full season as the Cowboys feature back and enters this game averaging just 3.01 yards per carry over his last four starts. 

Tony Pollard

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

So why target his HIGHER in Week 18? 

First and foremost is that despite his poor production of late Pollard remains the Cowboys' bellcow. He’s taken 16 or more carries in three of his last five starts and should be in for a big workload once again in Week 18 given what is at stake for Dallas (a division title) and the fact the Cowboys are -13.0 favorites. 

The Commanders are also the best matchup that Pollard has had since he faced this same Commanders team in Week 12, in a game where he put 79 yards on 13 carries (6.07 yards per carry). Washington is also now just 29th in success rate against the run on defense since Week 10 – which is when they traded away interior LB Montez Sweat. 

Despite his poor production of late we STILL have Pollard projected as a solid HIGHER target on Fantasy Life and I think that stance is very warranted. He may not be as explosive as he once was but the matchup and volume likely take him over this relatively reasonable total in Week 18. 

Drake London HIGHER than 44.5 receiving yards 

The Saints are a tough pass defense but have been more prone to giving up big plays since losing top cornerback Marshon Lattimore before Week 9. Without Lattimore in the lineup, London was able to post a 5-catch, 91-yard game against the Saints in Week 9 – which to date has been his third-biggest output (from a yardage standpoint) of the season.

There is reason to think he can do one better this week too. The Falcons seem likely to have trouble running the ball in this spot as the Saints' defensive front has allowed just 4.0 yards per carry over their last three games and ranks 5th in success rate vs the run on defense. 

London (who currently sits at 864 yards) is also within reach of his first 1000-yard season so if he gets off to a good start the incentive for him to keep playing hard and earning for targets down the stretch will be there (regardless of game script). I like playing London’s HIGHER in this spot and expect this total likely closes a few yards higher than it currently sits. 

Jahmyr Gibbs HIGHER than 51.5 rushing yards 

We don’t have Gibbs’ HIGHER projected with the biggest edge this week but I REALLY like the upside for him in this spot. The Vikings still have a shot at the playoffs but it truly feels like their season ended last week, and it wouldn’t shock me if we saw a deflated Vikings team show up on Sunday. Their defense allowed over 5.05 yards per carry to the Green Bay Packers RB unit, which was mostly led by the nearly 30-year-old Aaron Jones. This week, they face a step up in class. 

The Lions rushing attack is third in EPA per rush since Week 10 and Gibbs himself managed 80 yards on 15 carries (5.33 yards per carry) against Minnesota just a couple of weeks ago. 

The Lions have also been prepping for this matchup like it’s a regular game (even though they have little chance to move up in seeding) and feel likely to give Gibbs a big workload. Giving Gibbs the ball not only keeps Jared Goff from getting hit but it also gives Gibbs a shot at hitting 1000 rushing yards for the season, a total he’s 85 yards away from. 

I like the Lions to win big this week and, by default, I almost have to like Gibbs’ HIGHER, which is still set at a relatively low total of 50.5 yards, a number that he has cleared to the HIGHER in five of his last six games.

Josh Allen HIGHER than 243.5 passing yards 

While Buffalo enters Week 18 having won four games in a row Allen has thrown for under 240 yards in each of those games. Allen wasn’t super efficient last week but he was facing his nemesis Bill Belichick whom he has struggled against for much of his career. The week prior? Allen completed 71% of his passes and threw for 11.2 yards per attempt against the Chargers, managing 237 yards on just 21 attempts. 

This week, he faces a Miami defense that was just shredded by Lamar Jackson (321 yards, 15.0 yards per attempt) and gave up 320 yards to Allen himself in Week 4 (Allen averaged 12.4 yards per attempt that day and completed 84% of his passes). 

I’d understand anyone who shied away from this one due to the Bills' recent offensive trends but the matchup is a solid one and one our projections like for Allen as well. I'd personally play this one up to the high 240s as it seems very likely the Bills will need to rely on Allen’s arm at some point in this game just given the efficiency that Miami operates with on offense themselves.

Stefon Diggs HIGHER than 59.5 receiving tards 

Stefon Diggs started the year with five games of 100+ receiving yards in his first six starts. Then the Bills went through an offensive slump, changed coordinators and now Diggs limps into this game (figuratively speaking, he’s not injured) having gone for less than 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven starts. 

Still, in a game against a regressing Miami passing defense, with everything on the line for Buffalo (Playoffs, Division title), I can’t see Diggs not playing a huge role. Miami has had trouble limiting elite WR1s in multiple spots this season and has allowed Zay Flowers and Cee Dee Lamb – two players who act as the primary targets on their respective teams – to go for 100+ yards in consecutive weeks. The Dolphins will also likely be without top corner Xavien Howard again making it more likely Diggs will get free for a big play at some point. 

While we have to settle for slightly reduced payouts on Underdog when playing Diggs’ yards with Allen’s yards, the correlation is really strong with these two. Diggs went over this total in eight of his first nine games of the year and, in six of those games, Allen passed for 250+ yards. I like pairing the two and using the QB/WR correlation to strengthen the backend of our Week 18 card. 

You can tail the 5-pick Pick'em for a payout of over 15x AND get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

5-Pick Pick'em

Other Week 18 Pick'em Plays

Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of our “play to” range here are some extra Week 17 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots: 

Underdog Pick'em