Week 12 NFL DFS Picks: Top Stacks, Value Plays, and More
Week 12 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 12 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 12
Denver Broncos
Normally I would display the top 5 QB+2 stacks here, but the Broncos don’t fit into that mold. The Broncos this week represent a really interesting combo of value and upside that I don’t think is captured especially well in the models, but is worth buying into.
Bo Nix has broken out in the last couple of games. He now has four games this season with 20+ PPR points as well as two games, both in his last five starts, with 28+ PPR points. He’s averaging 18.3 PPR points per game (right behind Jayden Daniels at 18.4) and doing so on good passing volume and a 20% rush rate. You get all of this for just $6,300!
Likewise, you can pair him with Courtland Sutton, who has a 37% 3x rate in the Paydirt simulations and has some terrific baselines. Since week 8, he is averaging 30% of the targets, 46% of the air yards, and 25% of the endzone targets along with a Utilization Score of 9.4. He has been a top 5 WR in the league in this sample and is priced at just $5,800.
I think that going for a QB+1 here using Nix + Sutton in larger field GPPs gives you an awesome base for a lineup with plenty of upside and a lot of salary to spend at other premium positions.
NFL DFS Value Plays For Week 12
QB: Tommy DeVito
Now, to be fair, I do not think that Tommy DeVito is good. In fact, I think he is very much not good. He is legitimately bad. However, he is also the stone minimum price on Draftkings at $4,000, and it’s really hard to pass that up. Especially considering he gets to throw to Malik Nabers ($7,200), it makes for a similar QB+1 outlined with Nix+Sutton but for even less money. Currently, NYG has a team total of 18.00, and we should expect it to stay there or drop, but you don’t need a lot from DeVito to pay off. He is projected for 14-15 PPR points, and if he scores 20 he has crushed this price tag. He’s worth a flier in an MME set or the Milly Maker.
RB: De'Von Achane
Achane continues to hold a relatively low price tag in DFS even though the Dolphins' offense is starting to get back on track. Since week 8 he is averaging 22.4 PPR points on 51% of the rushing attempts and a 12% target share. This week he gets the added bonus of facing the Patriots, who are allowing a PPR boost of +4.5 above average to opposing RBs. He makes for a high-expectation play with a massive ceiling and should be a foundation in lineups that are not dedicated to MIA stacks.
Nov 17, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) celebrates a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
TE: Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers could end up breaking the record for the most targets by a rookie this year (set by Puka Nacua) and is still priced in the low $6k range because TE pricing is broken. He’s pushing 26% of the team targets along with 24% of the air yards and 18% of the endzone targets while averaging 15.9 PPR points. Since week 8, he is averaging 19.2 PPR points on 29% of the targets! He also pairs very nicely with the suggested stack of Nix + Sutton as a game-level correlation at a premium position or as a flex play. He’s an awesome option overall.
Week 12 NFL DFS GPP Plays
RB: James Conner
Conner has been ultra-consistent for the better part of two years, and it makes him easy to overlook. However, he’s got a great spot and some strong medians this week that we should take advantage of. At $6,500 he has a projection of 18.18 and a ceiling of 34.88, both increases with his PPR average being around 14.80. While the Seahawks are not a boost (or nerf) to baselines, they do play at the fastest pace in the league, which leads to more opportunities for scoring. Considering all of this and a relatively low ownership projection, I like Conner as a plug-and-play in week 12.
WR: Jakobi Meyers
Last week was the worst outcome for Meyers since week 4 (when Davante Adams jumped ship), but it’s not going to deter me or the models from going back to the well. He had a 14% target share along with just 17% of the air yards, but those are way worse than his averages of 27% and 36% in the sample. At $5,100, he is cheap enough that the downside is mitigated, and similarly to Brock Bowers, he can be deployed as part of a game stack correlation with the Broncos QB+1. Meyers and his 4x rate of 27.50% should be a big piece of your player pool as a value on this slate.
TE: Jonnu Smith
After dominating as the TE value play I wrote up last week, we are going to get some more exposure this week. Jonnu did not see his price tag rise near enough, up to just $4,100, for someone who has a major role in the Dolphins' offense. Over the last 4 weeks, he is seeing 19% of the targets on a healthy 6.1 aDOT and averaging 12.1 PPR points. He makes for a key pairing with Tua and Tyreek as a QB+2 if you are fading DeVon Achane in GPPs. While I don’t expect him to have another 50+ yard TD catch, I do think that 4-7 targets and good TD equity on a team with a high implied total is worth rostering in all formats.
Players To Avoid in Week 12 NFL DFS
There are no easy button fades this week, unfortunately. We do have three players who show up in the Pivot Finder (a tool at Paydirtdfs.com) as having pivots eligible at their positions, but they are less than we would prefer to attack:
There are only three worthwhile pivots for Sutton and Jennings, and both project well enough that we should still consider them. If you wanted to get off of Brian Robinson for Rachaad White, I think that would be my choice.
Overall, this week is less about direct pivots and much more about roster construction.
