Week 4 has arrived, and as team strengths and weaknesses become clearer, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies. I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 4 DraftKings NFL DFS plays, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades. 

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.

Top Stack:

Houston Texans

Coming off a disappointing loss to the Vikings, the Texans are in a prime spot to bounce back with a Week 4 matchup against the Jaguars. Houston has a healthy team total at 26.25 fantasy points and a good median as a QB+2 of 50.50 points for their top combination.
For reference, here is how the models at PayDirt view the best QB+2 stacks on the slate:

(Note: This set of models is from before DeVonta Smith was ruled out, making Houston even better in terms of top overall stacks)

The Texans are a little lower on this list, but they are in striking distance, and I think they are worth highlighting. Arizona is the only team above Houston in terms of team total, and the Texans' top finish rate of 7.50% is the third highest on the slate overall. Their ownership is also the highest sum of any QB+2 (41.17%), which can be good when building for different contest types.

Algorithmically, Houston makes sense based on medians, upsides, and roster construction, and the Texans also make sense from a matchup perspective. The Jaguars are currently the third-worst defense in the league against QBs, according to the DvP model here at Fantasy Life, allowing 21.7 PPR points and a boost of 3.8 PPR points above average. The Texans also run man coverage at a top rate in the league, which Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs can take full advantage of. It's a mismatch in firepower and coaching tendencies, and I want a lot of exposure to this bounce-back game.

Top Value Plays

RB: Brian Robinson Jr.

Austin Ekeler will be out in Week 4, which paves the way for a substantial workload for Brian Robinson Jr. in a great matchup as the Commanders take on the Cardinals. Robinson Jr. had his highest market shares of the year last week, when he was used on 62% of the rushing attempts and ran 61% of the routes. He also had 75% of inside-the-five rushing attempts, arguably the most important. He is underpriced at $6,100 in a great game environment and provides some excellent leverage on Jayden Daniels, who should end up as the highest-owned QB on the slate.

WR: Rashee Rice

There is no WR with a better outlook in Week 4 than Rashee Rice, and he just so happens to be underpriced. His aggregated projection (median, expected, and utilization projection) is at 17.83 points, higher than Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins. He costs just $7,300, giving him a lot of value, even with his relatively high price. Rice's ownership is likely to be high but for this high of an expectation, he makes for strong chalk. He is a better option in a Kansas City stack, which is viable, but using him as a one-off makes plenty of sense as well.

TE: Tommy Tremble

I am not in love with Tommy Tremble as a player and think he is best used as a correlative with Dalton, but it's hard to ignore the value prop. He is very cheap at just $2,700 and has a decent median-ceiling combo of 7.87 and 17.11 points. His top finish rate for the TEs on the slate is just 2.80%, but his top five finish rate is 27.30%, which is just fine for someone his price. His usage last week was less than terrific, but with no Thielen, he could pick up some extra possession targets and endzone work, giving him a pretty clear path to 15 fantasy points. I think he's worth a shot in large fields, especially as part of a Panthers' stack.

Top GPP Plays

RB: Jordan Mason

While Jordan Mason is coming off two weeks of 50%+ ownership, he let the field down last week with just 10.8 PPR points—but the points don't tell the whole story. Mason had terrific usage with a utilization score of 7.5 and the best route participation (71%) he has had this year. He's projected for 25% ownership, but that's not near enough for someone with his price and workload; the field may have soured too much on him. It's not rocket science to play the guy with a projection of nearly 20 PPR points at a sub-$7k price tag, but 75% of the field isn't making the clever play, so there's a ton of relative value to be gained.

WR: Rashid Shaheed

Another player being punished for a bad Week 3 is Rashid Shaheed, who went from 25% ownership last week to an ownership projection of 1% in Week 4. That is too drastic of a drop in ownership, considering no price jump and a middle-of-the-road matchup. Likewise, Shaheed had basically no drop in production in Week 3, when he saw 26% of the targets and 51% of the air yards, which are almost exactly the same as his season averages. He projects for 14.46 fantasy points this week, has a 20+ rate of 24.30%, and deserves more ownership than this. Jump on the flop lag wagon and go for a ride with Shaheed.

TE: Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet is an entertaining play that I think people will sleep on. In 2023, Kmet finished with 21% targets per route run and had a 19% target share on 69% of the snaps, good for a utilization score of 7.1. So far this year, his utilization score is at 7.1 as well, but I consider that closer to his floor than his ceiling. He just posted a score of 9.7 on 73% route participation and a 24% target share, along with 20% of the endzone targets. The kicker is that the Bears face the Rams this week, who have allowed the most PPR points to opposing QBs and the third-most to TEs with 14.4. Bears stacks are entirely in play, and Kmet is a great lower-owned option.

Top Fade(s)

Diontae Johnson's ownership will likely sit between 30-40% in large field GPPs this week, and I don't think those ownership numbers are entirely justified. With Dalton at the helm, Johnson (and Carolina generally) looked considerably better with 38% of the targets and 59% of the air yards on 35% targets per route run. And yes, he projects very well, with a median of 15.34 fantasy points and a ceiling of 32.66. But when you set him up against other receivers in his price range, many easy pivots are available, as visualized in the Pivot Finder over at PayDirt:

As you can see, there are a handful of direct-pivot WRs like McLaurin and Shaheed with more within arm's reach. While Johnson is a good play, there are comparable options in terms of price and projection, so there isn't much reason for him to be significantly more or less owned than any of the others.

For example, as mentioned previously, Shaheed saw 25% ownership last week and is seeing around 1% in Week 4 because of one bad game. The difference in ownership between Shaheed and Johnson is not rational.

In cash games, use Diontae Johnson, but in GPPs, he should only be used as part of a stack, not as a one-off.