Welcome to the weekly Underdog Fantasy Pick’m article. If you’re looking for a place where you can hang and read about some of the sweet Higher/Lower and Rivals lines that Underdog puts out every week for the NFL season, you have come to the right place!
Every week we’ll go through the Underdog pick’em lines and try to put together a selection of winners using our wit, guile and mostly the awesome Fantasy Life weekly projections that you can find, FOR FREE, on our site.
If you already know lots about Underdog and are a grizzled veteran of the pick’em streets, please bypass this next part and get right to the picks – which I want you to critique vehemently before ultimately tailing.
However, if you’re new to Underdog and are wondering what the heck a pick’em is, I’ve got a little primer for you below.
What is a Pick’em?
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best-ball tournaments and their snake draft format…
…but did you know they also offer single-player daily fantasy pick ‘em contests?
These work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100 plus a mystery Pick'em special. Just sign up using our link or by entering promo code LIFE below:
Now, let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season…
Diontae Johnson over 52.5 receiving yards
Obviously, if we like Pickett to have an above-average passing day, his success would almost certainly mean that some of his receivers end up having decent days as well.
Diontae Johnson is one of those receivers and perhaps the primary one who would benefit from a big week 1 from his QB. Despite his TD-less 2022, he remains an elite route runner who is fantastic at getting himself open – exemplified best by his elite team target share from preseason.
I fully expect the Steelers to try and counteract the 49ers' pass rush with plenty of quick looks to Johnson. He’s exactly the kind of shifty, versatile WR SF’s secondary tends to struggle with – shoutout Greg Dortch who “Dortched” the 49ers for 103 yards in week 11 of last season.
Regardless of your thoughts on Pickett, if he does perform in this game, it’s hard to see Johnson not having a banner day, making his higher an easy add to any pick’em ticket that also includes a Pickett higher.
I would play this up to 53.5 receiving yards.
DJ Moore over 48.5 yards
This line feels a little blasphemous.
With DJ Moore, we are talking about a WR who ranks fifth in all-time receiving yards gained before the age of 26. And now, he’s on a team that desperately wants to use his incredible YAC ability to expand the 1920s-style offense they ran last season.
And as Moore’s preseason showed us, all it might take for him to get us the higher in Week 1 is one screen pass.
A matchup against Green Bay doesn’t necessarily look ideal on paper. But the Packers are dealing with injuries in their secondary (Eric Stokes is out), and Moore has been here before. During both of his previous matchups with Green Bay, he matched up against CB Jaire Alexander. And, both times, he still posted over 120 receiving yards for the game.
While past performance is obviously no guarantee of future outcomes, it’s hard to see Moore not dominating the target share in this game. Even our very conservative projections for him in Week 1 have him as a solid higher target on both his receiving yards and receptions – although, as indicated, if push came to shove, I’d simply take the yards.
I would play this up to 50.5 receiving yards.
Rachaad White over 19.5 receiving yards
White is primed to see heavy usage from the get-go this year after the Buccaneers decided not to add anyone of significance at the draft or in free agency to bolster their RB depth. Yes, it’s possible talented UDFA Sean Tucker may take away a bit of the early down work as we get into mid-season, but for Week 1, you should expect it to be the Rachaad White show – especially on passing downs.
The second-year back showcased high-end pass-catching tendencies in year one securing 50 out of 58 targets last season. While the efficiency from a yardage perspective wasn’t great, it’s important to remember that he no longer has veteran Leonard Fourtnette to compete with for targets and will likely be used better in space by new OC Dave Canales than he was last season.
Aug 26, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Kyle Trask (2) hands the ball off to running back Rachaad White (1) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
The Vikings are also a great upside opponent for a player of White’s abilities as they have a weaker linebacker core and generally like to operate at a fast pace on offense – leading to plenty of offensive snaps for their opponent.
While going over the 47.5 rushing total is almost as appealing, the receiving aspect is where I expect White to shine the most.
I would play this up to 19.5 receiving yards.
Dallas Goedert over 40.5 receiving yards
Goedert went over 40.0 receiving yards in 11 of the 15 games he played last season and should be in line for his usual 18-20% team target share against New England. The Patriots set up to be a top run-stopping unit once again in 2023 and drafted a corner in the first round this year in Christian Gonzalez, making the middle of the field the potential soft spot to attack in the passing game for the Eagles.
Goedert ranked third in yards per catch among all TEs last season and brings elite YAC ability making him a great higher target – on a lower number like this – given he can theoretically hit the higher for us on one or two plays.
The Fantasy Life projections have this one targeted as a strong over as well, with Goedert projected for over 44.0 receiving yards in Week 1. With all of the other big names in this game, the number on Goedert may not move much before kickoff making it a solid one to build tickets around.
I would play this up to 41.5 receiving yards.
You can combine the four picks above to get yourself the 10x Pick'em payout below:
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