Week 15 NFL DFS Picks: Top Stack, Value Plays, and More
We have a full main slate on tap and James McCool is here with his Week 15 NFL DFS picks to guide you through the slate:
The Week 15 Sunday slate is around the corner, and, as always, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 15 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 15
Cleveland Browns
Here are how the models over at Paydirtdfs.com view the top 5 QB+2s on the slate:
Even if I didn’t break anything else down, you can see from the medians and salaries involved in QB+2s over at Paydirt that Cleveland is a very intriguing spot. With a salary cost of just $16,700, the combo of Winston/Jeudy/Moore has one of the highest median projections and ceilings of any QB+2 available. They have the third-highest top finish rate at 13.50% with the only mediocre metric being a team total of 20.50.
To make things even sweeter for this combo, Njoku and Tillman are out for the week, meaning that we get an even skinnier target tree for Jeudy and Moore. If you wanted to get a little extra value, you could go with Winston/Jeudy/Atkins and leverage Njoku being out. That combo only costs $14,400 and has a 4x rate of 13.90% along with a median of 45.32.
Week 15 NFL DFS Value Picks
RB: James Conner
James Conner is never a sexy name to click, but it’s worth considering him as a value this week for a couple of reasons.
While he doesn’t command a true bell cow role, he does have a season Utilization Score of 7.6 that jumps to 8.1 since week 8. He consistently runs 50%+ of the routes and has around 61% of the rushing attempts for the team. He also has a strong share of the inside-the-five attempts with a 67% rate. Averaging 15.9 PPR points per game and in a slightly positive matchup against the Patriots, I think you should look to Conner in the midrange for smaller fields and single-entry contests.
WR: Jerry Jeudy
From Week 1 through Week 9, Jerry Jeudy averaged 9 PPR points per game on 19% of the targets, 31% of the air yards, and 37% of the endzone targets. Since Week 10, however, he is averaging 24.1 PPR points per game. Interestingly, he is doing that on just about the same base stats.
The big difference is the Browns offense is supercharged by the IDGAF engine that is Jameis Winston. His 22% target share over the last 4 weeks is good for 8.8 targets (118 air yards) per game while the 19% share through Week 9 was only at 6.6 and 85 air yards. His recent performances and the improvement of the Browns offense put them in a terrific position this week.
Dec 2, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (3) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
TE: Pat Freiermuth
Over the last two weeks, Freiermuth has averaged 16.3 PPR points per game on 18% of the targets and 24% of the air yards. Importantly, Freiermuth runs very high-efficiency routes and has 3.54 of his 3.69 targets per game deemed catchable.
With no George Pickens, we saw Russell Wilson default to Freiermuth more frequently last week, and with an opponent that should push them this week, he will be needed. Freiermuth isn’t elite, but he is better than the price suggests and makes for a strong value play in all formats.
Top NFL DFS GPP Picks For Week 15
RB: Breece Hall
We aren’t sure of Hall’s status this week, but man, you have got to love this spot if he plays. In 12 games played this year, Hall has a Utilization Score of 8.7 with 15.9 PPR points per game. He has a 64% route participation leading to a 15% target share and a whopping 88% of the inside-the-five carries. He is at least $1,000 underpriced for his role and gets one of the best possible matchups for an RB against JAX, giving up 5.9 PPR points above average.
He has a great chance to score 20+ PPR points (24.50% per the Paydirt range of outcomes model) and should be on everyone’s radar if he plays.
WR: CeeDee Lamb
Over the last five games, Lamb is averaging 14.2 PPR points per game. In week 14, he had 21.4 PPR points with 25% of the targets, 26% of the air yards, and a Utilization Score of 8.3.
Now, granted, the Cowboys' offense isn’t pushing down the field right now, as evidenced by an aDOT of just 6.3 over the last five weeks for Lamb, but the targets are still there and his endzone presence is undeniable.
Furthermore, he gets the Panthers who are a helpful matchup for QBs, which should help the efficiency of the targets Lamb gets. At $7,300, Lamb has a median projection of 19.14 and projected ownership of just 2.53%, making him a strong large-field GPP play.
TE: Juwan Johnson
This is more of a long shot, but it’s worth thinking that Juwan Johnson is able to continue having success. He has two games with 10+ PPR points in the last three weeks and no longer has to compete with Taysom Hill.
His route participation went from 61% to 80% last week which should lead to more opportunities down the line, and we saw a glimmer of that with his target share jumping from 11% to 16%. He makes for a low-ceiling but high-value option in smaller field GPPs.
