Week 14 NFL DFS Picks: Top Stack, Value Plays, and More
We have a shorter-than-usual main slate on tap and James McCool is here with his Week 14 NFL DFS picks to guide you through the slate:
The Week 14 Sunday slate is around the corner, and, as always, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 14 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 14
San Francisco 49ers
Here are how the models over at Paydirtdfs.com view the top 5 QB+2s on the slate:
When looking at this group, I think it’s pretty easy to make a decision between:
- Paying up for PHI and their 29.50 team total against CAR
- Paying down for SF with their 24.25 team total and condensed workload
Based on the slate dynamics at work here, I think the better choice in most contests is going to be paying down for SF. With no Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense becomes more reliant on explosive passing plays, which Purdy has no issue making happen. With Jennings and Kittle projected for 50% of the targets and priced at $11k as a combo, it makes this QB+2 accessible while not giving up the ceiling we need to win GPPs.
The added benefit here is that their opponent, the Bears, have been one of the hotter offenses in the league over the last 3 weeks. This game environment is just too good to be priced so low.
Week 14 NFL DFS Value Picks
QB: Will Levis
To be clear, I don’t really love Titans stacks. When you sort the models over at Paydirt by 4x rate, they don’t show up very high even at a bargain price and their team total is middling. However, Will Levis is cheap enough that he makes a lot of things work. At $5,000 he allows you to fit the likes of Alvin Kamara and A.J. Brown (more on them later) while still maintaining a decent median expectation at QB. Over the last 5 weeks, Levis has averaged 17.5 PPR points with a 19% designed rush rate, which gives him a great floor. He’s a fine option for cash games and SE contests as a QB+1 with Chig Okonkwo or Calvin Ridley.
WR: Jauan Jennings
Piggybacking on the SF stack recommendation, you are going to be able to get a lot of expected value out of Jennings this week. He is projected for a 27% target share along with 74 yards receiving, which is right in line with his performances for Weeks 10 and 11 where he put up 16.3 and 25.1 PPR points. His aDOT with no McCaffrey goes from around 7.5 all the way to 12.5, making each target considerably more valuable. He is too cheap for the circumstances and should be on your radar in all formats.
Dec 1, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings (15) tries to outrun Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson (7) after making a catch in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
RB: Isaac Guerendo
And if you aren’t sold on the SF stack this week, may I interest you in a $5,400 RB that should demand 75% of the RB touches? Guerendo is an interesting prospect who should get all the work he can handle in this matchup with no McCaffrey or Jordan Mason active.
In week 8, Guerendo had his best market share of the season (14 carries and 21 routes) and put up 19.2 PPR points, so we should expect him to respond to a full complement exceptionally well. Not to mention the Bears are an above-average matchup for RBs, giving up 3.2 PPR points above average to the opposition. He’s a lock and load in cash games and a very strong play in GPPs if you don’t have SF stacks.
Top NFL DFS GPP Picks For Week 14
RB: Alvin Kamara
Kamara is, for all intents and purposes, the last man standing in New Orleans. With Taysom Hill falling to a knee injury in week 13, there are no other dynamic options for the Saints and no one to siphon the goal line work. Because of this, Paydirt has Kamara projected for 35%+ ownership and a median projection of 24.53 PPR points. Considering his price is just $8,000 and he has a Utilization Score of 9.6, the highest in the league, you are almost forced to play him in this circumstance. Especially when paired with a cheaper stack, Kamara will give you all the upside you need to win the week.
WR: A.J. Brown
It is certainly fair to say that A.J. Brown has downside relative to his expectations. The Eagles are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league and more so in the 4th quarter than any other team, so volume is a concern. But with a 34% target share (2nd highest) and 51% of the air yards for PHI, if they erupt he is going to be the main beneficiary through the air.
That said, the Eagles are in a position to stomp the Panthers this week, and if they put up the 30 points their team total is implying, it’s very likely we see A.J. Brown with 100+ and 1-2 TDs. What makes it all the better is he projects for less than 10% ownership, making him as good of a play from a relative value standpoint as he is from a raw upside perspective.
TE: Trey McBride
This is a fun week because I get to write up guys like A.J. Brown and Trey McBride, arguably the best of their respective positions, at low ownership. McBride has been a top 3 option in terms of PPR upside all year, with 5 games over 15 PPR points and two of his last three over 20. He continues to push a target share of 28% and has been getting a lot of endzone work lately with a 50% share in three of his last five.
He projects as the TE2 and WR4 on the slate this week at just $6,100, so slotting him into the flex is entirely reasonable as he is $2,000 underpriced.
