Week 11 NFL DFS Picks: GPP Plays, Value Plays, and More
Week 11 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 11 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 11
San Francisco 49ers
Here is how the models at Paydirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:
Even without going into detail on San Fran as a great stacking option, it’s pretty easy to see why you should play them. All three of their QB+2 options show up in the top 5 stacks for the slate based on median projections and ceilings.
With a team total of 29.00, they have the second-best expectation from the markets on the slate, and to go with that, each of the stacks projects for less than $20,000. That’s important this week as there is a stark lack of value across the positions, which means value at our stack is monumentally important. We can see that we have that with 49ers QB+2s here as their 3x and 4x rates are the second-best on the slate behind New England stacks (gross).
We also have Christian McCaffrey back, who will keep ownership low and grab ownership himself. This represents a nice spot to gain relative value and leverage on the field through a natural pivot to the passing game.
Overall, while I think both SF and BAL stacks have value, I’ll side with the 49ers thanks to the team total and overall game environment.
NFL DFS Value Plays For Week 11
QB: Drake Maye
Note that I would have written up Brock Purdy here, he is the true best value at QB on the slate, but I don’t think that’s necessary after writing up SF in the stacks. Instead, I’ll side with Drake Maye, who has the second-best 4x rate on the slate and has some intriguing baselines we could exploit.
I don’t hear many people talking about it, but Maye is a pretty elusive guy and has the third-highest scramble rate in the league at 12%. Through 6 games he has 233 rushing yards (9.3 yards per attempt) and a touchdown, which is, for all intents and purposes, a really nice rushing floor. You don’t have many guys who are this cheap who give rushing stats as well, and NE should be in a position to push the envelope this week.
I think Maye makes for an interesting large-field GPP option, especially when used in a QB+1 stack.
WR: Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers is an excellent value play due to his WR1 usage since Week 3 and a price that hasn't caught up to his production. He's averaged 15.6 PPR points with a significant share of targets (30%) and air yards (37%), providing a high floor and considerable upside. While poor quarterback play and a low team total might limit his overall ceiling potential, his affordable price mitigates the issues there.
With a median projection of 15.22, a ceiling of 33.02, and the highest 4x rate among WRs (19.30%), Meyers offers a terrific combination of safety and upside.
TE: Jonnu Smith
All of MIA is in a great spot this week up against the lowly Raiders, but Smith is the one with the most exploitable price tag and makes for the biggest priority.
As noted above in the stacks section, there is a lack of value this week, so we should be looking to find it at positions like TE and DST that have generally lower ceilings. Jonnu has had a good role (for this price) all year, pushing between a 15-25% target share along with around 20% of the air yards. He has had 4 games with 9.6+ PPR points, and while he hasn’t had any endzone targets, that is more a consequence of the Dolphins being awful and opportunities in the redzone being scarce. Smith makes for a good value on this slate and a great stacking piece with Tua/Tyreek.
Week 11 NFL DFS GPP Plays
RB: Kyren Williams
While I certainly understand that a healthy Rams squad is going to break up the scoring equity, I think that people are overlooking Kyren Williams in this spot. The matchup with New England is awesome, allowing 5.4 PPR points above average to opposing RBs as well as an aggregate of 24.6 PPR points to the position. And regarding the team being healthy, while that does split up the equities, it also leads to more efficiency, which in turn leads to more touchdown opportunities, and there isn’t a single RB in the league with a better usage rate inside the five-yard line.
With a median/ceiling combo of 18.56/34.67 and ownership that should settle around 10%, we should be looking for Kyren to have strong relative value in GPPs.
Nov 11, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) carries the ball against the Miami Dolphins in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
WR: Jameson Williams
Unfortunately, as soon as I started writing this blurb Sam LaPorta was ruled out, which is going to lead to a chunk more ownership for Williams. That said, he’s an awesome play in this game environment and it’s hard to argue with him, even at 20% owned.
The Lions have a team total of 31 points, the highest on the slate, which means ample opportunity to anyone with TD equity on the team.
Moreover, their matchup with the Jaguars lends itself better to WR ceilings than RB ceilings with increases of 5.2 PPR points and 35 receiving yards above opponent averages. Jameson Williams is underpriced for this game environment, matchup, and role with no LaPorta.
TE: Travis Kelce
While it was a really weak start to the year for Kelce, he has come alive in the last three weeks and is now one of the best options in the midrange for week 11. He has now surpassed 20+ PPR points in three straight games where he had a target share above 30% and 40%+ of the air yards for the Chiefs. He has had 5 games this year with a Utilization Score of 9.0+, all coming in his last six games.
When looking at WRs, he would be the WR9 overall in median with a price tag around $1,000 too low. He is a prime pay-up at TE and a strong option in the flex this week.
Player To Avoid in Week 11 NFL DFS
I have no reason to put up a display image for this, but you should not play Kayshon Boutte at 20% owned. At least not as a one-off.
Boutte has put up more than 10 PPR points just once this season. There’s no reason to think that he has a ceiling of more than about 15 PPR points, and he is priced effectively for that ceiling. He is gaining ownership simply because the pricing is tight this week, and that is never a reason to jam in a bad play.
The only way that you should consider him is in a QB+1 with Drake Maye. Otherwise, this is an easy fade in all formats.
For more edge on the Week 11 DFS slate, check out our NFL DFS Projections!
