Week 10 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.

I'm looking at them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 10 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades. 

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.

Top NFL DFS Stack On DraftKings For Week 10

Minnesota Vikings

Here is how the models at Paydirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:

QB+2 stacks

 

Vikings stacks show up as the top median/ceiling combo overall for all the QB+2 options from the simulations and come in $3,500 less expensive than the PHI stack at #2. Granted, their top finish rate is a tad lower at 8.8% compared to the next three options, but that is mitigated by the value overall.

The matchup with the Jaguars has been worth exploiting for the better part of the year. They are allowing a boost of 2.7 PPR points above average to TEs and 6.2 PPR points above average to WRs. The only “downside” of facing them is that they are so bad that they don’t put up much of a fight and their PPMOE is below average, meaning they play at a slower pace. Overall, individual WRs have been feasting against them.

While the Vikings' passing volume has been less than stellar (+2.0% DBOE, -9.8% PPMOE) they have been very efficient. It’s worth exploiting the price tags here for a strong foundation in a great matchup.

NFL DFS Value Plays For Week 10

QB: Sam Darnold ($6,200)

Another week of NFL action means another chance for me to mispronounce Sam Darnold’s name on a podcast. Fortunately, Darnold is in a fantastic position this week against the Jaguars, who allow 6.4 PPR points above average to opposing QBs and give up 21.8 raw PPR points per game to the position. Although it's been a rougher stretch lately for the Vikings' QB, he has managed to score 20+ PPR points in 33% of his games, even with limited volume, while maintaining an impressive aDOT of over 9.3 and a YPA of 8.52, placing him in the league's top five.

His median and ceiling projections stand at 19.47 and 34.20 PPR points, respectively, giving him a 4x rate of 8.40%, the second-best on the slate overall.

WR: Josh Downs ($6,200)

With no Michael Pittman available for week 10, the Colts are going to deploy Josh Downs as the WR1 with a mix of Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell as WR2/3. While I think there is some nice upside to be had on Adonai, it makes sense to take advantage of Downs in this spot based on medians. Even with Pittman available, we have seen Downs maintain a 27% target share along with 35% of the 3rd and 4th down targets for the team. We can reasonably expect to see a couple points of increase there along with a jump in air yards. His median and ceiling show as 14.83 and 32.39, respectively, along with a position-leading 14.40% 4x rate.

TE: Cade Otton ($5,500)

Over the last three weeks, Cade Otton has been averaging 22.6 PPR points per game (his season-long mark is 12.0) along with an 88% route participation, 26% of the target share, and 36% of the endzone targets. His Utilization Score over that time is a 9.9! He is playing at the highest level for the position and is priced in the secondary tier. While I think the matchup with the 49ers is generally difficult, I don’t think it matters when the usage is this good. Until Mike Evans returns, I think you have to be jamming Otton if they are going to price him under $6k. Terrific option in all formats.

DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Plays For Week 10

RB: D’Andre Swift ($6,500)

Swift has had an up-and-down season, but his strong route participation and explosiveness help him maintain a solid floor and ceiling. His rush percentage surged to 80% last week, and with Khalil Herbert out, he’s likely to keep more than his usual 62%. His Utilization Score of 7.9 is in the range of guys like De’Von Achane, Aaron Jones, and JK Dobbins, giving him solid company and expectations. This week, he faces a favorable matchup against the Patriots, who allow 23.6 PPR points per game to opposing RBs and 3.7 opportunities (rushes + targets) above average. His median and ceiling projections of 18.58 and 35.60 PPR points, respectively, make him a solid play for a running back in his range.

WR: Justin Jefferson ($8,800)

Justin Jefferson has the best matchup, median, and top finish rate on the slate, therefore he’s a top priority. His usage is elite, ranking third in the league with a 33% target share, a 13.4 aDOT, and 47% of his team’s air yards—giving him enormous potential and plenty of chances to dominate a slate. The Vikings face the Jaguars, who allow 6.3 PPR points above average to opposing WRs, setting Jefferson’s expected output at an impressive 27.9. His median and ceiling projections of 22.08 and 45.47 lead the board, with the next highest WR median at just 17.35. Even if you don’t end up stacking the Vikings, you should look to utilize Jefferson where you have the salary.

TE: Evan Engram ($5,300)

I really don’t like the TE position this week; it feels pretty difficult to nail down any individual spot above the rest. Because of this, I think forcing some sort of correlation to your stack is the best way to go. Since we are stacking the Vikings, using Evan Engram as a game-stack piece makes a lot of sense and takes up the priority position for us. And it’s not like Engram doesn’t project well! He has a median of 14.00 and a 20+ rate of 27.10%. Through 5 games he has a Utilization Score of 7.4, above guys like Goedert and Njoku. Mac Jones (backup for JAX) was plenty serviceable for NE before everything fell apart, and I think he has plenty of capacity to feed Engram to a high PPR outcome. He’s not without risk, but I like him a lot this week.

NFL DFS Fades For Week 10

Here are the results looking at all players within $500 and three median points of Deebo Samuel:

Players near <a target=

 

While I think that the 49ers are a strong enough stack and I think that Samuel is a bit underpriced, he is not so underpriced that he deserves the lofty ownership projection we have for him at the moment. At 30%+ owned in larger fields, he would have to be far and away the most valuable option in this price range, and he’s not even the highest projected overall.

I think that taking George Pickens in a strong game environment straight up is a great pivot off of Deebo if this ownership holds true. If you don’t want to pivot off Deebo, I think that’s fair, but there are a lot of options with similar expectations that would give you way better relative value.