While the 2024 NFL season kickoff is technically in our rear-view mirror after consecutive nights with a primetime game, we're still awaiting kickoff of our first full NFL DFS slate.

With the 12-game Sunday slate around the corner, I've combed through the DraftKings NFL DFS slate to provide a high-level overview of how you should approach the slate.

Below are my top stack, value picks, tournament targets, and fades.

Be sure to utilize our NFL DFS Projections to help guide your decision-making. If you're interested in dabbling in College Football DFS this weekend, we have projections for that as well, available here.

We also have the rest of your DFS weekend covered with our DFS Pick'em Tool, which helps you build the most +EV pick'em combinations on Underdog, DraftKings PIck6, and Sleeper.

Top NFL DFS Stack on DraftKings

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were a top 5 offense in 2023, fueled by the innovative play-calling of Mike McDaniels and the game-breaking force of Tyreek Hill. There was very little turnover for the Dolphins offense, giving plenty of reason to believe they will once again push for the highest-scoring team in the league.

As more justification of their upside as a stack, they have the second-highest team total on the week at 26.75 and are projected for the third-most total touchdowns at 2.91.

For reference, here is how the models at Paydirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:

A screenshot of a computer Description automatically generated

In 2023, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 50% of the team targets and 65% of the team air yards. We love to target skinny target trees like this because it gives us a lot of confidence in securing the scoring for a team. Having them combined in the stack makes for the highest upside combo on the slate.

It is worth saying, however, that the next highest overall median for MIA that does not have Waddle is Tua/Tyreek/Jonnu Smith and projects for just 43.62 fantasy points, the 12th highest on the slate. So, if you are going to stack MIA, it makes a lot of sense to pay up and get the studs while filling in with value around them.

Top Week 1 NFL DFS Value Plays

RB: Chase Brown, Bengals

With a projection of 12.72 and a salary of just $5,000 on DraftKings, Brown is one of the best values on the board at his position.

The projection is a product of a healthy team total (24.25 at the time of writing) and a great projected game script as eight-point favorites over the Patriots.

Granted, there is some uncertainty around his role and the Bengals offense as a whole with the statuses of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins up in the air. Still, with less offensive firepower around him, that should only increase his floor as a receiver and lock him in as a strong value option.

WR: Christian Kirk, Jaguars

On the other side of the top stack, we have Christian Kirk, who should lead the way for the Jaguars in a high-octane environment.

Kirk is priced at $5,500 and projects for 14.54 DK points with a ceiling of 30.48, giving him a 4x rate (the percentage of simulations he finishes at 4 times his salary) of 17.60%.

He does projects for some ownership (around 13% at the time of writing), but makes the cut as good chalk and is a fair option as a bring-back to MIA stacks in all formats.

TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders, Panthers

I am not exactly stoked to roster any Panthers this year, but when it comes to the TE position, it’s always worthwhile to look at the min-priced guys with a path to volume.

Sanders meets that bill here at $2,500 and projects for a median of 8.33 fantasy points. Our projections have him for around 5 targets and 3 catches for 28 yards, which would be plenty to justify his price. If he falls into the endzone on one of those catches, he could be a GPP-winning value.

Top Week 1 GPP Plays on DraftKings

RB: Bijan Robinson, Falcons

This is a pretty easy one to write up: Robinson projects for nearly four points higher than any other RB in the projections, and in the simulations from Paydirt, he's finishing as the top-scoring option 23% of the time. The second-highest mark in those simulations goes to Jonathan Taylor at just 7.20% of the time, showing how large that gap really is.

He’s expensive, but that just helps him as a GPP play since the field is likely to be paying up at WR and ignoring the premium RB options. He’s a turnkey, easy-button option in all fields.

WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings

Tyreek Hill is likely to pull in between 20-30% ownership depending on the contest you are playing, while Justin Jefferson is projected for less than 10% ownership.

People are concerned that he won’t be able to perform without Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball, but Sam Darnold has shown himself to be a gunslinger at times in his career.

We have Jefferson projected for 8.67 receptions and 82.76 receiving yards while Tyreek is at 9.15 and 79.35, so the differences in ownership really don't make any sense. Jefferson is a premier large-field GPP option.

TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals

There are a couple of different ways you can go with TE in GPPs, but I think McBride makes the most sense as a target if you can afford him.

He’s the most expensive option on the board at the position, but he comes with the highest projection (13.83), top finish rate (24.20%), and very low ownership at just 2.59% projected. He also makes for an awesome stacking piece with a BUF/ARI game stack, which is one of the games with the highest upside environment.

One of my favorite theoretical stacks is Josh Allen/Curtis Samuel/Dalton Kincaid with McBride in the Flex, which makes for a super unique build with plenty of upside.

Top NFL DFS Fades for Week 1

Probably the worst current chalk is either Rachaad White or Kenneth Walker, both projected for around 20% ownership.

Neither one of these guys projects well enough as a value to command that level of ownership and is mostly getting steamed because of their low $6,000-range price tags.

People are clicking them based on volume and availability when stacking expensive WRs. In general, we do like to pay down for RBs with volume, but it feels like doing so this week comes at an opportunity cost.

For instance, we have Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and even Jaleel McLaughlin as better values per 4x rate, all at less than half the ownership of White and Walker.

Overall, I think you want to avoid them and focus on better ownership around the WRs and stacks.