Week 16 NFL DFS Picks: Top Stack, Value Plays, and More
We have a full main slate on tap and James McCool is here with his Week 16 NFL DFS picks to guide you through the slate:
The Week 16 Sunday slate is around the corner, and, as always, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 16 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 16
Los Angeles Rams
Here is how the models over at Paydirtdfs.com view the top 5 QB+2s on the slate:
There are some stacks around the Rams that are appealing. The Bengals have the highest median by far at 56.37 with a ceiling of 98.65, while the 49ers have basically the same median (50.50) for around $2k less cost. However, I think there are a couple of things that stick out for the Rams that give me more confidence in their range of outcomes than the others.
The first thing is a team total of 25.25, which crosses the mark of 25+ that I look for with QB+2 stacks. This puts them slightly above SF stacks for me when looking at medians and ranges. The next part is that Stafford and Nacua have been averaging a combined 43 PPR points per game over the last three weeks with Kupp contributing another 15, giving them a recent performance of 58 PPR points as a stack.
Nacua and Kupp stand for a whopping 65% of the targets and 64% of the air yards, one of the highest two-man target shares in the league.
It’s a very easy stack to feel good about on a team that has plenty to play for in terms of playoff implications without breaking the bank.
Week 16 NFL DFS Value Picks
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
Look man, he’s going to be 45-60% owned in nearly every GPP. Do I like that? No, of course not. Am I going to eat that chalk? Yes, I absolutely will.
David Montgomery is out for the rest of the regular season with an MCL injury, and that’s going to leave a major gap in production. Granted, I do believe that the backups will step into about 50% of that gap, but the other 50% is going to go to Gibbs. He was already averaging 60% of the snaps and 45% of the rushing attempts for the team, and I think we can reasonably project him to jump to 75% and 70%, which should project for around 18 carries and 5-7 targets per game. He’s a lock in cash games and a very, very strong anchor in your GPP lineups.
WR: Jauan Jennings
While I’m not in love with the 49ers stacks (at least to the point of others), I do think that each option is strong individually. Jennings has had an awesome year, and over the last four weeks, he is averaging 15.2 PPR points per game on 7.6 targets per game and an aDOT of 10.0. With the 49ers being down to literally practice squad RBs, it’s reasonable to think they are going to turn to the air more against Miami.
With spike weeks of 28 and 25 PPR points over the last five weeks, we know the ceiling is strong here, so we should be happy to run him out as a one-off or a major piece of SF stacks.
TE: Brenton Strange
This one is easy. Evan Engram was averaging 85% of the routes and pushed a 25% TPRR, leading to a 25% target share over the last four weeks before he was shut down with an injury. In week 15 with no Engram, Strange had an 85% route participation, a 25% TPRR, and 28% of the targets, stepping into Engram’s role without a sweat.
Considering Engram was in the $5k range of price before injury, we can say that Strange is somewhere in the area of $1,500 underpriced here. He’s an easy GPP play that should come with modest ownership.
Top NFL DFS GPP Picks For Week 16
QB: Anthony Richardson
I certainly recognize that Richardson is a hell of a volatility play, but I think that he is just too cheap here, and the contest sims, another model over at Paydirt, agree. He shows up in 35% of the winning lineups from the model and has a projected ownership of 17%, meaning he is projected to be about half as highly owned as he deserves. Likewise, in the range of outcomes, he has the highest 4x rate of any QB by far at 18.50% with a median/ceiling combo of 18.29/32.42.
I would hope his ownership would come down, but even at a high mark, he makes for a strong play in most formats.
Dec 15, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) prepares to pass the ball in the second half against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Seahawks have been struggling, but JSN is a continued bright spot for them. He’s averaging a 27% market share (leads the team) over the last five weeks along with a 92% catchable target rate on 30% of the air yards. He has a lower aDOT of 7.5 but does get endzone targets, which keep his ceiling high.
He’s averaging 18.3 PPR points over the last five games, and the Vikings are giving up the best boost to opposing WRs in the league at 8.2 PPR points above average. JSN makes for a strong and relatively low-owned upside option in medium-sized GPPs.
TE: Mike Gesicki
More than anything, this is a leverage play. I think there’s going to be a lot of focus on the Bengals, and the models really like them as a stack overall. However, I think there’s also going to be relatively heavy ownership on them.
While Gesicki hasn’t been terrific as of late, he thrives when Higgins is either inactive or hampered, which could be the case this week. Over the last 5 weeks, we have seen him average 5.9 PPR points per game with three of those five seeing 10%+ targets for the team along with some end-zone usage. I like Gesicki in large-field GPPs, but not small-field or SE contests.
For a deeper dive into the Week 16 NFL DFS slate, head over to our full suite of NFL DFS ownership projections!
