Week 13 NFL DFS Picks: Stack Rams With Colts Value
We have a 10-game main slate on tap and James McCool is here with his Week 13 NFL DFS picks to guide you through the slate:
The Week 13 Sunday slate is around the corner, and, as always, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 13 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 13
Los Angeles Rams
Here are how the models over at Paydirtdfs.com view the top 5 QB+2s on the slate:
While the Rams don’t have the #1 overall median here, they do have a very close second place. Importantly, they do so while being $1400 cheaper than the CIN stack at the top along with similar baselines for the receivers involved.
Over the last four weeks, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are combining for 56% of the targets, 56% of the air yards, and 47% of the endzone targets for the Rams. They are averaging 21.3 and 16.7 PPR points, respectively, and hold Utilization Scores of 8.9 and 7.8 in that sample.
Likewise, at the team level, the Rams are passing more since getting their star duo back. On the season their DBOE is -2%, meaning they are passing less than they should, but over the last four games they sit at +1% and have games of +4 and +5%.
With the team trending towards more passing and the option to utilize both of their pass-catching options in the QB+2, the Rams are one of the best stacks on the slate.
Week 13 NFL DFS Value Picks
We got a nice little price drop for Anthony Richardson after he scored just 12 PPR points last week. Over the last two games since he returned as the starter, we have seen Richardson be much more efficient. His completion percentage in those games is 53% vs. 47% for the season and his yards per attempt have seen a slight bump.
On top of that, he continues to have an incredible rush attempt rate at 33% in the sample (only 16% season-long) which gives him a terrific floor for a QB. Granted, it’s a short sample, but we should be on the lookout for increases like this. I love Richardson as a cheap GPP option paired with …
WR: Adonai Mitchell
While Mitchell isn’t going to be low-owned, he’s an incredible play regardless. A lot of the time when a top WR goes down it’s kind of hard to figure out who steps up, but Mitchell is a legit star in the making. Of all WRs to run 100 routes or more this year, Adonai Mitchell ranks 6th in TPRR just behind Nico Collins. He has an aDOT of 14.2 and 16% of the endzone targets for the Colts despite running just 37% of the routes. There’s an argument to be made that he should be able to just step right into Josh Downs' shoes here. He’s at least $1,500 underpriced and should be a priority in all fields.
RB: Chase Brown
This is just a clear misprice, I’m not really sure what happened here. Since Week 7, Chase Brown has a Utilization Score of 9.2 and is averaging 17.8 PPR points per game and is only behind Bijan Robinson in role.
In the Paydirt Range of Outcomes model, he has the fifth-best projection at 19.00 PPR points and is right between Saquon Barkley ($8,500) and Breece Hall ($7,500) while he is priced at $6,200.
Not much more to say there, just lock him in and move along.
Top NFL DFS GPP Picks For Week 13
RB: Jonathan Taylor
I know there’s a lot of focus on the Colts players here, but I think all of it is warranted based on the matchup and game script. Jonathan Taylor is projected at somewhere around 10% owned and is in a spot where he could go crazy. The Patriots allow 35.5 yards above average to opposing RBs along with 3.7 extra opportunities and an overall PPR boost of 4.2 points.
Taylor had 21 and 24 carries in Weeks 10 and 11 along with a handful of targets but couldn’t make the most of it so people aren’t paying attention to him right now. He’s a great, low-owned option if you aren’t using Anthony Richardson at QB.
WR: Tee Higgins
While most people think of Ja’Marr Chase when they hear “Bengals” it’s worth making room for Higgins who has been phenomenal this year. Since Week 7, Higgins has a 93% route participation along with 30% of the targets and an aDOT of 14.9. For the entire season that is the highest aDOT of any WR with a 26%-plus target share.
Similar to the Courtland Sutton play of last week, Higgins is at least $1,000 underpriced at $6,600 on DraftKings and should be considered one of, if not the best midrange option at WR. He’s going to carry some ownership, but I am fine with eating it here.
TE: Cade Otton
While we saw a pretty stark drop in target share in Week 12 for Otton, I don’t think it’s something that will stick. He would from gone from having four straight weeks of a 20%-plus target share to just 11%. Some of that is the return of Mike Evans, but the majority of it was game script and circumstance.
While most people look at CAR as a great RB matchup, they are also one of the best TE matchups, giving up 5.5 PPR points above average and 16.9 receiving yards above average to the position. Otton shouldn’t be expected to be the WR1 anymore, so the price drop is warranted, but he is still priced below expectation. He’s a valuable option in all formats.
Should You Fade The Chalk In Week 13?
There is not a single player in the top 10 in projected ownership that looks like a strong fade. This week has a lot of mispriced options and that is going to lead to high scores and a lot of 2v2s for trophies.
Look to build around the chalk in unique ways and find direct leverage by doing things like stacking the team of a popular RB or vice-versa.
