The first full DFS slate is officially in the books, and Week 1 gave us plenty to reflect on while confirming much of what we already knew.

This week, I have the advantage of various Week 1 "eye tests" and metrics to guide me when providing my top stack, value picks, GPP plays, and fades.

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections available here.

Top NFL DFS Stack on DraftKings

Kansas City Chiefs

After a strong 2023 season, the Chiefs came out firing on all cylinders in their first game in 2024, scoring 27 points with three touchdowns in just 26 minutes of possession. 

The point of time of possession is often overlooked, but it can be a strong indicator of a team's upside. The Chiefs finished that game with a DBOE of 4.5%, which inspires confidence that they are still willing to be pass-heavy, even with the league trending toward more running volume with the recent two-high safety focus. The Chiefs are currently projected for 26.75 fantasy points and 2.60 touchdowns.

For reference, here is how the models at PayDirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:

The models show that Kansas City is a priority simply off medians; they have the top two highest median 3-man combos on the slate at 51.24 points and 51.06 points, respectively. 

Those two stacks, which are Mahomes/Rice and a swap of Kelce/Worthy, cost around $20k in salary on DraftKings while providing a very strong base expectation to build around. 

Not pictured here is the third variation of Kansas City, which is Mahomes/Worthy/Kelce and projected for 47.66 points. While that is adequate, there is a clear drop in value from Rashee Rice-oriented builds.

Many people may be down on Kelce, and that's a fair stance. He had just 15% of the targets and 16% of the air yards in the opener, with a Utilization Score of just 6.1. 

In 2023, Kelce finished with a Utilization Score of 9.1 and only had a handful of weeks below 7.5, which is a bit concerning. That said, if he shows lower ownership this week, I think he makes for a terrific focal point in Kansas City stacks, as elite TEs are some of the most valuable options based on positional scarcity.

Top Week 2 NFL DFS Value Plays

RB: Jordan Mason, 49ers

It's no secret that Jordan Mason is in a terrific spot if Christian McCaffrey misses another game, which seems likely. He currently projects for 15.31 fantasy points and has a price tag of just $5,200 on DraftKings. 

In the simulations over at PayDirt, he finishes with 20+ fantasy points 16.30% of the time and is a top 10 finisher at the position 39.70% of the time. 

The matchup with Minnesota is probably neutral, but considering San Francisco is once again the healthy favorite, it's a spot that we shouldn't shy away from. He's a no-brainer option at the position so long as Christian McCaffrey is out.

WR: Rashid Shaheed, Saints

Whereas Jordan Mason is likely to carry heavy ownership, this value play carries very low ownership! Shaheed currently projects for about 2% ownership across formats and carries a strong projection for his pricetag. 

His salary is $4,600, a threshold usually reserved for WR3s and weak WR2s, but his median expectation is 13.48 fantasy points. This information means he has a 22.60% chance of hitting 4 times his salary, the top indicator of value in the models. 

He had strong baselines from Week 1 with 22% of the targets and 46% of the air yards, leading to a Utilization Score of 6.1, which typically translates to an average of around 13 fantasy points per game. He's a strong option in all formats, especially in top-heavy GPPs.

TE: Theo Johnson, Giants

This year in DFS, the name of the game will be punting at the tight end position or playing an elite tight end, with nothing in between, making Theo Johnson the perfect option if you aren't playing Travis Kelce. 

He's only $2,600 on DraftKings and projects for 7.19 fantasy points. Johnson had a 76% route participation last week, and this week gets to face the Commanders, who are quite possibly the best matchup for opposing passing offenses. 

He projects for basically no ownership, making him another strong play for top-heavy GPPs where you need a lot of relative value. Make sure to have some exposure to him if you need a cheap one-off at the position.

Top Week 2 GPP Plays on DraftKings

RB: Breece Hall, Jets

Similar to last week, this is an easy call. Breece Hall is coming off incredible usage with a Utilization Score of 9.6 on 84% of the snaps, 84% of the rushing attempts, and 71% route participation. 

He projects 5 points higher than anyone else at the position with a median of 21.19 points and a ceiling of 41.46 points. He has a top finish rate of 24.90% in the simulations over at PayDirt, with the second-highest mark from Alvin Kamara at just 8.50%. 

Yes, Hall carries some ownership, but we can eat some good chalk and get creative elsewhere.

WR: Deebo Samuel, 49ers

Along the same lines as the Jordan Mason call, it's worth leveraging Deebo Samuel with the likelihood that Christian McCaffrey sits. 

Samuel's utilization was not out-of-this-world as a wide receiver, as he had 79% route participation and 32% of the targets. However, he was able to rack up seven rushing attempts, including a rushing touchdown, thanks to the void left by McCaffrey sitting. 

This kind of hybrid upside is very, very rare with wide receivers, and it comes at a significant value of $6,800 on DraftKings. I do think he will get some ownership. We have him projected in the 10-15% range, but that's not a deterrent when he is the sixth-highest owned at his position and not even in the top 10 ownership across the slate. 

He's a solid GPP option with rare upside for the price and position.

Quick note: I would have written about Cooper Kupp here, but come Sunday, his ownership will be through the roof, and I want to take someone with more relative value. That said, Kupp is an incredible play in all formats. You should play him.

TE: Brock Bowers, Raiders

We have talked about a couple of tight ends so far, but one that is interesting and isn't going to get much ownership is Brock Bowers. He is $4,400 on DraftKings and projects for 11.09 fantasy points with a ceiling of 23.98 points, offering a nice expectation combo for a relatively low price. 

Last week, I wrote about Kyle Pitts and how, if the thinking was that he would get elite usage, his $4,600 tag was around $1,000 too low. You could say the same for Bowers this week. Unlike with Pitts, there is some data to support this claim of elite usage. 

Bowers Utilization Score from Week 1 was a lofty 8.3, second only to Isaiah Likely. He finished with 78% route participation, 23% of the targets, and 27% of the air yards—all solid marks, especially for a tight end. Tight ends with this Utilization Score threshold average 12.6 fantasy points per game, which would blow away his price tag. He's a tremendous upside play especially at low ownership.

Top NFL DFS Fades for Week 2

This week, the main fade for me is Kyren Williams, but this choice comes with nuance. There is a tool over at PayDirt called the Pivot Finder, which lets you enter a player's name and assign a salary and projection threshold. The tool then spits out all the viable pivots to a player and lets you know if the player entered deserves ownership.

Let's use that tool to look at Kyren Williams ($6,800 RB projected for 16.14 fantasy points):

Based on his price and projection, a wide array of players at every position are projected to do just as well as Williams but with lower ownership. 

Filtering for only running back pivots, Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco, and Derrick Henry are available, and all project well within the expectation of Williams with much less ownership. His -40% LevX, a measure of ownership relative to upside, paints a grim picture.

If you avoid both Chase Brown and Williams in GPPs, you can likely eat as much ownership as you want elsewhere and have plenty of relative value to win.